Good Morning Fellas! I am trying to Learn Fundamentals. I love the stocks!
Yesterday I posted a raw estimate of Microsoft’s fair value, you can see it [here](https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/xwguyf/microsofts_discounted_free_cash_flow_evaluation/), it is pretty ugly, so ignore it lol
**Disclaimer:** *I do not consider other factors like management, investments, partnerships, contracts, macro-economics and many, many other more variables, this is just an exercise i made to practice Fundamental Analysis. Obviously, if we take in count other factors, Free Cash Flow and Stock Price will change. And the following is is not Financial Advice.*
Thanks to everyone that intervened yesterday in the discussion! Today I adjusted some data and re-calculated it. Following, you can see where I took my numbers
[where i took my numbers](https://preview.redd.it/d0099lmxs5s91.png?width=1264&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cf93042188de0188c1bea5fcb5998354c723f6e)
I took in consideration analysts growth rate estimate, we will calculate the Fair Value with both, the analysts one (**14.96%**) and the estimate of mine (**20.08%**). Following, estimate of Per Share Price with **analysts growth** rate estimate:
[With analysts growth rate estimate](https://preview.redd.it/rygi0uv2t5s91.png?width=404&format=png&auto=webp&s=307b435f1b95b2c64b16ec34c7d77f221a933591)
And down here the estimate **using my growth rate:**
[With the growth rate of mine](https://preview.redd.it/ihc6uey7t5s91.png?width=400&format=png&auto=webp&s=88b67dd8017c901f1ef3bcdd1e99b1290bc2fd4b)
We can clearly see that with analysts one, it is a **SELL**, but with mine it is a **BUY**.
Down here, the Free Cash Flow projection:
https://preview.redd.it/uv4xfkjct5s91.png?width=1454&format=png&auto=webp&s=bf130fd3c260cdb0608bfe55d1f0a4896267b5d6
Following, the Stock’s Price Sensitivity Analysis:
https://preview.redd.it/vrjrql9et5s91.png?width=1016&format=png&auto=webp&s=5d85cf6e184d02beca4439f12dd81cb75f3e20d4
# Conclusions:
From this quick analysis we can see that the **Stock’s Fair Value is between 226$ and 275$,** those data indicate that it is a good buy opportunity and smart to DCA between that range if we are intended to stay invested for the long run.
What do you think? What are your thoughts? Do you have any other advices or indications? I am learning, i know that in this sub there are smart people too, so don’t complain that this is not the right sub lol
I like to learn from you too!
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I appreciate the effort, but you don’t need DCF to tell you that Microsoft is a long term hold. Maybe do a DCF for companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron.
MSFT is probably the best long-term prospect in all of the S&P. It is extremely diversified and has so much cash it’s unbelievable. If I had to only pick one stock to hold for 50 years from today, it would easily be Microsoft.
If my calls are right, it’s a buy.
If my calls are wrong, it’s a sell.