Non-Boomer Portfolio Management for The Highly Regarded

by | Oct 7, 2022 | Resources | 2 comments

Non-Boomer Portfolio Management for The Highly Regarded

Boomer portfolios are some kind of X/Y percentage split between index stock funds and bond funds. No thanks, not interested.

However, while boring, the concepts of portfolio management can be applied to WSB-style portfolios to help smooth out returns. Here’s some examples:

I like gold miners. GDX and GDXJ along with some individual holdings. I am bullish on them because I am bullish on gold due to fiat money collapse and central bank recklessness. There’s a problem with gold miners. They use energy to dig up the gold. That’s an input cost.

I am also bullish on energy. I think we’re going into a commodities supercycle because ESG has threatened energy security. There’s lack of development in the energy sector outside of solar/green/wind, and there are shortages.

Combining gold miners with energy plays in my portfolio reduces risk. Because not only am I diversifying across sectors, but the energy sector is an input into the gold mining sector. So if energy costs rise and put downward pressure on gold mining profits, then my energy stocks rise to compensate.

I’m also bullish on tankers. The longer the Russia-Ukraine thing goes on, the longer that “woke” countries have to pretend they aren’t buying Russian oil by having Russia send the oil to China and then China send them on tankers to Putin-Man-Bad countries.

I currently have $50k worth of Russian equities that are frozen due to ‘Merica and freedom and stuff. The longer the Ukraine thing goes on, the longer they will be frozen and the greater chance I’ll be forced to sell my Russian stocks back to Russian Oligarchs for pennies on the dollar to teach them a lesson about democracy or whatever. Thus, being long tanker stocks hedges this, because tanker stocks benefit from a prolonged Ukraine crisis.

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I was bullish on Defense Contractors back in November 2021. I knew we’d be entering an economic crisis and those historically result in war. So I loaded up on some contractors, and then in February, when the Ukraine thing popped off, I sold. I’d like to buy back in, but I think they’re overpriced now. And if we do have a war, my gold holdings should do great, so I don’t need defense contractors to hedge for WW3. Gold is a cheaper hedge at the moment, being down 20% over the last year, compared to defense contractors which are up 20% over the last year.

I am bearish on Tesla. Always have been. I’m also bearish on the SP500 as a whole. I think TSLA will go down more than the SP500, because in a recession, people won’t be buying luxury cars. So I pair TSLA Puts / Shorts in my portfolio. If there’s a recession, the need for energy goes down, so my energy stocks go down, but TSLA shorts go up.

If the government cancels the recession by printing a few trillion more dollars, my gold miners should do great in spite of the TSLA shorts getting crushed.

I’m not saying you should also be bearish on TSLA. Let’s say you’re bullish. Great. Find something that will go up, in the event you’re incorrect. If TSLA crashes, what will go up in that environment? I’m not trying to tell you what sectors to pick, just that you should find other sectors that will perform well if your bullish case goes wrong.

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**TL;DR** Construct your portfolio in such a way that regardless of what happens, something compensates and does better to make up for the losses in the other thing. Don’t buy 10% positions of 10 different High Growth Tech Stocks because when things crash, all 10 of them go down together.

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**Holdings:**

GDX / GDXJ Gold Miners

Various Energy Oil, LNG, Uranium, Coal

Tankers FRO is my favorite

TSLA Puts 3 to 6 months out, 30% to 70% OTM



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Non-Boomer Portfolio Management for The Highly Regarded


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2 Comments

  1. cronkasaur

    When moon

  2. Just_Looking_Busy

    I’ll agree with you in principle, that the 70/30 or 60/40 go long portfolio is outdated, but that about where I get of the bus. People who buy gold with the intent to hedge themselves against the collapse of “fiat” currencies or the “I’m buying physical gold for when the world collapses I’ll be so rich!” are hopelessly naïve/have never studied history. If the monetary system of any major power collapses or the world goes totally belly up gold is entirely worthless, gold miners doubly so. Your “diversification”, while nice in theory, needs work…

    Food, water, and pew-pews are all that will really matter when/if the collapse of a major “fiat” currency occurs.

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