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I do not think the market is pricing in the real possibility of another peak in inflation. When all of these things make it into the data that Fed looks at over the next few months, Jerome Powell might surprise the market by raising interest rates higher than expected or keep them higher longer than expected, or both. That doesn’t mean another 75 basis point raise on interest rates right now. It could be a couple 25 basis point raises that turn into 50. Or a couple 50 basis point raises that turn into 75. Or that interest rates stay closer to 4% instead of 3.25 through 2025.
But here’s the thing: Rents account for 32% of the CPI, don’t actually go down very often, and can lag the rest of the CPI by up to a year. Energy accounts for 7.5% of the CPI. We were been subsidizing energy costs almost all of 2022 with deployments from the strategic petroleum reserve. These deployments just stopped, right as winter drove up demand while the EU sanctions on Russian oil and gas lower the world’s effective oil supply. What did you think would happen?!
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📝 Resources & References 📝
@markets BlackRock’s Li: Stock Markets Are Pricing ‘Take Off’ From Here:
@CNBC Stock market’s final leg down looms as weak earnings season, says Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson:
@CNBCtelevision Fed Chair Powell: There will be more rate increases to get to our 2 percent inflation goal:
Stock market is basically going nowhere for the rest of the year: Goldman Sachs:
January Inflation Report – Consumer Price Increases Slowed Slightly:
Jobs report shows increase of 517,000 in January, crushing estimates, as unemployment rate hit 53-year low:
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The 2023 Stock Market Crash has been a long time coming. Since the end of the 2020 pandemic, the stock market has been in a state of flux. Investors have been cautious, as the global economy has been slow to recover.
The stock market crash of 2023 was the result of a combination of factors. The first was the increasing rate of inflation. Inflation is a measure of the rate at which prices for goods and services are rising. As the cost of living rises, people have less money to spend, and this in turn affects the stock market.
The second factor was the increasing cost of borrowing money. Interest rates have been rising steadily since the pandemic began. This means that it is more expensive to borrow money, and this in turn affects the stock market.
The third factor was the increasing uncertainty in the global economy. The pandemic has caused huge disruptions in the global economy, and investors have been hesitant to invest in the stock market. This has caused the stock market to become more volatile, and this has contributed to the crash.
The stock market crash of 2023 has been a painful experience for investors. Many have lost a lot of money, and some have even gone bankrupt. The crash has also had a negative effect on the global economy, as it has caused a decrease in consumer spending and investment.
The good news is that the stock market crash of 2023 is not expected to last forever. As the global economy continues to recover, the stock market should begin to stabilize. In the meantime, it is important to remember that investing in the stock market is a risky business, and it is important to be aware of the risks before investing.
It all depends on the knowledge and strategies employed, but I've seen people make seven-figure profits in declining markets just as easily as they do in rising ones. There is no denying that some people have benefited significantly from the recession and crisis.
Are there any members only videos posted lately? I have not received any email in couple of months.But my account has been charged promptly every month.
Thanks for sharing however now I confuse, is the inflation comes because we buy food? or thanks to government endless spending and printing while the fed cutting? it's crazy that you all want rate hike and lay off but when you all like robots no wonder you all buy the story of necessary with rate hike. Good luck and enjoy life.
I’ve seen a job be hired and fired and quit from many many times ,how does the government keep exact numbers ,is that job a new hire or what ,or just in some system of off and on employment.??????
Given the high inflation, the use of coupons is more widespread than ever and many people rely on them not only for the purchase of food but also for clothing and much more. The transition to the 8112 digital coupon format is imminent.
Qples by Fobi is the only platform able to provide physical / digital coupons anywhere in the world redeemable in real time! This is very valuable for the big CPG brands as they allow them to improve their Roi but above all customer loyalty, which has proven to change brands if the situation is advantageous.
McDonalds, burger King and many other brands could use Qples by fobi coupons to increase customer loyalty, Roi and improve their margins. Given the high inflation that has led to the reduction in consumer purchasing power, CPGs are looking for new ways to attract customers. I think the arrival of digital coupons and the transition to 8112 has been accelerated by all of this. The decline in margins and profits that we are witnessing of many tech companies, once considered leaders, confirm the shift of the consumer in search of better opportunities and bargains offered by coupons.
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So during market crash market/stocks are getting hammered which means the best time to buy more stocks because its very affordable this time.
You provide brilliant content in an engaging manner. Please be careful about accepting sponsorship from Masterpiece and pushing the product. Soemthing is not right with their offering.
So everyone knows that the crash is coming but the stock market is not pricing it in. How is this even possible?
I have no risk because I want to be free and use the decentralized ecosystem of Utopia P2P to make money and communicate.
Why is anyone surprised? The Fed has been signaling for months that there is no pause coming and that when if finally does come, rates will stay high for longer. All the hype about a “pivot” right around the corner is just hopium.
americas/west war on russia did this
Most times it amazes me greatly the way I move from an average lifestyle to earning over 63k per month, utter shock is the word. I have understood a lot in the past few years to doubt that opportunities abound in the financial markets, The only thing is to know where to focus.All thanks to MASKOFFAID
The market has been burying it's head in the sand but there is no where to hide when the recession takes hold. Inflation is still red hot and the Fed has no choice but to continue to raise rates! Unfortunately his hands are tied on one hand we go into a recession or price keep raising out of control. There is no avoiding it. Once earnings start plummeting and layoffs increase which is enevitable the s&p is going to expierence a 20%-30% decline this year. FACT: THE MARKET HAS NEVER I REPEAT NEVER FOUND A BOTTOM WHILE THE FED IS TIGHTENING!!!!!!!
wdym not many people saw it coming? its pretty basic economics when you introduce money into an economy without producing more the price of things go up
Making money is not the same as keeping it there is a reason why investments aren't well taught in schools, the examples you gave are well stationed, the market crisis gave me my first millions, people shy away from hard times, I embrace them.. well at least my advisor does lol
If the government cared about inflation they would cut tax