JPMorgan’s David Kelly suggests a decreasing likelihood of a noteworthy recession at present.

by | Sep 29, 2023 | Recession News | 46 comments

JPMorgan’s David Kelly suggests a decreasing likelihood of a noteworthy recession at present.




David Kelly, JP Morgan Asset Management chief global strategist, and Savita Subramanian, head of U.S. equity and quantitative strategy at Bank of America Securities, join ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss what the latest strong job reports suggest, the odds of a recession, and more….(read more)


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As the global economy continues to recover from the unprecedented impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing sense of optimism among experts. According to David Kelly, chief global strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, the odds of a significant recession are “going down” at present.

Kelly’s positive stance is based on several factors. First and foremost, the global vaccination efforts have gained momentum, leading to a decline in COVID-19 cases and a gradual reopening of economies. This has resulted in an increase in consumer spending, investment, and business activities, which are crucial for economic growth.

Furthermore, there has been significant fiscal and monetary stimulus implemented by governments and central banks worldwide. These measures have provided a much-needed boost to economies, helping to stabilize financial markets and support businesses and individuals throughout the pandemic.

Another important indicator of economic recovery is the rebound in employment rates. Many countries have witnessed a decline in unemployment figures as businesses resume operations and hire more workers. This trend indicates a return to stable economic conditions and increased consumer confidence.

Kelly also points out that many households have built up significant savings during the pandemic due to lockdown restrictions and reduced spending opportunities. As economies reopen, this excess savings could potentially fuel a surge in consumer spending, further accelerating economic recovery.

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However, while the odds of a significant recession are decreasing, Kelly emphasizes that it does not mean the risks have been completely eliminated. There remain several challenges that could hinder the recovery process, such as new variants of the virus, supply chain disruptions, or policy missteps.

Moreover, the global economic landscape remains divergent, with some countries recovering faster than others. Variations in vaccination rates, government policies, and economic structures can create disparities in economic performance and growth potential.

In conclusion, the optimism expressed by JPMorgan’s David Kelly regarding the declining odds of a significant recession is a positive sign for the global economy. The successful distribution of vaccines, ongoing fiscal support, and pent-up consumer demand are all contributing factors to this positive outlook. However, it is essential to remain cautious and monitor various risk factors that could impact the recovery process.

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46 Comments

  1. 24theMoney

    She got it wrong for the last 12 months. Flip flopper

  2. W. Kurt Dobson

    I am new to the stock market. Every stock that I bought so far, I was out of luck because I bought them when they were expensive. I feel I missed out on all the stock opportunities so far for the tech stocks.I believe having 175K yearly income would be a good investment so I want to plug all my savings into the stock market. I know this sounds a bit dull but I would like to know if I should learn investing or let somebody else (more capable like a FA) do it for me? Please share your thoughts. I am kind of tired of searching for a good stock to buy and losing all the good opportunities

  3. Larry Adolf

    >I Will advice traders especially newbies to have orientation of trading before they get involved in it because the Crypto market has been unstable, forget predictions and start making a good profit now because future valuations are all speculations and guesses. when news gets bearish start buying. "Keep it simple" That correction was the best thing that happened me. but all thanks to Mr K <for his amazing skills for help me to earn 11 BTC through trading chart..

  4. Kane James

    Recession is most likely the result of an external factor. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a federal reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend support to the idea that a new multilateral world order is in the works.

  5. Paris Filion

    I just need to get my own apartment man

  6. Skipzilla

    The Recession that wont be called a Recession. Massive Inflation still rocking the poor and middle class, Nominal Wage Growth not keeping pace, credit card debt skyrocketing to all time highs, saving rates plummeting, saving accounts and 401k's being syphoned and deplenished, and trillions more needing to be wrung from the system that has debt at 129% of GDP. Stocks are only averaging a yearly 4.5% return since 2019. But, Real Estate is up over 45%. Look for at least one more rate hike. Stocks will pull back slightly then stall for a few years, and real estate will slowly decline to a bottom in 2026…and stay depressed for 20+ years. Also, plug in 3.5% average inflation for the next decade or more…..it's the new normal.

  7. H S

    One time I would not miss her interviews, I skip now and perhaps forever, just as this one.

  8. Casey21

    The labor market not being affected by rate hikes yet is scary. If that is the case, how much higher do rates go and for how long? If the odds of recession go down it is because the odds of stagflation shot up.

  9. NZNSI Inc

    JP Morgan is desperately trying to get a better short position before things get worse

  10. MML 1

    cnbc please drop these lagard contributers: savita, lizzie, negative nathan, guy, ,moses…..etc…… the list goes on…your content doesn't hold water

  11. MML 1

    savita please resign, y are big analysts not accountable singing the oct retest lows for months…how does she still have a job? wtf…….never again w /her

  12. On The Money

    That's it… recession cancelled. Soft landing coming up. CNBC confirmed.

  13. Dan Good

    Recession down from 100% to 99%

  14. Charles Berkeley

    Of course, a cooked jobs report in which all jobs are created equal and political theater taken to the wire so that we pay our bills is leading us to sunnier pastures. There is no reality left in this country. Call the U.S. what it is: Failing. You have to admit there's a problem before anything can get better. If we continue to refuse to admit it, it'll only get worse.

  15. Sian

    Can the so called experts talk to each other and make up their mind about recession?

  16. John Merlino

    Yes now is the time to run to stocks like NVDA with a Forward PE of 84 and a Price to Sales ratio of 35 ! AI needs years to mature, is just another bubble mania. Only seven stocks have pushed the S&P up in 2023. This market needs to align to reality, interest rates, and declining corporate margins.

  17. Omid Riahi

    No fundamental, just go with the wind. Funny to see these people managing multi-million Dollar companies. We'll see the other side of the market in the summer

  18. John Merlino

    All Jobs are not created equal, but are counted that way. First of all, these numbers are cooked, manipulated, and do not really factor in 'participation rate changes', seasonal jobs, severance delays, etc. We've had 550,000 Hightech job layoffs since the start of this year, but most white-collar jobs get a few months minimally of severance and would not show up immediately. Also, the new jobs created showing in April and May are in Leisure and Entertainment, Construction, etc and those jobs are now filled for the summer. We are so capable of using real data if the folks in power wanted better information. ADP keeps track of job/payrolls and would be a better data set than surveys and guesses! Also, the white-collar tech folks getting laid off might just be retiring and not looking for further jobs. 1/3rd of our population is baby Boomers readying for retirement (~98m). Debates are not needed, just know that the 5%+ Fed Rate will break banks and commercial real estate soon enough, with or without a rising unemployment rate.

  19. Handsome_Hero

    Uh oh… that means the odds of a significant recession are going up

  20. Bruno M

    Has inflation dropped?

  21. mooretim27

    Savita speaks with forked tongue.

  22. Tom

    Way to go America! Thank you Biden and democrats!!

  23. World Peace plz

    a significance of recession is too early to forecast because the focus is still on inflation

  24. raj lippy

    judging by the spike in credit debt to all time highs, the depleted household savings to multi decade lows, the spike in delinquencies, defaults and repos, the unaffordability of housing…..i'm guessing a large portion of the country is already in their own private recessions… just a matter of time before banks start feeling the crunch, as personal bankruptcies start rolling in….homelessness crisis kicks in and these out of touch Wall St. shills come back and tell us a recession looks imminent… of course, they will have made their money by then, gas lighting the mom and pop investors into believing alls just fine and dandy out there.

  25. Sheep of The Shepherd7392

    i dont believe it, in reality the numbers are far worse than they want to admit

  26. goutam reddy

    Shame on these jokers

  27. kiran kumar sukumar

    Savita will roll it the way you want. She has a dice for a tongue

  28. cozyslor

    Wow, Savita's comments are completely incoherent. Word salad.

  29. Spikey

    BeCareful of the trap guys

  30. George Maximus

    They themselves have very conservative allocation and yet telling people to buy more equities

  31. Peaceful Sunsets

    If you listened to Svita, you lost so much money. The biggest bear in the market.

  32. R S2002

    Inflation is dropping and the bullish sentiment has returned. We just need macro market conditions to improve. Namely the ukraine Russia conflict to end.

  33. Dave R

    Lets play everyone guesses

  34. Brian Tep

    analyst recommend a buy after stocks have already recovered 75%, great work team

  35. Knowho P

    Right…..pumping the market so they can rug pull it on retail investors, who now think recession is not coming. Typical market cycle…wake up people and look at ALL economic indicators….numbers don’t lie.

  36. Tom Drummy

    I don’t believe any data reported by news media. None…….

  37. bergen34

    If the odds are going down, it means a recession is more likely not less. This guy dont know numbers.

  38. Noo

    Stock market soaring

  39. Brandon Curley

    These ppl are so disconnected from regular people

  40. Glow Wurm

    Chinas reopening crashing (to recessionary levels), Germany going into recession, oil and metals screaming recession, Baltic exchange collapsing… these guys making predictions of "4300" but then revising and revising up? Does that give you confidence that they actually know what they're talking about?

    Be careful, its there job to pump, pump, pump they are nearly always Bullish because they want capture as much liquidity as they can before they rug pull!

  41. Christian Romero

    This is the longest time in the U.S. history not being in a recession. Recessions are needed for the economy to grow. The Fed knows this, and they will continue to raise rates. Don't fall for the spin keep the cash on the side line.

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