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According to a fairly historically accurate model, Biden’s presidency would need to do a massive 180 for him or Harris to win re-election.

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#13Keys #2024Election…(read more)

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Title: Analyzing the ’13 Keys’ Model: Why Biden (or Harris) Will Lose in 2024

Introduction:
As political pundits and analysts try to gauge the potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election, various models and frameworks are being employed to predict the winner. One such model, the ’13 Keys’ system, developed by Professor Allan Lichtman, has accurately forecasted the results of every American presidential election since 1984. In this article, we will examine the ’13 Keys’ framework and analyze why this model indicates that President Joe Biden, or possibly Vice President Kamala Harris, will not secure re-election in 2024.

Understanding the ’13 Keys’ Model:
The ’13 Keys’ model is based on evaluating long-term factors that hold sway over American voters’ decisions. These keys are categorized as either ‘true’ or ‘false’, with each true statement favoring the incumbent party’s retention of power. If six or more of the keys are false at the time of the election, the incumbent party is predicted to lose. This model focuses solely on the objective indicators of electoral history rather than relying on polls or public opinion.

Analyzing the Indicators:
1. Party Mandate: The key is false since Biden’s party did not win the presidency by a clear majority, as they secured a narrow victory over former President Trump in 2020.
2. The Incumbent’s Party Primary: This key is undetermined as it depends on whether Biden or Harris will be the Democratic nominee and if they face strong opposition within their own party.
3. Incumbent Candidate Charisma: While Biden maintains a strong support base, some argue that his charisma may not match the energy exhibited by opponents on the campaign trail, potentially turning this key false.
4. Challenger Charisma: This key depends on the Republicans’ nominee in 2024. A charismatic Republican could have an advantage, creating uncertainty regarding Harris or Biden’s chances.
5. Policy Change: As an incumbent president, Biden’s policy changes could potentially be limited in a divided government. Therefore, this key may fall false.
6. Social Unrest: With recent years marked by divisive issues and protests, this key might be false due to the ongoing social unrest.
7. Scandal: Thus far, the Biden administration has remained relatively scandal-free, tilting this key towards true.
8. Foreign or Military Failure: The key remains undetermined, as unforeseen events can shape the perception of foreign policy success or failure leading up to the election.
9. Foreign or Military Success: Similar to the previous key, the outcome will depend on how the administration handles international issues closer to the election.
10. Incumbent Policy Success: The judgment on Biden’s policy success is subjective and will vary opinion. This key’s outcome may become clearer as the administration’s term progresses.
11. Incumbent’s Personal Popularity: This key will likely remain true since Biden and Harris possess a loyal base of supporters, but their popularity among the broader electorate is uncertain.
12. Challenger Policy: The Republican nominee’s policy proposals will influence this key, making it difficult to predict at this stage.
13. Economic Growth: The state of the economy going into the 2024 election will play a crucial role. A weak economy could sway this key to false.

Conclusion:
Based on an analysis of the ’13 Keys’ model framework and the current political landscape, it appears that President Joe Biden, or potentially Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, may face an uphill battle in securing re-election in 2024. While the model is not foolproof and unforeseen events can shift the landscape, the objective indicators suggest a challenging path to victory. However, it is important to remember that politics is dynamic, and a deeper assessment will be necessary as the election cycle unfolds.