Is the US Stock Market’s Upward Trend Correlated with Inflation Reduction? (Weekly Analysis)

by | May 18, 2023 | Invest During Inflation | 1 comment




Back with a new video! During the last 1 week, Nasdaq hit a 2023 high, Google went on a parabolic run, Twitter appointed a new CEO, inflation showed further signs of cooling.

The only thing that didn’t change much – S&P500 continued to trade in a tight range. So where is the market headed from here? Are all the technology stocks going to rally till the end of the year? Let’s discuss them in this video.

Stocks covered in the video (technical analysis) – SPY, Apple, Tesla, Google + Option trades

0:00 – Intro
0:30 – Market Recap
2:04 – Market Outlook
3:37 – SPY Technical Analysis (i.e. S&P500 – Broader Market)
6:21 – Apple Technical Analysis
8:47 – Tesla Technical Analysis
12:32 – Google Technical Analysis
14:44 – Option Trades
17:37 – End Thoughts

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In the past week, the US stock market continued to climb higher, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both reaching new record highs. Investors seemed to be optimistic about the prospects of the economy recovering and businesses reopening, as well as the ongoing vaccination rollout and stimulus measures. At the same time, inflation fears appeared to have subsided, with falling bond yields signaling a lower risk of rapid price increases.

One of the main factors driving the stock market rally was the latest round of corporate earnings reports, which showed impressive results from many companies. For example, Apple Inc. reported a 54% increase in sales and a 110% increase in profits in its fiscal second quarter, while Alphabet Inc. (Google’s parent company) reported a 34% increase in revenue and a 162% increase in profits. These strong earnings results helped lift the technology and communications sectors, which have been among the market leaders in recent months.

Another factor supporting the market was the macroeconomic data released during the week, which showed mixed but mostly positive signs. GDP growth for the first quarter of 2021 came in at an annualized rate of 6.4%, slightly lower than expected but still a sign of solid expansion. However, initial jobless claims increased unexpectedly to 553,000, suggesting that the labor market recovery may not be as robust as hoped. On the other hand, consumer confidence surged to its highest level since the pandemic began, indicating that households are feeling more optimistic about their financial situation and the economy at large.

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Perhaps the most notable trend of the week was the reversal of the recent inflation scare. Inflation fears have been one of the main concerns for investors in recent months, as trillions of dollars in stimulus and pent-up demand threaten to drive up prices. However, this week saw a sharp drop in bond yields, which are often seen as a proxy for inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.6% for the first time since March, suggesting that investors are less worried about price increases in the near term. This decline in bond yields helped boost growth-oriented stocks, which had been underperforming in recent weeks as the market rotated towards more defensive and value-oriented sectors.

Overall, the US stock market had a strong week, with many major indices hitting new records and several high-profile companies reporting robust earnings. Falling inflation expectations and improving consumer sentiment were also positive signs for investors. However, there are still risks on the horizon, including the ongoing pandemic and uncertainty about the pace of the economic recovery. Investors will need to remain vigilant and keep an eye on the latest data and news in order to navigate the market’s rapidly changing landscape.

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