While Michael Burry did just bet against Cathie Wood, and also increased his Tesla put option position, people are forgetting that ‘The Big Short’ investor just increased his bet on U.S. inflation! Despite Jerome Powell and The Federal Reserve staying confident in their low interest rates, Burry sees big inflation ahead and is betting against the 20+ year Treasury bonds.
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#michaelburry #inflation
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All those bets looking dam good right now!
You know, there should be a follow up on this video. I followed Burry's thesis on inflation by purchasing TLT, TBT, and TMV, and they have all paid off up between 115% – 344%. I think if Burry had better timing, or more confidence in himself, he may have cashed in on his own advise too. I wonder if got back in recently?
This aged extremely well indeed!
No one sees the irony. Michael Burry was blind in one eye.
He is a one-eyed man but saw everything coming. Meanwhile everyone is blinded by greed.
"In the kingdom of the blind. One-eyed man is king"
-Desiderius Erasmus
TMV
THIS IS A GREAT ANSWER TO RISING INTEREST RATES IN AN INFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT. THANK YOU.
Looking forward to Brandon revisiting this now 2 months later. It’s looking better for TeamBurry, is it not? Keep up to good work!
Team Burry right here. It's going to be a bumpy ride.
Burry
Well of course Burry is right. The question is whether or not the Fed and the Biden administration are stupid enough to print another trillion dollar round before then.
The problem with trying to follow burry is most people don’t have the resources to wait the length of time he can to be right
I was seeing one economist on blommberg he talk about pulling un the inflation rate will this also has to pull up rates i dont see an inflation to make a correction i think can be a correction but no as drastic as burry put it.
team burry
Great explanation on a fairly complicated topic. Great work
He should go head to head with the manipulators: UDN FNGD
Thanks
the principal amount is not the amount of money committed by Burry. I see a lot of people confusing about this.
ahem wut?
inflation when gold is down NEVER. wut?
federal reserve says so. (them shorting paper gold)
Team Burry! If so much money printing doesn't lead to inflation, that is crazy.
Now just curious to know when burry's options are expiring….
Burry is right, we're f***ed
if burry is right …..call me impresed
How’s your Tesla shorting going on Burry?
Inflation is rising because of the rebound of real economy. Since a lot of money has been input into the market money are now cheaper (hence you need more money to buy things).
BUT…on the other hand the recovery is not proceeding as fast as central banks would have supposed. So inflation + stagnant demand = stagflation …wich is the threat all the Governments are dealing with.
The switch I expect is that the stimulus will, at a certain point, be put at work in a different way: instead of lending money to the people we should see a new phase of big public investments worldwide (smart transportation, low carbon conversion, broadband everywhere, efficient food production cycle, ….). This means putting back value in your country, hence in your currency.
It's not easy to predict what's going to happen but I'm pretty confident Governments are going to step in hardly in the economic guidance (China already began and so I think is preparing to do Biden as well as EU). So in the close future we might experience some inflation but nothing too dramatic hopefully.
Do you guys think he's gonna be a legend again on this one ??
I bought a single Put for $100. I sold everything in my portfolio and am just casually selling cash covered puts of SPY until the end of September. Coronavirus should be peaking sometime in October. The delta variant spreads pretty well despite everyone being outside. When the weather changes, last December will look better than this December. Interest rates may stay the same with another surge despite inflation.
Burry is betting on stagflation specifically, meaning high inflation plus high unemployment due to long-er-than-desired supply chain shocks, courtesy of covid variant spread and low vaccination rates in the U.S. The Fed could eventually increase interest rates in response, or just keep them low and wait it out.
Michael Bury’s TLT Puts are pipe dream at best. I am sorry to say, because he was right about 2008 does not mean he is right again.
Last time we had zero interest rates during Obama presidency coming out of 2008 it was a long recovery road up where stocks posted multi year gains, including the 3+ years in Trump presidency when interest rates were higher, markets churned higher. Same narrative of “Interest rates rise and stocks fall” – DID NOT hold true. Remember CNBC analyst and pundits reversing that narrative and continued the party until March 2020. That and couple of other fundamental shifts (I call it fundamental because, its none like we have seen before), and that is – 1) incredibly large number of companies are getting listed in exchanges and larger sums of money are getting exchanged through the market, on a historical basis hence the stock market itself is growing in size, and so will market cap, indices, higher P/E, higher CAPE ratios 2) incredibly large number of people are staying invested and over long periods of time every one is piling more, dips get bought, and no single entity owns more of a meaningful size to put a dent in the market. Any sell offs will get bought immediately. This was simply not the case 30 years ago. There is more trust in recovery, having said any Dips/Crashes are going to be garden variety and will look cute as a teddy bear. Those who stay invested will reap the benefits for next 2 to 3 decades.
Odd take that inflation will cause stock prices to fall. Yes, the cost of borrowing will rise when we see high levels of inflation, but so will the cost of goods, wages and debt will be proportional worth less due to the devaluing of the dollar.