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LEARN ABOUT: Investing During Inflation
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
HOW TO INVEST IN SILVER: Silver IRA Investing
The decade of the 1980s was a transitional period in the global economy, marked by significant changes in the behavior of key economic indicators such as inflation, stock market performance, interest rates, home prices, and nominal versus real values. While the specific circumstances of the 1980s may not be exactly replicable in the present day, there are still valuable lessons to be learned from this era about how these factors interact and impact overall economic growth.
Inflation
During the 1970s, inflation rates in the United States had reached alarming levels, with some years seeing double-digit increases in prices. In response, the Federal Reserve under the leadership of Paul Volcker implemented a series of tight monetary policies designed to curb inflation and stabilize the economy. This led to a recession in the early 1980s, but ultimately succeeded in bringing inflation rates down from their peak. The lesson here is that while short-term pain may be necessary to address systemic economic issues, it is possible to tangle them with a long-term vision and plan.
Stock Market
The 1980s was a time of explosive growth in the stock market, with a bull market that lasted for most of the decade. This was due in part to the increased availability of individual retirement accounts (IRAs) and other investment vehicles that enabled greater participation in the market from everyday investors. Additionally, the deregulation of financial markets allowed for more creative investment strategies and product offerings. However, the decade also saw several major market crashes and corrections, including the Black Monday crash of 1987. The lesson for us is that stock market growth is not always consistent or predictable and can be impacted by external factors beyond our control.
Interest Rates
The interest rates in the 1980s were also volatile, marked by sharp increases and decreases in response to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. High inflation rates in the early years of the decade led to higher interest rates, which in turn helped to slow inflation. However, as inflation rates decreased, interest rates also lowered, resulting in an increase in borrowing and lending activity. The lesson we can gather from this is that interest rates are a critical driver of macroeconomic activity, and that they can have significant ripple effects across multiple sectors of the economy.
Home Prices
The 1980s were a time of relative stability in home prices, with modest growth rates that were largely in line with inflation. However, some areas of the country (especially those with a high population growth rate) did experience significant increases in home prices, leading to concerns about affordability and accessibility. An important lesson here is that housing prices are often influenced by factors outside of a local market, including government policies, demographic trends, and macroeconomic conditions.
Nominal vs Real
Finally, the 1980s serves as a useful case study about the difference between nominal and real values. Nominal values are those that are unadjusted for inflation, while real values take inflation into account. Understanding the distinction between these two types of values is critical for making informed decisions about investments or other financial choices. It’s a notable lesson that one has to take inflation into account while projecting long term value.
In conclusion, while the 1980s had its own unique challenges and opportunities, it still presents valuable insight into the inner workings of the economy. By taking into account the lessons learned in the past, individuals and societies can better prepare for future economic changes and make more informed decisions.
Consider a new row for Adjusted GDP or REAL GDP (GDP – CPI)?
Are there data out there for New Home Formations? It would be fascinating to see how: 1) Vacancy Rates, 2) New Home Formations, and 3) New Homes Sold all relate to each other.
30 day T Bills are at 5.4%. That's where I'm moving my emergency fund.
Great share!!
Zuber, I soooo wish you guys would add INVENTORY as another row on this sheet. That is what makes it different than 1982.
So 2023…is most like 1982. inflation coming down, unemployment getting higher, maybe one more year of real home price depreciation, maybe one more year of bank failures.
If we’ve had peak inflation already, it’s the 70s/80s much quicker and magnitudes less than the 70s we effectively are already in the 80s.. one year for the 70s decade now behind us, 1 year for the 80s decade in process for two months already! They should raise savings rate (to stop the outflow) and lend more 6-7% residential mortgage money and they can stay in business 🙂