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As we enter the second half of 2023, will the stronger-than-expected recovery in the markets continue?
Or will forces, such as the lag effect of the Fed’s hawkishly aggressive policies over the past year, ruin the current party?
For insight, it helps to talk to those tasked with captaining client capital through the seas ahead.
Today, we’re fortunate to hear from Michael Green, portfolio manager & chief strategist at Simplify Asset Management.
Follow Michael at
Or on Twitter @profplum99
On on Substack at
TIMESTAMPS
0:00 Michael’s current assessment of the global economy and markets.
3:10 Key flows that are going on.
8:38 Impact of higher interest rates on real estate.
14:18 Corporate profits and interest rates.
19:43 Unemployment and unemployment in the construction sector.
24:01 How much can we really trust the BLS numbers?
30:07 Inflation reduction act and shortages.
35:03 The importance of the education system.
42:24 The problem with Amazon’s compensation.
48:22 The problem with revolving credit and debt.
54:12 Allocating capital to bonds.
1:02:01 What to look for in a good portfolio?
1:05:59 The effects of increased passive investing on the market.
1:10:05 Progress on reforming the system.
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There’s no doubt that it’s a very challenging time right now for the average investor. Above and beyond the recent economic impacts of COVID, the new era of record low interest rates, runaway US debt and US deficits, and trillions of dollars in monetary and fiscal stimulus stimulus has changed the rules of investing by dangerously distorting the Dow index, the S&P 500, and nearly all other asset prices. Can prices keep rising, or is there a painful reckoning ahead?
Let us help you prepare your portfolio just in case the future brings one or more of the following: inflation, deflation, a bull market, a bear market, a market correction, a stock market crash, a real estate bubble, a real estate crash, an economic boom, a recession, a depression, or another global financial crisis.
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#recession2023 #stockmarket #investing
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IMPORTANT NOTE: The information and opinions offered in this video by Wealthion or its interview guests are for educational purposes ONLY and should NOT be construed as personal financial advice. We strongly recommend that any potential decisions and actions you may take in your investment portfolio be conducted under the guidance and supervision of a quality professional financial advisor in good standing with the securities industry. When it comes to investing, past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not reflect actual future performance. All investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss….(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
Thinking We’ll Avoid Recession Is Delusional | Michael Green
In the midst of economic uncertainty, there seems to be a general consensus that we can avoid a recession altogether. However, according to financial expert Michael Green, thinking this way is delusional.
Since the global financial crisis of 2008, the world has experienced a long period of economic growth. Many factors have contributed to this prolonged expansion, such as low interest rates, loose monetary policy, and fiscal stimulus. However, there are signs that this growth cycle is coming to an end, and a recession may be inevitable.
One of the main reasons is the excessive global debt burden. Governments, corporations, and individuals have all accumulated significant amounts of debt in the past decade. While this debt has fueled growth, it has also created a fragile financial system that is susceptible to shocks. If any significant event – like a trade war escalation, a slowdown in China, or a geopolitical crisis – were to occur, it could trigger a domino effect and push the global economy into recession.
Another concern is the stock market’s performance. Stock markets have been on an upward trend for many years, reaching record highs. However, this bull market seems to be fueled by artificial factors rather than fundamental growth. Central bank interventions, like quantitative easing, have led to artificially low interest rates and an excess of liquidity in the financial system. This has forced investors to search for higher returns, driving them into riskier assets like stocks. As a result, the stock market has become detached from the real economy, creating a bubble that is ready to burst.
Furthermore, there is a risk of a policy mistake by policymakers. Governments have limited tools to combat a recession after a decade of low-interest rates and fiscal stimulus measures. With interest rates already close to zero or negative, monetary policymakers have little room to maneuver. If a recession hits, they may lack the necessary ammunition to stimulate the economy, prolonging the downturn.
It is essential to be realistic and prepare for a possible recession. While predicting the precise timing and severity of a downturn is challenging, it is crucial to acknowledge that the current economic expansion cannot last forever. By acknowledging this possibility, individuals, businesses, and policymakers can take appropriate steps to protect themselves and minimize the impact of a recession.
For individuals, this means managing their finances responsibly, paying down debt, and building an emergency fund. Businesses should focus on diversifying their customer base, reducing costs, and ensuring adequate cash reserves. Policymakers must implement appropriate monetary and fiscal measures to mitigate the impact of a recession and prevent an economic collapse.
In conclusion, it is delusional to think that we can avoid a recession indefinitely. The signs of an impending economic downturn are becoming more apparent, and we must prepare ourselves accordingly. By being proactive and taking the necessary steps to safeguard our finances, we can weather the storm and come out stronger on the other side. It is better to be prepared for a recession that never materializes than to be caught off-guard and suffer the consequences.
what can I do? I have been disabled since 2009 and I am 58 years old at the verge of retirement. My portfoliio of $750k is down to $492k, How can I profit from the present market" , I mean I've heard of people making upto $250k in couple weeks during this crash and I'd like to know how.
FU… a psychology degree does provide skills for employment. What are you talking about?
This channel has been pedalling nothing but predictions that never panned out.
I love hearing from Michael Green. He draws insightful conclusions that are strongly supported by data. Have him on more!!
This situation is the same as 2008 when all mortgages reset at the same time. Can you say rug pull . Typical every 10 years they pull this nonsense.
Got to fix the audio. Delayed like Bruce Lee movie.
Question: let's say we do avoid recession. What should happen to these perma bear channels?
And in conclusion….exactly! We’re too far over the cliff folks!
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!
Thinking you can predict the future is "insane". Calling people "insane" for thinking a recession will be avoided is "insane". Ad Hominem. If you have the data and compelling position you don't have to launch personal attacks to discredit them.
@36:20 Shit. I thought I was gonna be a high flyer for life with French medieval literature with psychology.
Adam can we please get some vol expert on the channel. That’s the area wealthion hasn’t covered. Guys like Cem Karsan from kai volatility or Kris Sidial from ambrus. If we can get both that’s epic. Thank you.
Great info. Thank you.
sludging up for a grime-fest !
Interest rates have finally normalized. the problem is high asset prices.
Eyes….
GREAT CONTENT , Times are weird. The US dollar is losing purchasing power due to inflation while strengthening against other currencies and assets. The stock market, real estate, crypto AND precious metals are down because people are fleeing to the "safety" of the dollar. where else can we put our investment money? I can't afford to see my savings of around $320,000 turn to dust in front of my eyes.
Doubtfully people are getting credit card cash advance for casinos. So when you talk about people keeping up with a life style – here in Atlantic City, NJ the casinos are BUSY people are gambling, eating, shopping, going to shows. There is no perception of recession here. I wish the talk about inflation would go away; it just induces fear.
As a soon retiree, keeping my 401k on course after a rocky 2022 is top priority. I have been reading of lnvestors making up to 250k ROI in this current crashing market, any recommendations to scale up my ROI before retirement will be highly appreciated
The Fed is following the globalist agenda to crash our dollar and then start their digital assets. If anyone believes that the fed is really trying to fix the economy are foolish. This world agenda has been planned since they passed our central bank/federal reserve into law in 1912. After they start the CBDC's around the world they will force their one world currency & implant their microsoft microchip inside everyone's bodies by 2030.
I listen to practically every Mike Green interview I can, and he's great about a lot but he has a huge blind spot. When you talk about post WW2 government actions all the programs like the GI bill are entirely dwarfed by the size of the cuts in government spending. To compare the GI bill cost ~$17 billion dollars through 1956, and federal spending in 1948 was $75 billion less than the 1944 peak. One single year of spending cuts was ~ 4 GI bills worth of spending over a decade. The highway system is much more complicated- but just using wikipedia information (gives us a sense of scale) from 1956 to 1992 there was $114 billion spent- or ~$3 billion a year. You simply cannot talk post WW2 economic policy, growth and inflation without starting with the massive spending reduction that occurred. Everything else is a footnote, or a footnote to that footnote. Mentioning lower inflation now after the inflation reduction act was passed is similarly myopic. The IRA is relatively small (especially when spread across its expected time frame) when compared to the extra pandemic spending. Total expenditures in '20 and '21 were ~6.5 and 7.3 trillion, which has dropped to ~6 trillion in '22. Its not a surprise that a $1.3 trillion change in spending in one year dominates a $1 trillion dollar spending bill that will be spread across 10 years.
Major indexes booked their worst yearly performance since 2008 thanks to drivers like the recession, war, hiked interest rate and inflation which so far doesn’t seem to be easing off, so I’m left wondering what 2023 has in store for us investors, I’ve been sitting on over $745K equity from a home sale and I’m not sure where to go from here, is it a good time to buy or do I wait?
A current $70k/year salary is equivalent to earning ZERO in 1929
If you earn under $100k/year, you are already in the 2023 American Super depression (far more Painful than 1929).
Recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement.
Bottom line, Debt predicated upon Debt can only end in bankruptcy no matter how you shuffle the chairs on this financial Titanic. What do you think of them Apples?
Good show.
Adam, thanks for adding TIMESTAMPS!!!!
I have scrolled down and find no comment on the fact that Mike sold his house! I would have appreciated more on that. Did I miss something?
It's all financial engeneering…
Monopoly? Worst one is the government – student loans, housing, insurance – they've destroyed it all
he's on crack "you're not going to file for unemployment" no matter what your salary EVERYBODY files for the FREE $500 per week. what a dimwit to say that
Wow, your guests have been overwhelmingly bearish…where are the bulls who were promoting the upside since at least January???
Please find some balance!
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Mike "Dynamics" Green is one of my favourite pundits.
I don't agree with Mike at all when it comes to Bitcoin, but he was pretty sharp here.
I agree with you Adam that the 10 year interest rate should fall which would be great for long duration bonds. The yield curve always corrects/ steepens within 24 months. We are already 12 months in to yield curve inversion. Which means that you believe either something breaks and the front end of the curve collapses or you believe that the 10 year bond can rise another 200 basis points which would make home mortgages around 9%. I’m betting on the former rather than the latter.