Episode #841
Will 2024 bring about a soft landing or a hard recession? Tough economic times could be upon us as more and more economists disagree with the “soft landing” narrative of early and mid-2023. Even though the economy hasn’t broken down yet, top-tier investors like Fundrise’s Ben Miller believe that a recessionary “lag” is taking place that could give us some severe financial whiplash—and only the best of the best will survive what is to come.
So, what does it take to survive a recession, and how do you know whether or not you’ve put yourself at risk of losing everything? Ben, David, and Rob all give their takes on what could happen in 2024, how they’re protecting their wealth, and why they’re taking fewer risks to ensure they make it out alive. This may be a HUGE wake-up call if you’re still actively buying real estate deals and leveraging your portfolio as much as possible.
Ben will also talk about his lessons from the last two crashes, how the companies he worked with got crushed, and how he changed his investing perspective to build wealth far faster than almost anyone around him. Wealth is built during the downtimes, but if you don’t follow the advice of those who have been through past crashes, you could lose everything you’ve built!
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Show notes at:
00:00 Intro
01:24 Quick Tip
01:54 How Bad the Recession Could Get
08:33 When the Recession Will Hit
15:04 Soft Landing vs. Hard Recession
19:16 Effects on Real Estate
24:44 Where and When to Invest
35:36 STOP Buying Real Estate?
47:11 Connect with Ben!…(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
Soft Landing or Hard Recession? How to Make Money in Either
The global economy is always in a state of flux, and at any given moment, we could be facing either a soft landing or a hard recession. As an investor, it’s important to be prepared for both scenarios and have strategies in place to make money in either situation.
A soft landing occurs when the economy slows down gradually, giving businesses and individuals time to adjust to the changing conditions. On the other hand, a hard recession is characterized by a sudden and severe downturn in economic activity, resulting in high unemployment and a significant decline in consumer spending.
So, how can investors make money in either scenario?
In a soft landing, investors can look for opportunities in defensive sectors such as healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities. These sectors tend to perform well during economic slowdowns as they provide essential products and services that consumers need regardless of the state of the economy. Additionally, dividend-paying stocks and bonds can be attractive investments during a soft landing, as they provide a steady income stream when stock prices are fluctuating.
On the other hand, in a hard recession, investors may want to look for safe-haven assets such as gold and government bonds. These assets tend to perform well in times of economic uncertainty as they are seen as a store of value. Furthermore, defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities may still be attractive in a hard recession, as people continue to require essential services even during tough times.
In both scenarios, diversification is key. By spreading investments across different asset classes and sectors, investors can reduce the risk of their portfolio being heavily impacted by any single event or economic condition. This can help to ensure that they are well-positioned to weather the storm in either a soft landing or a hard recession.
Furthermore, it’s important for investors to stay informed about the latest economic trends and developments. By keeping a close eye on key indicators such as GDP growth, unemployment rates, and consumer spending, investors can stay ahead of the curve and make well-informed decisions about their investments.
In conclusion, whether the economy is heading for a soft landing or a hard recession, there are always opportunities for investors to make money. By adopting a diversified investment strategy and staying informed about the latest economic trends, investors can position themselves to thrive in any economic environment.
Your channel is like a hidden treasure on YouTube
11:10 WTF is this guy talking about? Milton Friedman? Yet another recession-is-coming pimp
Pound puppy was also a cartoon series
41:25 Mortgage REITS. Anymore info on which ones to go for that are returning 13% and how to go about investing in one? Not a topic I'm very educated on
Residential homes are a form of security for people. A place they can raise their children and build a life. The fact that it has turned into "passive cash flow" investment. Flipped and rented like it means nothing. It's sickening. I wish law's would be passed to put a lid on this. Killing the American dream.. one real estate bro at a time.
I think the timing of when the fed pivots to a lower rate will have a huge impact on soft vs hard landing. If the fed does it right, they'll slowly ratchet down starting next year, but not enough to initiate a buying frenzy. Appreciation can still be slow. If thats how they do it, the world won't be going on sale for us investors.
@39:49 It's not surprising that raising rates have not impacted RE prices yet. Did you forget your brownie comment? It takes 15 months for rates to impact the economy. We are only 4 months from the last rate hike. It takes time for people to lose jobs, but jobs are dwindling and if by end of Q1 massive layoffs start, you'll know bankruptcies and mortgage defaults will be 6 months away. That will put us right at month 15 after rate hikes are done.
85% of CEOs know the recession is coming. Ask any Fortune 500 C-Level exec, they have already prepped and laid-off their unproductive workers, and they are hanging on by a thread now to their earnings. All will break in 2024.
"Decent analogy" @12:30 No, that was an awesome analogy. I'm going to steal it. Sticky prices/ salaries cause the Fed to eat too many interest rate brownies. Right now, we're at the point where we're asking ourselves if we need to have a third helping of brownies, when we only need one. But why not, we're not feeling anything!!
You really don't want to be leveraged when assets are in decline. The Fed has made it 100% clear for over a year now. They will stop inflation. But they never get it right with a "soft" landing, there is ALWAYS an over correction. Why? Because prices (particularly salaries) are sticky. Rarely, can employers lower wages, they just layoff people. That causes many of those people to go bankrupt (because they are living a leveraged life and there are less jobs available). If you have leveraged real estate, you'd better have guaranteed income to cover your costs, not a job.
my daily vitamins! nice show as usual.
Bidenomics has destroyed everything
Good interview, reminds me of Principles by Ray Dalio when he talks about past economic history.
So it's coming in some shape or form but look at macro not micro. First video in a long while I watched more than 5min of. This had some really good insight and content. Thank you all.
it seems like a lot of those ppl were lucky and now the game is changing they are freaking out not knowing what to do.
The yield curve began uninverting already. Looks like bull steepening. Fed will be forced to cut rates and QE in the next few quarters. Smart money already did layoffs. Typical pattern we see in these cycles is happening where folks pile into the wrong asset type trying to get ahead. These viewers are going to be in hard assets which is good for where things are going. More re investors need to learn about how to follow.whars going on with the yield curve and understand the economy so they don't get caught. This is a good first primer to some important concepts. Definitely want to be in hard assets right now and remember the fed thinks Phillips curve is the thing so that'll inform thinking and why they don't see impact of their actions.