Deutsche Bank has predicted that a major recession is in store for the U.S. by the end of next year. The bank’s chief U.S. economist, Matthew Luzzetti, joins CBS News’ Mola Lenghi and Nikki Battiste to discuss what’s fueling the forecast and the possible implications.
#News #Recession #Economy
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Deutsche Bank predicts major U.S. recession
In a recent report, Deutsche Bank has announced its prediction of a major recession in the United States. The global financial services company believes that the U.S. economy is headed for a downturn that could have significant implications for the country and the world at large.
The report from Deutsche Bank points to several key factors that are driving this forecast. One of the main concerns is the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, which has already caused significant volatility in global markets. The ongoing trade tensions have the potential to disrupt supply chains and hinder international trade, which could have a damaging effect on the U.S. economy.
Additionally, Deutsche Bank notes that the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy could further exacerbate the situation. With interest rates on the rise, borrowing becomes more expensive for businesses and consumers, which can result in reduced spending and investment. The report suggests that these monetary policy decisions could contribute to a slowdown in economic growth.
The potential impacts of a U.S. recession are far-reaching. Not only would it have consequences for the American economy, but it could also have a significant knock-on effect on global markets and trading partners. As the largest economy in the world, the U.S. plays a critical role in the global economic landscape, and a recession in the country could have ripple effects across the world.
While Deutsche Bank’s prediction is certainly concerning, it’s important to note that economic forecasting is inherently uncertain. There are always multiple factors at play in the global economy, and it’s impossible to predict with absolute certainty how events will unfold. Nonetheless, the report from Deutsche Bank serves as a reminder of the potential risks and challenges that the U.S. economy currently faces.
It will be crucial for policymakers, businesses, and consumers to monitor the situation closely and take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential impact of a U.S. recession. Proactive steps to strengthen the economy and minimize risks will be essential in navigating any downturn that may occur.
As the U.S. economy continues to face uncertainty and challenges, it’s clear that careful oversight and thoughtful action will be needed to navigate the potential recession that Deutsche Bank has predicted. The implications of such a recession would be significant, and it will be important for all stakeholders to be prepared for any potential downturn.
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Why?
More context https://youtu.be/gSrBDhePyTs
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I am compelled to share what Analytical Associates sent to media last week:
Bankruptcies: up 33% M/M, commercial up 34%
First-time unemployment claims: up 200k M/M
Foreclosures: up 50k M/M
Evictions: up sharply even as rents spike
Auto repossessions: uptick expected in Q2 2022
Domestic violence: (NA)
Social unrest: low in 2022
Job openings: apparently high, phantom openings abound
Late bill payments: 42 million Americans expect to miss a payment (including electricity) in the next 6 months
Store closures: up
Homelessness: expected to rise this summer
Initial conclusion: although one month's data does not suggest a trend, initial review points to a deep recession in in 3Q 2022 or earlier. When inflation, energy and food prices are included in the index, the data points to a deep US recession imminently.
This summary is authorized for publication by Analytical Associates of Bethesda, Maryland, LLC.
The USA has always been one big boom town from the beginning
Funny how they immediately dismiss supply side policy.
The immediately go for causing pain for average americans
Here's a copy of the release Analytical Associates sent to media last week:
Our Misery Index data shows that in the month of April 2022, the following variables spiked-up:
Bankruptcies,
First-time unemployment claims,
Foreclosures,
Evictions,
Auto repossessions,
Late bill payments including electricity,
Store closures,
Homelessness, and others.
The Analytical Associates Misery Index for April 2022 points to a deep US recession imminently.
My God! We just had one already thanks to Wuhan…. And now this?
Lol a crash just happened
Globalists suck
Good job Democrats
He just said record low unemployment rates were driving wages up increasing the risk of a recession, then simultaneously said to steady the ship we need to get people back to work… I think he’s scared to say we’ve overspent, exported jobs, and created dependency on a welfare state.
A recession only happens when they don’t announce it. They want people to worry and spend
Only got money for Ukraine, sorry.
I’m not interested in anything Deutsche bank has to say. They’re the biggest criminals. They lie!
Housing, gas prices, and inflation is not sustainable and it will go bust. How strong, no one knows.
Maybe they should reroute that Ukraine funding back to the US, not like it’s helping them. It would be entertaining to watch Democrats taking a blame for everything. I still think that Trump was the best and the most American President of recent times out of them all.
Deutsches Bank was one of the main institutions responsible for selling stock portfolios in the U S that included lease agreements with the United States military bases at home and abroad ! Our former president Bush and his delegates had to renegotiate such sales to the Chinese business man ( government ) !
You would think that markets would rally from sharp gains not losses don't you think ? Their is only executive trading going on ! It's turned out to be nothing but a game of illusional gain and constant losses ! The cage has been introduce with a pack of gorillas promising bananas only to deliver a box of it's peel ! The real GOLD sitting bull is now in Shanghai China ! He was purchased along with the market dating back to G W Bush . While Manhattan was sleeping it got switched out ! I should have believed my boss when she mentioned that it was an authentic gold bull tarnished to hide it's luster ! I would've castrated the big goony and sold the pair during the hyped cash for gold era ! But now in Shanghai , I dare not for the issues with crude , in any given moment finding yourself out the vicinities of your home town there is no telling when one will return ! #1 sell , #2 Selll , #3 Sellll , #4 SELlllll , #5 SELL , #6 SELLLLLLLLLLLL !
I am from the UK and find this video kind of ironic coming from a German banking organization as basically my plan to fix the American economy would be to copy exactly what the Germans did in the late 1920's and early 1930's, or should I say copy what Adolf Hitler did, which has become known as one of the biggest economic turnarounds known to mankind.
As we know in the 1920's the German economy had 100% crashed until the point people were starving to death and unemployment was at record levels. In that case Hitler called his troops back to Germany and using a combination of his armed forces, unemployed and immigrants he declared a period of public works, or in our terms he asked them to rebuild Germany.
They built various roads, train tracks, new farming lands, bridges and all sorts. This not only created lots of new jobs but also gave the armed forces something to do other than a war. Now you could say since the end of WW2 that America has had a war economy that only really works when America is at war with soldiers deployed and boots on the ground.
The USA spend far too much on defense to have its armed forces just sat around doing nothing and if war suddenly stops then the entire supply chain to the armed forces breaks down. You could basically say that America NEEDS its troops to be deployed. If America's troops are deployed then they need weapons / food / medicine / stationary / uniforms and the entire supply chain to the armed forces keeps rolling.
In this case America needs its troops deployed, but actually no one said they couldn't be deployed in America to help rebuild the country. If an American soldier is deployed on US soil then they still need uniforms, still need food, still need medicine and much more, so in some respects the supply chain keeps rolling, soldiers are deployed, boots are on the ground, but just in the US for a change.
With that in mind I'd call some of the US armed forces home and actually ask them to help rebuild America. To wage a war to rebuild America. For some examples I'd asked the US armed forces to help build some of the biggest green energy farms in the world. I'd ask them to build new ports to increase trade. I'd ask them to build new farming lands to give more tradeable produce. I'd ask them to build new railway lines to increase tax revenues by travel.
Basically the only things I'd ask them to help build would either make money / create jobs / increase trade / increase green power production. You throw 200,000 soldiers along with the armed forces designers, engineers, logistic experts at a problem and sure they could build the US green energy farms the size of small countries. This means the troops are deployed and with each task they complete the USA instantly starts earning money from that task.
If a soldier helps install 1 solar panel then big deal. However after 1 year when that soldier has helped install 1,000 solar panels then that soldier has just made more that their wages for the USA every month. That you are paying a soldier but each solar panel they helped install would be an instant income for the USA, that in a sense the soldier is paying his own wages and more.
This would create some savings in the defense budget, for example not being at war means less bullets, less fuel, less medical supplies and these savings could pay for the proposed projects that the soldiers were going to help build. The weapon makers might be a bit upset with no US war to supply, however the US would still need weapons and also maybe this gives such weapon makers some time in R&D to create some future tech weapons FTW.
This is similar to what Germany did in the late 20's and early 30's. They didn't go to war, they kept the troops in their own country and got them to help rebuild the place. I would also point out that China does this all the time! If China faces some kind of construction delay or major project they really want to complete then they just send 200,000 soldiers to help and they delete the problem in weeks using sheer weight of manpower.
US marines train to use all sorts of technology, everything from weapons to satellite uplinks and advanced communications gear, so I am 100% sure they can fit a solar panel. I would point out that many historians have said if Hitler carried on this process of public works for about another 5 years then we would have struggled to stop them.
In this case you have a German banking organization predicting a major economic crash in America, so sure simply copy what the Germans did. Like no one said troops just have to be used for war. You want to build America back better then you have an entire armed forces who would probably be happy to help. Personally I'd task the armed forces to help rebuild the US and would get them to build me green energy farms the size of small nations, then I'd get them to help tractor miles of new farm land, then to build several new super ports, each of these things creating jobs, income, trade for the country, a soldier paying for themselves 1,000 times over.
Shame the Chinese army can't help, they would build you a green energy farm the size of New York in a matter of months. In the case of the US this would be a joint project between the armed forces and private sector, so this would give the troops something to do and boom the private sector with new contracts and jobs. If you really want get the armed forces to build a HUGE amount of new farming lands and renew unused ones and then shove all the immigrants from the South working their and then instantly become tax payers from that point.
Who cares who comes over your Southern border, I'd have someone there to greet them with a tax number waiting. Again the US armed forces could clear you MEGA FARMS, enough to create thousands of tax paying jobs. Things such as food farms / solar farms / ports all need drivers, cleaners, security, fruit pickers, packers, managers, chefs and so on, the list of jobs is fairly endless both skilled and unskilled jobs.
Personally I'd ask the armed forces to build me huge solar fields, however also huge new farming areas for food and I do mean HUGE, then I'd shove many of the immigrants from the South working on these farms, as stated cleaners, fruit pickers, packers, drivers, security and this person would be paying tax within a week of entering the country
Americans like to poke fun at China but really China has one of the biggest armies and economies in the world and its done so with its army deployed on its own soil. China is winning whilst ever its troops are deployed at home helping build the country and economy from within. Really all America is achieving is flying half way around the planet to fight another stupid costly war, they would be better putting that money and troops back into their own country.
Well that is what I'd do in America's position, I'd copy what Germany did in the late 1920's and early 30's which became known as one of the biggest economic turnarounds in history. People forget that before WW2 Hitler was the most popular politician on the planet getting more votes than the UK and USA leaders combined and within less than a decade he turned the entire economy around.
You want to build back better then get your armed forces, unemployed and immigrants to do it. Honestly if put to task the armed forces could probably build you a high speed train track from one side of the country to the other in a year flat. None of this messing about we will have helicopters just dropping the train track sections exactly where they needs to be, helicopters just dropping 500,000 solar panels in a field with soldiers on the ground unpacking them.
I don't need the news to tell me what I see with my own eyes. Gas prices are an all time high, food is more expensive, fast food is more expensive, the dollar store is no longer a dollar, millions of people quitting their jobs, housing is unaffordable and still going up, the stock market is red.
Recession or depression
Deutsche Bank is a criminal money laundering operation. We are not interested in their opinion.
Goodie- just what people that are working poverty need! A massive recession
Fake news. The US is heading into a recession, stop lying to the people.
Half of America literally told you this would happen under Biden for 2 years now
This is what you get when Dems are in charge
14 days ago Deutsche Bank headquarters gets raided in Frankfurt over an alleged money laundering scheme…
13 days ago Deutsche bank makes unsubstantiated claims about a major recession…
Idk what’s going on at Deutsche bank but the timeline has me thinking they’re in trouble.
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