Tom welcomes back Peter Goodburn from Elliot Wave International to the show.

Peter explains that a super cycle refers to a long-term pattern in commodity prices, which can last for decades. Goodburn presents a quarterly chart of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, showing a typical Elliott wave, five-wave pattern that progressed from the Great Depression lows in 1933 to the late 2000s. Each wave represents a distinct phase of the cycle, with wave one lasting until the 1960s, wave two extending into the late 1970s and early 1980s, wave three leading to gold’s initial all-time high, and wave four ending in the late 1990s. Wave five reached its peak just before the financial crisis in 2008. He cautions against using the term “commodity super cycle” for more recent periods and explains that the current phase is actually a counter-trend phase within a larger long-term pattern.

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Goodburn predicts significant upside in commodities, particularly in oil and copper, over the next two to three years. He advises investors to have a methodology, such as Elliott Wave, to determine market lows and to approach investing with a cautious mindset.

Peter also covers the relationship between commodity prices, inflation, and interest rates. He believes that there will be bouts of inflation in the coming years, leading to a rise in commodity prices. He predicts that interest rates will rise again, contributing to another surge in inflation. However, he cautions that a sudden surge in interest rates could have negative consequences for commodities and trigger a significant drop in stock markets.

Lastly, Peter touches on the relationship between the dollar and precious metals. Goodburn expects the dollar to weaken this year and recommends investing in precious metals as a hedge against de-dollarization. He provides some targets for gold and feels that silver and platinum will also outperform. Gold miners may offer strong upside potential, but Peter also recommends physical precious metals as a means to mitigate counterparty risk.

Time Stamp References:
0:00 – Introduction
0:48 – Commodity Cycle Theory
15:45 – Equities & Risks
20:20 – Inputs & Inflation
27:06 – Fed Control Vs. Markets
31:44 – A Global Phenomena
36:23 – Dollar Short-Term Outlook
42:39 – Elections & Confidence
45:18 – Precious Metals & Dollar
50:30 – Timing & The Metals
55:50 – Slowdowns & Base Metals
1:01:25 – Wrap Up

Talking Points From This Episode
– Peter explains the concept of commodity super cycles and predicts significant upside in commodities, particularly in oil and copper, over the next few years.
– Goodburn believes that bouts of inflation and a rise in commodity prices will occur, fueled by rising interest rates.
– Goodburn expects the dollar to weaken this year, recommending investment in precious metals as a hedge.

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Peter Goodburn is the founding partner of WaveTrack International and has extensive experience in trading and commodities. In the late 1970s, he created the first OTC copper option product and devised the option-evaluation software program Opval. His fascination with price activity and its relationship to market news led him to explore the Elliott Wave Principle. He is a member of the U.K.’s Society of Technical Analysts and a Certified Financial Technician recognized by the International Federation of Technical Analysts. He has published forecasts in various journals and delivered presentations for major industry bodies and corporate clients.

#PeterGoodburn #Commodities #Supercycles #Oil #EquityMarkets #Fed #Rates #Dollar #Recession #ElliottWave #Technicals #PreciousMetals #MarketTiming #Copper #Platinum #Palladium #Dedollarization…(read more)

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Peter Goodburn: Inflation is Coming Back With a Vengeance

Renowned market analyst Peter Goodburn has been making headlines with his bold predictions about the return of inflation. With the world still reeling from the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, many are left wondering what the future holds for global economies. Goodburn’s insight into the potential resurgence of inflation has caught the attention of investors and economists alike.

In a recent interview, Goodburn warned that inflation is making a comeback with a vengeance. According to him, the massive stimulus packages and quantitative easing measures implemented by central banks around the world are setting the stage for a significant uptick in inflation. Goodburn believes that these measures, combined with supply chain disruptions and the rebounding demand for goods and services, will drive up prices across the board.

Goodburn’s analysis is not without merit. In recent months, global supply chains have been strained due to disruptions caused by the pandemic. From shortages of essential goods to delays in production and shipping, these challenges have led to increased costs for businesses and consumers. Furthermore, the unprecedented amounts of liquidity injected into the financial system have raised concerns about the potential for runaway inflation.

For investors, the prospect of inflation carries significant implications. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of money, leading to higher prices for goods and services. It can also have a detrimental impact on fixed-income investments and savings, as the returns may not keep pace with rising prices. In such an environment, investors may seek out assets that provide protection against inflation, such as commodities, real estate, and equities.

Goodburn’s warnings serve as a wake-up call for policymakers and investors to prepare for the potential resurgence of inflation. As central banks continue to inject liquidity into the system and governments unleash fiscal stimulus measures, the risk of inflation should not be underestimated. It is crucial for individuals and businesses to take proactive measures to hedge against the potential impact of rising prices and diminishing purchasing power.

While the exact trajectory of inflation remains uncertain, Goodburn’s insights offer valuable food for thought for those seeking to navigate the economic landscape in the coming years. As the global economy continues to rebound from the pandemic, the specter of inflation looms large on the horizon. The key lies in being prepared and staying informed about the evolving economic environment.

In conclusion, Peter Goodburn’s warnings about the resurgence of inflation are a timely reminder of the potential challenges ahead. The combination of loose monetary policies, supply chain disruptions, and pent-up demand has created fertile ground for rising prices. Investors and policymakers alike would do well to heed Goodburn’s insights and take proactive measures to mitigate the impact of inflation on their financial well-being.