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NASDAQ every time we broke the MA200 in the past. Will be this time different ?
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So when you say “every time” you mean “the 2 times it happened so far”? You have 2 data points. You might as well flip a coin to figure out what happens next.
Depends on how long they wait to turn the printers back on.
wait for vix to breach 70
Nasdaq has fallen more 35% from 52 week high only 4 times including now.
Can someone lend me some money so I can buy long dated spy puts
That’s two data points, it’s not predictive – in fact it’s resulting, it drops below the 200 day MA by nature in a crash. You need to look at the factors that are actually predictive of market crashes and recessions.
So spy next
Astrology for men. Nobody knows shit about fuck. The fed could pivot tomorrow and it would put the bottom in.
Its pointing to crash and recession. That is why market is fighting for life on that 200 wma.
Who follows the weekly 200MA anyway… so arbitrary
What toddler drew this map?
You really should extend your chart back 20-30 more years. It was crisscrossing the moving average on a yearly basis.
Actually it broke the MA200 in 1982, 1987, 1990, 2004 and 2010. Decent rallies after each time in 1982, 1990, 2004 and 2010. It is more that 2000 and 2008 are the outliers.
People need to understand that this isn’t looking like 2008. There were systemic problems with our banks and the rest of the world’s economy crash. Unemployment was already extremely high (at all time lows)
As long as people are employed and making money, things aren’t going to get as bad as some of you make it out to be (it’s already really bad, 30% off the indexes.)
we printed all the money, there’s nothing to catch it this time = falls like a rock = SPY sub $200 is the bottom, never coming back, they’ll need to “reset ” the stock market once they hand out our new global govt issued monopoly money aka CBDC (central bank digital currency)
No
I like looking at the RSI. If you look at that you’ll see we’re not at the bottom just yet especially considering this is a significant recession
its a whole different shape
You wont predict the future with that. Fe3ls like a weather forecast beyond 3 days. One little change and everything goes in a whole other direction
And away we goooooooooooooooooooooooooooo echo echo echo echo
I think since 2021 where everyone started trading stocks on their phone instead of playing Pokémon go the market snaps back a lot stronger.
Over a long term the market is always up.
Nope big short 2.0
Yup very different. One way to know this are momentum oscillators. Just one example check out the MACD or more obvious STCH MTM on weekly chart and you will figure it’s different. Check any momentum oscillator ( best to use in choppy markets), we are incredibly oversold even more than any point in 08 and similar to levels at the bottom of the tech bubble. Why should stock prices move downward faster than 09 or 02 peak capitulation?! You know what’s also different this time, capitulation definition! It’s gonna be a slow bleed rather than short and sharp! That means VIX wont spike. So everything is different this time, 2022 is a year that will go down as different in history. Good luck
i think the market will start a bull market only in 2023.
no
I see definitely drop for NASDAQ under $ 10K , $ 8100- $ 8500 could be our bottom
The nasdaq barely made a dent and everyone thinks we’re near bottom
No. Fasten your seatbelts, it’s going to be bumpy ride.
The question is how far down will it go? The long term trend line looks like 5000 might be a landing spot.
If you think that red line is the sma 200, which is the more common moving average everyone uses, you are wrong. The nasdaq and every other index has been below the sma 200 since January of this year.
Why are so many here so opposed to TA. If it didn’t work then why do successful day traders and hedge funds use it along other tools. What do you ppl that oppose TA think they use when developing the algos that buy and sell. Do you think it’s random codes, or codes based around some technical aspects of the market. No wonder a lot of you lose money. You think it’s just random noise and the whims of unknown forces when in reality it’s far more simpler with buying and selling happening due to news, fundamental and technical reasons. Why not use the tools available instead of just outright dismissing TA. As a matter fact, it’s impossible to successful trade in this market without TA
Yowza.
Only Putin can save us now.
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Rally into tech ER then dump?
Check this chart out for the 1980s, which may have more appropriate macro conditions to compare to. Very conflicting signals
Short all in.now
Both together this time
Yes, it will be different.
Imo market has only repriced on existing higher yield curve.
There are a few scenarios that could bring us lower:
1. r% stays higher for longer than current yield curve – DCF revaluation needed (slow-burn)
2. High r% for longer, bankrupting inefficient and highly leveraged businesses (individual stocks take massive hit, stock indices mild neg impact)
3. High r% breaking foreign countries finance (mild negative impact on US stocks)
4. Deeper recession than priced in, consumer spending drops off a cliff (inflation subsides, one / two more leg down , deeper drops but not collapse, before a pivoting bottom)
5. Higher and longer r% causes liquidity issue in financial system (2008 like collapse)
I think 5) is least likely, central banks have learnt from 2008 and would probably set up temporary liquidity facility / injection on any points on yield curve to avoid 2008 situation – like what BoE has done.
1,2,3,4 are quite likely – and these would lead to a slower but longer bear market situation where small caps will be absolutely wrecked at some point and s&p takes a slow bumpy ride down
no 
Not until after the election