Opinions of Economists on the Probability of a Recession

by | Apr 9, 2023 | Recession News | 44 comments




Despite signs of inflation easing up, many economists are still expecting the U.S. to fall into a recession. CBS News’ Tony Dokoupil and Lana Zak are joined by Harriet Torry, economics reporter for the Wall Street Journal, to discuss the economic outlook.

#news #economy #recession

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As the world economy continues to face threats from geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and other factors, economists are giving mixed signals on the likelihood of a future recession. While some experts predict a looming downturn, others are quick to dismiss the idea of an upcoming recession.

According to a recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE), 72% of economists predict that the next recession will occur by the end of 2021. However, the majority of these economists also believe that the coming recession will be mild, with only 10% predicting a severe downturn.

See also  Prepare for the Recession of 2023 #shorts #recession

Many economists believe that the current trade war between the United States and China poses one of the greatest threats to the world economy. The disruption of global supply chains, increased tariffs, and uncertain trade policies have already had significant effects on the stock market and international trade. If the trade war continues to escalate, it could lead to a global recession.

Other factors contributing to the possibility of a future recession include rising levels of household debt, a slowdown in global growth, and political uncertainty in countries such as the United Kingdom and Italy.

Despite these concerns, some economists argue that the global economy is still strong enough to avoid a recession. With low unemployment rates and relatively stable economic growth, many experts believe that the risks of a recession are overstated.

Additionally, some believe that while the United States may experience a downturn, it may not necessarily lead to a global recession. The US economy accounts for roughly a quarter of the world economy, which means that a recession in the United States would not necessarily have a significant impact on other countries.

Overall, there is no clear consensus among economists on the likelihood of a recession in the near future. While some experts predict a mild downturn, others argue that the global economy is strong enough to sustain continued growth. In these uncertain times, it is important to monitor economic indicators and trends in order to prepare for any potential risks.

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44 Comments

  1. Oliver Adams

    A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you're careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn't king at all in this time.

  2. Mark Tilbury

    My mom and I get great profits from our investment with Mrs. Chalian Shantae, her set of skills are amazing.

  3. Patricia Carlos

    No worries for me, I don't try to time the market. When I see that stock drops below its fair value with some margin of safety – I buy. Past 2-3 months have been huge shopping spree for me. I've got literally like 5000$ left of investing cash. Probably I will miss some occasions in the future months, but who cares as long as I got value

  4. Dj Hazardous

    Unfortunately i need that recession to happen in order to get car

  5. Ryan J Canfield

    I've been misinformed. Does this indicate that now is not a good time to invest? Considering the recent price movement and the situation of the economy, I've been a little hesitant, but I also think now is the greatest moment to. What do you think about the dollar?

  6. Philomena O Driscoll

    Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

  7. Syneeka C. Adams Williams

    My friend’s property taxes just went from $300 to $4000. What does that tell you? Yes, there is going to be a recession to be clear. And not just a richsession, an everyone recession.

  8. Naomi Gonzales

    A lot of folks have been going on about a January rally and said stocks that would be experiencing significant growth these new year season, any idea which stocks this may be? I just sold my home in the Boca Grande area and I’m looking to remunerate a lump sum into the stock market before stocks rebound, is this a good time to buy or no?

  9. Roland Ray

    As recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.

  10. Micheal Salinas

    I feel one Of the greatest challenges that we first timers face in the ma rket is that we end up losing all we have,making it difficult to find ourselves back to our feet. My biggest advice is to always seek the services of a professional just like I did when I ventured into it for the first time. Big thanks to Hilder Ferguson. I now make huge profits by weekly through her services while still learning to stand on my own.

  11. Edwin Hernandez

    I already thought we were in a recession.

  12. Sly Bedonie

    So u saying the are staying same and buying dollar for a dollar

  13. Nathan Davis

    Let me tell you if it effects the rich it will surely affect the poor.

  14. Derek Angel

    Another thing about this recession affecting the "rich"… there wouldn't have been a recession if we would've seen pay increase from these company's owners and board members and better healthcare insurance, retirement, benefits in general. The economy doesn't exist if there isn't enough people in the middle class circulating cash flow. If there isn't a lot of buying and selling between a large quantity of people, then that isn't a market. Monopolization is a problem these these, and disguising company ownership through parent company programs is disguising how the wealth gets distributed upward. If billionaires and millionaires paid their employees better, then this circulating economy would be stronger than ever right now… and they'd STILL be millionaires! Corporations have millions of dollars to pay actors, rappers, TV hosts, social media celebrities, athletes, and famous people in general to advertise their products on television or the internet but don't have the money to pay their workers a respectable wage. Good advertising is when everybody has the money they need to go shopping and more people can start buying your product because they have the money to and see your product on a shelf or an online ad with worker testimonials or regular customer testimonials, at least then your ads are helping regular people and not people that already have money and half of them are famous for no reason at all. America has caused a lot of it's own downfall, especially the citizens and how we've all misled society to think about having nice cars, clothes, and houses rather than teaching each other how to AFFORD those things and MAINTAIN these things.

  15. Derek Angel

    We could definitely fix our economy by focusing on farming and agriculture growth, as well as domestic fuel/oil production growth. Solar and battery technology is incredible and does a lot but we're going to need to look into biodiesel options or converting diesel fuel from recycled plastics. There's gotta be a way to keep diesel going because without it, a lot of people won't have energy in America. Geothermal heat/AC converters have shown extremely promising results for residential heating and air so that could be another way we could save energy costs and preserve fuel reserves. With strong food and strong energy productions, we can feed the country and provide them with the energy they need (scientists, doctors, lawyers, police officers, teachers, engineers, constructions workers, EMT's, etc.)

  16. Windarti

    Invest in Digital assets its a great way to invest your money. The team is constantly checking the market for changes and make sure that you are always informed about the best time to invest. As a result, I have made more money than ever before, and I don't have to manage my portfolio on my own! Invest in digital assets , it's worth it!…..

  17. Ronbo Omega

    Idiots we are already in a recession.

  18. Sarocklivinglarge

    Carney's face at 6:30 after Kudlow says we might need more money printing….priceless! The way I see it this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don't have any more economies to utilize to control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.

  19. Bill

    CBS, ABC, CNN, MSNBC. Panic Inc.

  20. Chris The Ciera Guy

    Come on, the average Joe 6-pack has already felt like they're in a recession! Wall street hasn't represented Main street in a long time, stock prices do not accurately represent how the average American is living.

  21. Anthony B

    Rich-cession huh? How are all these companies getting record profits and firing people? The same companies that took millions in Covid aid. These people are all crooks and politicians in both parties help them get away with it because guess who funds their campaign. The rich are getting richer, and the poor are getting poorer.

  22. Car Hoarder

    We’re in one since last year

  23. Chris Robinson

    Chocolate rations are down…

  24. Art15Foundry

    It's probably time to change the definition again.

  25. Maxp

    Imagine believing we only have a 3.5 percent unemployment and we haven’t been in a recession

  26. Mesut Serim

    A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time!

  27. JA G

    Chances of one?
    We are already in one, just media is delaying to say so.

  28. darrell dee

    This country hasn't been able to operate within a budget since 1776. However, at this point with all the recession talk that's gone on the past year or so, I think we're just going to end up talking ourselves into one.

  29. Jon

    The feds previously mentioned that the inflation was transitory and then was like “oh $hit it’s not!” Time to raise rates but we will land softly. A soft landing is unlikely either!

  30. Designer Eats

    This is dumb. We have been in a recession!!!

  31. Tramaine Samuels

    We just want to know when will gas and groceries prices go down.

  32. Joe

    The Fed has been extraordinarily wrong about what rates should be and Janet Yellen gets rewarded for it with a cushy stint as treasury secretary proving once and for all that merit and success have nothing to do with who gets appointed to government positions.

  33. Seventh child

    YET…60 BILLION DOLLARS SENT TO THE UKRAINE …400 MILLION DOLLARS SENT TO TAIWAN….BILLIONS SPENT ON ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS COMING ACROSS THE VARIOUS BORDERS ILLEGALLY EVERY SINGLE DAY EACH YEAR, NOT TO MENTION JOE MACHIN'S WIFE RECEIVING REPORTEDLY UP TO 1 BILLION DOLLARS FOR HER ORGANIZATION!…..CORRUPTION, GREED, LIES, MANIPULATION, AND MORE GREED!

  34. Seventh child

    WE ARE AT A PREDEPRESSION STATUS!….GOVERNMENT LYING ABOUT STATS!….INCREASED FOOD PRICES, RENTS AND MORTGAGES, VARIOUS INSURANCES, GAS, HEALTHCARE, WATER, UTILITIES, MILLIONS MORE LOSING THEIR JOBS!……CLOSINGS OF VARIOUS STORES…INCREASED HOMELESSNESS, MANY WORKING CLASS PEOPLE, RETIREES, VETS, DISABLED LIVING IN HOTELS AND MOTELS, THEIR VEHICLES, VARIOUS SHELTERS, FRIENDS OR FAMILY!…

  35. John Talmage

    Re-Capitulation…not recession.

    These "news pieces" are conditioning primers to keep people from taking to the streets….. And this time they're BS'ing by saying that it's going to hit the rich.

    Translation: extremely wealthy are going to make lower returns on their hedge-fund investments

    There's no recession coming, just a Re-Capitulation of all that "free" pandemic money passed out….

    TIME TO GET IT BACK.

    Money News is nonsense 90% of the time

  36. christian godspeed

    That a lie they just say there are jobs out there but there aren’t any.

  37. Andrey Kovalskiy

    When I started properly monitoring my investments, I started to amass riches. The importance of professional mentoring cannot be understated. Without the right coaching, people are more likely to make errors and lose money. This is why Juliann Hart's tactics are different and incredibly successful, which is why I prefer to invest with her.

  38. bambi Carter

    No such thing as a rich session, middle class always suffer the most. We’re in this because the rich don’t pay there fair share. They have politicians in there pockets.

  39. Jess Barnett

    This economy makes 0 sense. Stuff is way too expensive. Rich people in malls seem in Lalaland while the rest of America goes without. Gas goes up 25 cents in one day but not one news outlet talks about that jump.

  40. Thomas Vankuiken

    Harms the rich = the rich leave for better economic conditions in other countries. That's common sense and predictable of what always occurs. That's a decrease for all.

  41. Robert DominicanRepublic

    All of this consumer "spending" is being done with credit cards and banks have already started ringing the alarm bell for the pending disaster.

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