Jeff Klingelhofer, Thornburg Investment Management co-head of investments and portfolio manager, joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the latest market trends, why he believes investors should avoid Big Tech and focus instead on international stocks, and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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BREAKING: Recession News
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As the global economy continues to grapple with the aftermath of the pandemic, financial experts are closely monitoring the signs of an impending recession. One such expert is Jeff Klingelhofer, a portfolio manager and head of investments at Thornburg Investment Management. Klingelhofer believes that a recession is still on the horizon, likely to hit later this year or in early 2024.
Although economies around the world have shown signs of recovery as vaccination efforts from Covid-19 ramp up, Klingelhofer argues that many underlying problems still persist. The unprecedented stimulus measures implemented by governments and central banks to curb the economic downturn have created inflated asset prices and increased debt burdens. As a result, there are concerns that these measures may have delayed an inevitable economic reckoning.
One of the primary drivers of this concern is the significant increase in global debt. Governments worldwide have taken on substantial amounts of debt to support struggling businesses and provide relief to individuals affected by the pandemic. While these measures were necessary to prevent a complete collapse, the long-term consequences of this debt burden cannot be ignored.
Klingelhofer suggests that the increasing debt levels will likely lead to limited fiscal flexibility in the future. As countries grapple with this burden, they may need to cut spending or raise taxes, both of which can have a detrimental effect on economic growth. Additionally, higher interest rates may be necessary to control inflation, further inhibiting economic expansion.
Furthermore, Klingelhofer points out that the current economic recovery is heavily reliant on government support and temporary measures such as enhanced unemployment benefits and business loans. Once these measures are scaled back or removed, the true state of the economy may be revealed. It is possible that we may witness a significant decline in consumer spending and business investment, leading to a contraction in economic activity.
The global supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic also present a concerning challenge for sustained economic growth. Shipping delays, raw material shortages, and rising input costs have contributed to inflationary pressures, affecting various sectors. These challenges could persist for some time, hindering the recovery and potentially leading to a recession.
While there are factors pointing towards a potential recession, it is important to note that economic forecasting is notoriously challenging and subject to unforeseen events. Nevertheless, Jeff Klingelhofer’s insights serve as a reminder that the road to economic recovery is not without obstacles.
As governments and central banks navigate the delicate balance between stimulating growth and managing debt, it is crucial to remain vigilant and ensure that sustainable economic policies are implemented. By addressing the underlying concerns and focusing on long-term structural adjustments, policymakers can lay the foundation for a more resilient and stable future.
In conclusion, Jeff Klingelhofer’s warnings about a potential recession later this year or in early 2024 highlight the ongoing risks and uncertainties surrounding the global economy. While the situation remains fluid, his insights urge individuals and policymakers to remain cautious and proactive in preparing for the potential economic challenges ahead.
Fundamentals say this should happen. But do fundamentals matter anymore? That's the real question.
Americans have to STEAL or use credit cards paying 30% interest in order to survive. The game is up. Collapse is imminent
This topic is been on the news since 2020. First it was they expected a recession later 2021 or early 2022, then By the end of 2022, then end of 2022 early 2023, then end of 2023 now it's end of 2023 early 2024. Aren't they tired of this BS ? bunch of lies and brainwashing
Ken, the macro expert
No inflation in 23 or 24. This is not a recession, I have been through two recessions and this looks nothing like a recession. Interest rates will be cut and stock market will rise rapidly!
The geniuses have been making these same claims for the last two years! It's always the same story, "we're expecting recession either late this year or early next!" Jeez! Just ask the resident CNBC expert, Jim Kramer! Hahahahaha!!!
wrong
It was supposed to be Q1, then Q2, then Q3… so why not push it to Q4/Q1 bahahha these idiots
Rather than attempting to predict future recessions and risking financial losses, a more effective strategy is to build a well-diversified portfolio that can withstand various market conditions. This approach has allowed some individuals to consistently generate substantial returns, averaging around 150K every quarter as reported by Bloomberg.
Oil is over $80, which is $20 above Fed Target $60. Unemployment is below 4%. Look for more quarter points rate hikes this year unless both of these conditions change.
cnbc has to stop loading the content with millenials – nobody under 60 should open their mouths on the market- they are CLUELESS!!!
Nearly everyone has been calling for a recession since Biden's been in office. Still not a thing. It's like they actually want one. Despite continued low unemployment ( 3.5% ) and low inflation ( under 3%). Notice the chyron … "Dow logs best day since June 15". All recessions have started under a Republicant President.
We’ve already swung to an extreme! This rally is a huge fake out.
It’s a race to see if high interest rates will quell inflation before they choke the economy.
Sitting at 76% cash so doesn't matter where the market heads from here.
I thought it was Tony Robbins.
Inflation isn’t rolling over at all. It is increasing again. Oil is now up 25%, housing cost hasn’t gone down, food cost is ridiculous, the consumer is tapped out, student loan repayments will further stress the consumer. It is a dumpster fire.
The recession is here.
We already had the recession, that's why none of the data makes sense to anyone. Remember recession lite, the 2 negative quarters of GDP which Brandon renamed to "not a recession". If another one hits it likely won't be this year or next. We are in a meltup and it won't stop until there is a parabolic blowoff top during the pause. This isn't rocket science, look at a damn chart once in awhile.
i love the only a recession optimism!
I've been quite unsure about investing in this current market and at the same time I feel it's the best time to get started on the market. i was at a seminar and the host spoke about making over $972,000 within 3 Months with a capital of $200,000. I just need creative ideas to afford my retirement