Grant Williams, author of “Things That Make You Go Hmmm…” and host of The Grant Williams podcast, joins Julia La Roche on episode 127 for a wide-ranging conversation on macro.
The conversation explores the importance of investors being ready for both a recession and a soft landing at the same time in the current economic environment, which is not an easy thing for investors to do. Grant makes a case that the biggest sea change is it’s now time to play defense in the market.
The discussion delves into the importance of having a view on the US dollar and the impact of Japan’s monetary policy on financial markets. Grant shares his experience starting his career in Japan and discusses the worldviews of different generations and their impact on investing. He points out that Millennials are likely to learn some hard lessons about investing since they came of age in an environment where it was easy to make money.
Elsewhere, the concept of the Fourth Turning and the potential for conflict is explored. Grant shares his thesis on gold as a means of preserving purchasing power and problems with the CPI.
Grant also shares the worst experience in his career.
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Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Grant Williams
1:30 Macro view
3:00 Two opposing ideas at once
5:24 Difficult to admit you’re wrong
8:15 Need to understand the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen
9:15 U.S. Dollar outlook
10:29 Bank of Japan moves
13:40 Second-order effects of Japan on the global markets/economies
17:00 Japan’s market an alternative to the U.S.
18:23 Grant’s early career years in Japan
21:00 1987 crash
23:50 People want to help
26:15 World views we form generationally
29:00 Millennials are going to learn hard lessons about investing
32:12 View of the economy between younger and older generations
34:46 The Fourth Turning
39:33 ‘The Economic Consequences of The Peace’ January 2015 talk
42:12 Worry about my kids, my grandkids. We’ve reached that point.
43:25 The big sea change is it’s now time to play defense
44:11 Gold
51:02 CPI
57:43 Worst thing that happened in Grant’s career
#economy #recession #gold…(read more)
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In uncertain economic times, it’s essential to prepare for all possible outcomes. Financial expert Grant Williams has been warning of a potential recession and a soft landing for some time now, and his advice to get rid of certainty and be prepared for any eventuality is more relevant than ever.
Williams emphasizes the importance of recognizing the signs of an approaching economic downturn and taking proactive steps to mitigate its impact. He believes that too many people tend to be overly confident in the stability of the economy, which can lead to reckless decision-making and financial vulnerability.
The key to being prepared for a recession and a soft landing, according to Williams, is to focus on building resilience. This means diversifying your investments, reducing debt, and maintaining a healthy cash reserve. Williams advises against taking unnecessary risks and recommends adopting a conservative approach to financial planning.
In addition, Williams stresses the importance of staying informed and being aware of the potential triggers for a recession. By staying up-to-date with economic indicators and market trends, individuals can better anticipate and respond to changing conditions.
Furthermore, Williams encourages individuals to adopt a mindset of adaptability and flexibility. In times of economic uncertainty, being able to adjust to changing circumstances and make quick decisions can make a significant difference in navigating through challenging times.
According to Williams, being mentally prepared for the possibility of a recession is just as important as being financially prepared. This includes being open to making lifestyle adjustments, cutting back on discretionary spending, and preparing for potential job losses or income reductions.
Ultimately, Williams’ message is clear: the best way to navigate a potential recession and a soft landing is to get rid of certainty and be prepared for all possibilities. By building resilience, staying informed, and adopting a mindset of adaptability, individuals can better position themselves to weather the storm and emerge stronger on the other side.
In conclusion, the advice from Grant Williams to get rid of certainty and prepare for a recession and a soft landing is a timely reminder to take a proactive and cautious approach to financial planning. By embracing uncertainty and being prepared for all outcomes, individuals can better protect themselves and their finances in challenging economic times.
Markets sit atop a "Wall of Worry" like Humpty Dumpty.
Others should watch your interviews, great to see you let the guest talk, it is not all about you, keep up the great job. Thanks for having top notch guests. Probably should subscribe. G
Great interview! Grant always leave me with a gem….ways to think and test my frameworks….this time he told some good stories!! 🙂
If BoJ raises interest rate, wont the Japanese stock market drop instead of going up?
Julia, I only discovered your channel a couple of months ago but I'm so glad I did. Your interview style is a breath of fresh air and you come across as someone who is an intelligent, knowledgeable, curious, and easily likeable human being. I will click on pretty much anything involving Grant Williams as he is hands down my favourite mind to listen to on all things economic. I never fail to gain insight from him, alongside a treasure trove of wisdom. This interview was a delight to watch/listen to. Thank you both.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014, so the bigger invasion was coming and a bigger war is still to happen.
"People are generally wired to help…". So much wisdom and humility in the entire interview.
His opening statement is right in line with my thinking … many experts calling for many different outcomes, nobody can be certain. I'm splitting the difference… 1/2 my portfolio in ladder of treasury bonds and TIPS, 1/2 in diversified stocks. Bond ladder is of duration to get me to get to social security at 67, then dependence on portfolio is much less.
Great job Julia!!! You're so endearing.
The notion that the wealthy Generations are are going to be willing to give up some of the benefits they've accured through the years is absolutely ridiculous. The wealthy generation will always be the elderly because they've been saving, investing and compounding for decades. That's simply how the math works. The snowflakes and cupcakes need to pay their student loans and live frugally before they build big houses and drive fancy cars – just like every generation that came before. The rude awakening for the Millenials is just starting. And its high time. There's no free lunch and they're about to learn that lesson the hard way. No trophies for just showing up.
Julia, love your work and I've invested for 60 years+. I'd like to humbly suggest a question you should ask all your guests. "Who is the smartest person in the industry you don't agree with?" I think this would be very thought provoking.
Drop in vol, markets going to the moon and the FED just backstopped all of it! Did not see that one ☝️
Grants thought on 30s and 40s. My grandma became a first time mother November 20,1941, had 2 more kids by 1945. I tried to tell the story about the rationing. All foods,fuel etc. Yet people flipped out about toilet paper during covid. My grandma was this conservative person for 98 years. She did have huge things, Yet every thing was a treasure to her. She was one of the Happiest people ever
defend what though.?….If you are a millenial with no assets or a pile of cash, then what are your options?