Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder and Editor of The Daily Gold, joins us to review market moves as the Fed nears the end of their rate hikes, and if commodities might keep getting upward traction if inflation pops back higher over the next few months. We review the technical pricing action in the CRB commodities index which has been gaining some ground to the upside, and if this paired with inflation could be a second-order effect on gold, silver, and the PM mining stocks. We also review potential economic outcomes should we see an increase in the 10-year bond yield, and a steepening of the yield curve.

Next we pivot over to what would happen if gold breaks out to new highs in an inflationary backdrop before the recession and deflationary pressures really set in. It may mean another correction from higher levels, before reversing back up again and then that move starting to attract more generalist capital. Diving down into the precious metals stocks, we unpack what could happen to producers margins if inflation takes back off while gold and silver are rising in tandem, and we also look at what it will take to improve sector sentiment and get financings going again for the junior resource stocks.

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Possible Leg Higher in Commodities Before Recession

Commodities have always been a crucial aspect of our global economy, driving growth and development in various sectors such as agriculture, energy, and manufacturing. Over the past few years, we have witnessed a decline in commodity prices due to factors such as oversupply, sluggish demand, and geopolitical tensions. However, there are indications that these bearish trends may reverse direction, leading to a possible leg higher in commodities before the onset of a recession.

One major factor that could contribute to a potential rebound in commodity prices is the global economic recovery. Many countries have implemented measures to stimulate their economies, such as fiscal stimulus packages and loose monetary policies. These actions have the potential to boost demand and spur economic growth, which in turn could lead to an increase in the demand for commodities.

Furthermore, as the world recovers from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, we are witnessing an increasing focus on infrastructure development. Governments and institutions are ramping up investments in areas such as transportation, energy, and telecommunications. This renewed emphasis on infrastructure development would likely drive up the demand for commodities such as steel, cement, and copper.

Another crucial factor is the renewed interest in clean energy. With the growing concern over climate change and the need to transition to more sustainable energy sources, there has been a surge in demand for commodities required in renewable energy production. Wind turbines, solar panels, and electric vehicle batteries all require metals such as copper, nickel, and lithium. As countries around the world strive to meet their renewable energy targets, the demand for these commodities is expected to rise significantly.

Moreover, geopolitical tensions and supply disruptions might also contribute to a leg higher in commodity prices. Political instability in certain regions can lead to disruptions in the supply chains, causing prices to spike. Conflicts or natural disasters can impact commodity-producing countries, leading to decreased production and increased prices. Therefore, keeping a close eye on geopolitical events is crucial when analyzing the potential for a leg higher in commodities.

While these factors may point to a possible rebound in commodity prices, it is essential to acknowledge the cyclical nature of the commodity market. Periods of higher prices are often followed by downturns as supply catches up with demand or as economic conditions change. Therefore, it is crucial for investors and market participants to exercise caution and conduct detailed research and analysis.

In conclusion, several factors indicate a possible leg higher in commodities before the onset of a recession. The global economic recovery, increased investments in infrastructure, focus on renewable energy, and geopolitical tensions are all contributing to this scenario. However, it is crucial to approach the commodities market with caution, as it is subject to inherent volatility and cyclical patterns. Conducting thorough research and analysis will be instrumental in making informed decisions and capitalizing on potential opportunities in the commodities market.