Jeremy Siegel of Wharton asks: Can the Fed justify projecting a recession as ‘appropriate monetary policy’?

by | Mar 28, 2023 | Recession News | 41 comments

Jeremy Siegel of Wharton asks: Can the Fed justify projecting a recession as ‘appropriate monetary policy’?




Wharton School Professor Jeremy Siegel joins ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss whether the stock market should be more worried about the message coming from bonds following the Fed’s latest rate hike this week and more. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:

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The Federal Reserve’s actions during economic downturns are always scrutinized, and for good reason. Recently, there has been a growing debate regarding the appropriateness of the Fed “projecting” a recession as part of its monetary policy. This issue has come to the forefront due to the recent shift in the Fed’s outlook, which has been described as more “dovish” than in the past.

Jeremy Siegel, a professor of finance at Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, has been at the forefront of this debate. In a recent op-ed piece, Siegel argues that projecting a recession as “appropriate monetary policy” could be dangerous and counterproductive.

Siegel argues that the Fed’s role is to maintain price stability and promote full employment, not to forecast recessions or to manipulate market expectations. Moreover, projecting a recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy. By signaling that a recession is coming, the Fed could cause businesses and consumers to pull back on spending and investment, which could lead to a weaker economy.

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Furthermore, Siegel points out that projecting a recession could be interpreted as a lack of confidence in the economy. This could create further uncertainty and damage investor confidence, which could have a negative impact on the financial markets.

There is also the concern that projecting a recession could limit the Fed’s policy options in the future. If the Fed announces that a recession is imminent, it could limit the effectiveness of future monetary policy measures. For example, if the Fed were to cut interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy and avoid a recession, it could be perceived as a desperate move that was only necessary because of the Fed’s earlier projections.

Despite these concerns, there are some who argue that projecting a recession is appropriate in certain circumstances. For example, if the Fed believes that a recession is inevitable and that a preemptive strike is necessary to avoid an even worse downturn, then projecting a recession could be seen as a necessary evil.

Regardless of which side of the debate you fall on, it is clear that projecting a recession is a complicated and potentially dangerous move. It is important for the Fed to carefully consider its actions and avoid doing anything that could harm the economy or undermine confidence in the financial markets. Ultimately, the goal of the Fed should be to promote long-term economic growth and stability, while also working to mitigate the negative impacts of economic downturns.

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41 Comments

  1. Bill Moyer

    We had little to zero inflation for over a decade.

  2. G.P. Rufino

    The problem with Powell is he doesn't listen to the professor.

  3. Chris Bluebird

    It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone is the 15th when the government issue a new batch of Bonds. I have approximately $350k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?

  4. jessica moore

    I still blame the FED for this, because in the end they benefit by either buying off the failed banks cheaper or something. The fed can print credit as long as someone will borrow it into existence, but they cannot print product (or production).

  5. steve

    As recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economists have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.

  6. M Oliveira

    how can they project inflation as appropriate monetary policy? It's the boy who cried wolf vs the boy who cried sheep arguing about what lie is the best. It's the next logical step. If the sheep get eaten because you cried wolf, you start crying sheep so that no one notices the sheep are missing. It's scary because people are reading Oprah's the secret. They have magical thinking. they even believe in war that just good news or positive thinking is what effects the outcome. That's called irrational.

  7. Marcus Prendiville

    I really feel left aside hearing and seeing several testimonies from people on profits they make from Bitcoin/Forex Investment. Can someone recommend a good expert that trade on my behalf and generate profit for me.

  8. Reda Elbahi

    Is this creature a real economy professor or just a low interest rate cheerleader ?

  9. William Tukey, Jr

    Mr. Siegel, Given where we are with inflation–what would you do?

  10. Vivian gall

    In parallel with escalation in the recent years, the recession is now the 'most likely output for the economy' and i cannot imagine being a victim of circumstances, my portfolio got a big hit, holding it further wont be any good, ive heard of people acquring hundreds of thousand even on red seasons, how can I certify this?

  11. Pablo Albo

    A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. <It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains

  12. Frank Bruno

    Powell knows by raising interest the fastest in history they would cause a criss they want that to bring down inflation faster

  13. Shitluck

    The fed is trying to stop inflation and the effects It’ll have on everyday Americans. Billionaires are trying to convince regular Americans that the fed is wrong and making mistakes. Where was this talk when the fed was printing money aside from Elon who I believe actually called out the fed in both situations.

  14. Philip Mark

    Yeah markets haven't been deeming the Fed's guidance that they will maintain high rates regardless of swelling debt costs in order to control inflation as credible. I woulld underweight stocks for a little as the market begins to correct because honestly I still think stock prices are massively inflated at the moment. I have approximately $550k stagnant in my port_folio that needs growth. What is the best way to take advantage of this downturn?

  15. G4drdbl

    This is no news flash. The Feds job is to control inflation. To do that you have to slow the economy. That inevitably leads to recession. We can only hope it's a mild one.

  16. Thomas Shelby

    New highs in 2024 with tech leading the way

  17. hush bash

    In the "Recession Joe Biden" economy local businesses are feeling the pressure from higher food prices – seeing them double, sometimes triple what they used to be. Just another let's go Brandon moment

  18. J Cora

    Everything’s fine. Buy stocks.

  19. Daniel Ramirez

    I think what te FED is doing is incomprehensible and suicide. 3.5% inflation would be an achievement already after all that money printing.

  20. Ernie

    While the Fed raises short-term rates, and the market lowers long-term rates, banks are caught having to pay high short rates to depositors, while investing at low long rates. This is a formula for more distress in the banking sector. Can the Fed not see this?

  21. Y S

    Pump more, SP to 4800,Yeah!

  22. John Dingle

    If powell holds rates. Economy slowly gets worse and worse. While inflation slowly goes away. A recession is the only way now. To lower inflation. Government cannot afford higher rates.

  23. John Dingle

    Every 1% in inflation is like $320 billion in extra costs to government in interest on debt.

  24. John Dingle

    With a soft landing, just gonna stagflate. More job loss, with higher inflation. And negative gdp.

  25. John Dingle

    Money is drying up… without more stimulus, just gonna slowly wither

  26. none none

    This is what happens when corrupt politicians change the definition of recession and naive voters believe them !!

  27. Terry judge

    America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

  28. Dawn Albright

    The truth is, with the recent economy. Everyone needs more than their salary to be financially stable. The best thing to do with your money is to invest it properly, because money left for savings always ends up being used with no return….

  29. Jim Falbo

    Siegel should replace Powell, and Yellen should be fired. This would calm markets.

  30. Colin Jarvis

    Rates aren’t even 5% and people are panicking. If the Fed reverses course inflation will get much worse

  31. Daniel Pugh

    The more I see these old as mf disagree with what the fed is doing the more I agree with the fed.

  32. Gregory Ho

    For the Fed which has 400 PHDs, it turns out that the solution to this inflationary problem is a leaf from the Austrian School, i.e. just let creative destruction take place and the economy will self-correct.

  33. Handsome_Hero

    Jezza Seagull swoops in to the rescue.

  34. Glen Bert

    Given the situation, I think we need to start seeing videos on "How to survive the present recession." In reality, it's a total failure. I was amazed that some people could still make more than $408k in a short amount of time. If that's still the situation, could someone explain how?

  35. AtmaVictu

    With full employment and a good economy is silly to have inflation at 2%, we are good even at 3/4%. Only idiots can be so narrow minded

  36. Olivia Amelia

    Thank you for your videos mate. I will advice traders especially newbies to have orientation of trading before they get involved in it because the market has been unstable, forget predictions and start making a good profit now because future valuations are all speculations and guesses. when news gets bearish start buying. "Keep it simple" That correction was the best thing that happened to me. but all thanks to Grayson Miles for his amazing skills for help me to earn 7 BTC through trading chart..

  37. Matt J. Damon

    This recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. No more manipulation of other economies in order to control inflation. Sure is obvious that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

  38. Ilsa Henry

    Don't take your eyes off the PRIZE ….. no matter what the distractions maybe be around you. UNDERSTAND YOUR PURPOSE, I went from living an average life to making over 63k per month. It's amazing. The financial markets are full with opportunities, but I've learned a lot over the past few years to doubt that. The key is knowing where to focus. Well appreciated, Rodger Michael Karl.

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