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REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation

Tomorrow, on February 24, 2023, there will be two important economic releases in the United States expected to stir up the financial markets: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index and New Home Sales.

The PCE Index, which is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, is a measure of the average change in prices that consumers pay for goods and services over time. It is released monthly and is closely watched by investors, policymakers, and analysts as it provides insight into the level of economic activity and inflation in the country.

The previous release of the PCE Index showed a year-over-year increase of 5.5% in January 2023, the highest level in nearly four decades. This figure surpassed the Federal Reserve’s target of 2% inflation and raised concerns about whether the central bank would raise interest rates to curb inflation or maintain accommodative policies to support economic growth.

Analysts expect that the PCE Index for February 2023 will show a slight moderation compared to the previous month, with a consensus estimate of 5.3% YoY. However, if the figure comes in higher than expected or shows signs of accelerating inflation, it could fuel speculation of a more hawkish stance by the Federal Reserve, which would likely lead to a sell-off in equity markets and a rise in bond yields.

Another crucial economic release scheduled for tomorrow is the New Home Sales report, which measures the number of new single-family homes sold during the previous month. This report is considered an important indicator of the health of the housing market and the broader economy, as it reflects the level of consumer confidence and demand for housing.

The previous release in January 2023 showed a robust increase of 6.1% MoM, beating analysts’ expectations despite the rising mortgage rates and supply chain disruptions affecting the housing sector. The consensus estimate for February 2023 is for a slight decline of 1.8% MoM, which may reflect a normalization in the housing market after months of strong performance.

However, if the figure comes in weaker than expected or shows signs of a slowdown in the housing market, it could signal fears of a broader economic slowdown or recession, which would likely lead to a sell-off in equities and higher demand for safe-haven assets.

Overall, investors should pay close attention to the PCE Index and New Home Sales reports due out tomorrow, as they have the potential to affect the direction of financial markets and shape the Federal Reserve’s policies in the coming months. As always, it is wise to remain vigilant and adopt a diversified investment strategy that can weather potential volatility and uncertainty in the markets.