Paul Tudor Jones, the celebrated trader, predicts strong likelihood of nearing recession in Q3

by | Oct 13, 2023 | Recession News | 24 comments




Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones joins ‘Squawk Box’ to discuss the U.S. economic and market outlook, recession fears, and shares his thoughts on bitcoin….(read more)


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Legendary trader Paul Tudor Jones, renowned for his successful predictions on market shifts, has recently sounded the alarm bells, indicating a high likelihood of an impending recession in the third quarter of this year. His insights are taken seriously by investors worldwide, as Jones has a proven track record of accurately predicting major market upheavals.

Paul Tudor Jones rose to fame after correctly forecasting the 1987 stock market crash, which earned him the reputation of an influential trader. He has since been recognized for his acute analysis and ability to identify significant turning points in the market. Jones, who founded Tudor Investment Corporation, manages one of the most successful and influential hedge funds globally.

Speaking at the Greenwich Economic Forum in November 2021, Paul Tudor Jones pointed out several factors that have raised concerns about a potential recession. He highlighted the surging inflation rates, supply chain disruptions, labor shortages, and the Federal Reserve’s response to these economic challenges as key indicators. Jones believes that all these factors combined could potentially lead to an economic downturn.

Inflation has been a persistent concern throughout 2021, and Jones warns that it could continue to rise in the coming months. The supply chain disruptions, caused by the pandemic and exacerbated by the global chip shortage, have also put significant pressure on various industries. These disruptions have resulted in delays, increased costs, and reduced productivity for businesses worldwide.

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Moreover, labor shortages have emerged as a significant issue across several sectors. Companies are struggling to find qualified workers to meet increasing demand, which further contributes to productivity challenges and rising wages. Jones suggests that these labor issues could have a detrimental impact on economic growth.

A critical aspect that Jones mentioned was the Federal Reserve’s response to these economic challenges. The central bank has been implementing accommodative policies, including near-zero interest rates and significant quantitative easing. However, Jones expressed concerns that the Fed might be slow in responding to rising inflation and might struggle to strike the right balance between stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation.

Jones painted a concerning picture of the global economic landscape and urged investors to be cautious. While he emphasized that predicting the precise timing of a recession is virtually impossible, he firmly believes that the third quarter of 2022 presents a significant risk.

Investors are paying close attention to Jones’ warning and taking steps to protect their portfolios. They are diversifying across asset classes, reducing exposure to vulnerable sectors, and implementing risk management strategies to mitigate potential losses.

However, it is worth noting that Jones’ prediction is not a certainty, and economists and market analysts have different views on the possibility of a recession. Many argue that the global economy has shown remarkable resilience and adaptability during the pandemic, aiding its recovery.

Nonetheless, Paul Tudor Jones’ reputation as a legendary trader and his successful track record of predicting market movements have earned him credibility among investors. As the third quarter of 2022 approaches, market participants will closely observe economic indicators to determine whether his warning comes to fruition or not.

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24 Comments

  1. DLH

    Anytime this man's mouth moves…I listen.

  2. Thommy Callou

    Mo tres chere con frere
    On a faim

  3. Sofjen FX

    legend

  4. Selma

    wish we could hear more frequent updates from PTJ on cnbc

  5. kenny thompson

    Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stock and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.

  6. Trading Poker

    Paul TJ is the best!!! Almost always spot on and give clear honest advice. Thanks!

  7. kim young

    To combat the negative effect of inflation, it’s a good idea to diversify your portfolio across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, and real estate, since this can help protect your portfolio against inflation. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $550k during recessions

  8. Kang Minsu

    There’s more and more of a concern that incoming data is revealing that the Fed might be a little bit behind the curve than maybe they expected heading into this year,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green. How are other people in this market raking in over $350k gains within months

  9. David H

    Never trust a rich trader, they want you to sell when they are buying.

  10. Ray Katout

    They’ve been saying that since Uncle Joe took office! The oligarchs want him out

  11. Hassan Muhamed

    People don't you get tired of people showing how much they have made instead of showing how they did it? I have been trading with Mr Thomas Kostas’s strategy and things has been awesome for me. I made $5300 the a week i let him handle my account. I have so much trust in him because he showed me the way.

  12. Glen

    This guy really nailed the problem. The post Covid stock bubble had to burst at some point.

  13. Conrad

    Recession is pushed by over-spending on frivolous and irrelevant things by Uncle Joe and his crew, just like Obama! It was not like that during the trump regime, every sector of the economy is starting to falter, and the population is having to cope with the highest cost of living in nearly four decades. My question is where should we put our investment money now to better prepare for the future and a liquidity crisis? I have $102,000 to grow

  14. Itsnowjoke

    Stock market is dramatically overvalued in a world where you can get 4.75 percent with no risk . Either stock price needs to fall or the interest rates need to come down hard and fast as the fed does not want the wealth effect they would prefer stock prices to fall .

  15. JCP

    I get so annoyed with the news casters not explaining to the novice citizen, the citizen that does not follow politics or usually pay close attention to the economy. We are going to fall flat on our face and the middle class, lower middle class citizen are going to suffer. The major differences being to begin with the last recession with the newly elected Democratic Party had the chance to get deep into our government and find all secrets of every umbrella under that Executive Branch, from the Military, Federal Reserve, The FBI and CIA, every single little governing body. For more information simply google the President’s cabinet and know that each and every sector was infiltrated. The department of home defense became a prime target for liberal parties that preach change- no longer wanting America to remain one nation under God and under our thriving Constitution. Since then we have seen a major decline in our countries should I say… smoothness… our economy has suffered economically, and our borders are now basically non existent. Thus placing our world weak in regards to keeping the Cartel away from our families and further advancing America’s fall in regards to citizens addicted to drugs and making them no longer a productive part of society affecting us all. The borders allow extremists to enter and put us at risk for terrorist attacks and fulfilling the old time proven statement saying that the best way to take a country down is from the inside out. That is what is happening. Some of us realize that , those that love history and politics and we sincerely vote for America as we KNEW it. We voted Trump who tried his best to turn us around. To only have every America protecting addendum and Executive order vetoed by the left. Now our country lived thru a pandemic known as Covid. One I think was invented to take out the older population, with that being my opinion. But the effects of Covid is not an opinion. Covid weakened our economy like never before, made our citizens reliant to the government giving us handouts. These handouts brain washing the younger generation to like the simplicity of sitting at home and drawing a check. Tha pandemic hurt businesses and shut down a lot of the mom and pop locally family owned generational wealth lineages to be passed down to their next generation. Covid weakened our law enforcement and made our cities weaker and our citizens more vulnerable to crime attacks being left ungrateful. Democrats froze student loans a billion dollar industry in the U.S. and people paying those back learned to spend , spend , spend and not worry about debt. The government then drops ball and stops Covid hand outs, stops extra food assistance. Closes our pipeline more than doubling our gas prices, which raises all other foods and goods across the board. Student loans are then made to be paid back, though not yet, I read coming this fall. This will help push us into possibly the worst recession we have yet to see. Our borders are destroyed and our communities no longer safe by having safe, vetted citizens. The nations are coming together to do away with not only our American Dollar but individual countries forms of currency. All the digital money sharing apps, you all are ushering it in. When the dollar is gone, so is putting back money for your family, for every penny will be digitally followed and tracked.(Those family safety deposit boxes will be non- existent). Now the biggest factor of all, the National Debt! China owns us. We default, we suffer. God only knows what will happen. What do I think? I think China will take over eventually. And for those of us thumping Bible lovers…it has to happen. Our religion will start to be greatly targeted. And I see it happening today in America where as students are fighting for the right to express Christian sayings on their clothes. I even catch myself wanting to push this fight off for Atleast my lifetime! I offer up the suggestion for all students everywhere to wear uniforms and keep their religion to themselves. This will not happen. The fighting will begin and Christians will be shall we say “controlled”. The rest of the world will set up and one world type of religion that satisfies most stating that they can believe in what ever they want to thinking that all religions lead to God. The time is coming folks, the time is here. And I for one know that no matter what we go through and have to endure… in the end God wins. The true church will pray our way through this all the while saying … Come Quickly Lord Jesus. Trump gets elected… we have more time. He does not…. Mark my words… it is over!

  16. Necromancer

    Last time i listened to Paul Tudor Jones it was 2020 Jan, a month before Covid hit. When few hundred people had been exposed, in WEF he warned that this virus could be dangerous to stock market. I wish i had listened to him. The guy was SPOT ON. I wont ignore this time. Really need to be cautious this year

  17. Justin McCarthy

    Why would anyone running a bank or financial institution run their business based on what a government official tells them? Amazing! All these MBA's, Finance Majors and graduates of the top schools have no clue about what to anticipate when the central bank and government rapidly increase the money supply and flood the economy with liquidity.

  18. withonor

    They keep talking about recessions, completely ignoring that we're in the worst depression in history. It's silly, like recessions have doubled in frequency because they're avoiding reality. Legendary my butt. He could've just said, "I have no clue," and saved us 5 minutes.

  19. Ray Pease

    Why does a guy this smart not understand these cycles are by design to cause a widening of the wealth gap… How many normal people can invest now when it costs WAY more to live and many couldn't afford it before… The rich don't care about a couple thousand more per month in expenses… Granted I am using their crony system to make money but sharing it to wake as many people as possible up!

  20. S Sing

    And then u have a recession once they cut. Just get it over with. Crush things by raising rates high then pull off the band aid. We need stitches

  21. MoneyNotes

    I don't hear even one professional financial analyst, nor economist factoring in the 52,000,000 who are 18 to 30 years old and powering the consumer economy in all its phases: employment, competition for adult household goods and services, cash, debt, etc.
    Right behind the 52,000,000 are an additional 68,000,000 who are under 18 and fueling their parents' and grandparents buying and spending, and borrowing behaviors. In combination, the 4 groups make up almost all of thr USA population.

  22. Deesus

    I hate to agree with this ZIRP BOY but I’m in agreement. Recession in Q3 looks likely given the recent global figures.

    They’ve called for recession for 2 years but finally we’re here.

  23. Michael Johnson

    Fed is NOT done raising rates. They will continue raising rates until the economy is wrecked.

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