#yahoofinance #recession #jeromepowell #inflation #interestrates
Many investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates in July, with some economists arguing the Fed’s rate hikes will send the U.S. into a recession. But Morgan Stanley Chief Global Economist Seth Carpenter says a soft landing for the U.S. economy is still in the cards and that a recession is avoidable. Carpenter explains his call in an interview with Yahoo Finance Live.
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BREAKING: Recession News
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U.S. ‘Not Likely to Tip Over into Recession’: Morgan Stanley Economist
Despite concerns about an economic downturn, the United States is unlikely to slip into a recession in the near future, according to a prominent economist at Morgan Stanley. While there have been fears surrounding various economic indicators, such as the inverted yield curve, signs suggest that the U.S. economy is generally resilient and well-positioned to weather the storm.
Chetan Ahya, the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, believes that there are several factors that support his optimistic outlook. One key factor is the robustness of the U.S. labor market. Unemployment rates remain near historic lows, and wage growth has been steady. These factors contribute to consumer confidence and spending, which are crucial drivers of economic growth.
Ahya also highlights the positive performance of the U.S. housing market. Housing construction has been relatively strong, and demand for homes remains solid. Low mortgage rates have fueled a surge in housing activity, particularly among first-time buyers. This has had a widespread positive impact on the economy, as increased home buying leads to greater consumer spending on related goods and services.
Additionally, the economist points to the Federal Reserve’s proactive stance. The central bank has been closely monitoring economic indicators and has taken necessary steps to support the economy. In 2019, the Federal Reserve implemented three interest rate cuts as a preemptive measure to maintain economic stability. Lower interest rates typically encourage borrowing and investment, further stimulating economic activity.
Ahya recognizes that the trade tensions between the U.S. and China have been a headwind for the economy. However, he remains optimistic that an eventual resolution to the trade dispute will result in a rebound in global growth. With some progress made on the U.S.-China trade front, there is hope for a gradual easing of tensions in the near future, which could boost business confidence and investment.
It is important to acknowledge, though, that risks still exist. Global political uncertainties, such as Brexit and geopolitical tensions, could potentially weigh on the global economy and indirectly impact the U.S. Even though the U.S. economy is currently strong, external factors can exert pressure on domestic growth.
In conclusion, while concerns about a recession may persist, Chetan Ahya, the Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, remains optimistic about the state of the U.S. economy. Factors like a solid labor market, robust housing market, and supportive Federal Reserve policies contribute to the resilience of the U.S. economy. Although risks remain, the United States is well-positioned to navigate through potential headwinds and avoid tipping over into a recession.
have you changed the metrics used as recession indicatour again?!
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Rates been hiked from 0.25 to 5 percent in a short amount of time, there is bound to be repercussions.Think Morgan Stanley with Mike wilson (where has he gone recently?) got it wrong and it's going to take much longer to play out
Look here, don't look over there … the average American has the attention span of a goldfish – 5 seconds; so never mind that all the "official" data gets revised months later and in the meantime the talking heads continue to paint a "rosy" picture.
You are a bunch of Brain dead talking heads the Economy is slow money is getting very tight and real estate sales are drying up everywhere! We are not in a solid place! Go Bury your head further in the sand!
Then we are going into a deep recession never trust idiots that have never earned a real wage.
The Biden bull market will not abate anytime soon.
Recession will not come until the Fed take back money it injected into the economy since the pandemic. That's like $5 trillion.
"Contained"
"Sound"
"Transitory"
"Sound and resilient"
New kid on the block: "Not likely"
Suuurrre.
Now pull the other one.
so he does not hold same view as his colleague mike wilson
Let's go Brandon
This guy doesn’t know anything. No recession?! He has no idea, just trying to stay relevant.
We BEEN in recession since last summer!
Is Morgan Stanley still holding strong on the prediction that SP500 goes to 3900 by December 2023?
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Great job Joe Biden!
Delusional. Impact of rate increases hasn't shown on indicators. It is not really about how much rates will go up, the pain comes with prolong higher rates. There is less money out there to pay debt. Mortgage debt, student loan, credit card debt, auto debt. How will the consumer lead us out of recession. Sorry my bet is there will be a crash when people hit their credit card limits. Its game over. Credit limit is maxed.
I think if we hit 50% unemployment tomorrow some experts would say no chance of a recession
Neither in Canada the economy is like a freight train
Remember everyone. Retail investors are going to have to start paying student loans again this fall.