More economists are forecasting a recession again for the U.S. economy. The latest jobs report provides some important context on whether an economic downturn could be coming soon. We’ll unpack the jobs numbers as well as earnings, hours worked and dig into the labor force participation numbers to explain what’s really happening.
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I’m Dion Rabouin, a WSJ reporter covering markets and the economy. I’ll be diving into all things finance, from the popular and well-known — like crypto and stocks — to the complex and intricate — like leveraged loans, derivatives and private equity. Subscribe to join me as I take a deep dive into what’s making money move and why it matters….(read more)
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Awesome as always
That dot-plot for 2024 looks….interesting.
looks like all those people getting off the fence are getting hired… are we near the pre- pandemic labor force participation levels? or could more people still jump in? The Fed isnt going to like this.
All jobs arent equal. The continued shift of full-time workers to multi-job part time workers has been years in the making. Add in no wage growth, and we see nothing that describes a "Hot" job market. Anyone attributing this to inflation is lying. Straight propaganda.
how accurate can these numbers possibly be on a scale from 1 to 6? 2?
Where can I find the Market Data page? Is ut public?
Thank you for the great reporting!
The size of the july/august revisions is stunning. This stinks, who profits ?
Hi Dion, I am very suspect about the BLS seasonal adjustments. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, both job openings (JOLTS) and private non-farm payrolls actually fell. Whether they actually rebound or not in October remains to be seen. These seasonal adjustments may be just masking weakness in the economy.
Dion, but the chart shows a pattern. The overall the trend is still down but every 3 or 4 months you will see a spike.
This is subject revision; also pandemic eviscerated empiricism and attendant relative import. And said added are replacement.
However, interest needs to lower, which would allow the economy to balance thru growth and a higher neutral rate keyed off the deuce. Phillips pursuit by the Fed is locked box thinking.
Waiting for people to insist that we are in the middle of a depression.
Was that average earnings 4% adjusted for inflation?
Average or median excess household savings?
Good look at bonds
Notice how the proposed solution to any inflation problem is to shaft workers instead of actually going after tax dodging corporations
Dion, what truth is there to people saying that after dividing the job market into different sectors, the high paying sectors are all down, the low paying sectors are all up? Sure there may be a ton of jobs but service industry aint gonna let people be able to buy a house.
❤Thanks bud for keepin us financially
Educated! Regardless of how bad it gets on the economy, I still make over $20,000 every single week.