Which way will the RBI move in the upcoming Monetary Policy? Will it continue with the pause or will we see a cut on the back of strong GDP data? Latha Venkatesh talks to Samiran Chakraborty of Citi, Soumya Kanti Ghosh of SBI, Sonal Varma of Nomura, fmr chief statistician Dr. Pronab Sen & Sajjid Chinoy of JP Morgan
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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is all set to announce its latest monetary policy decision on June 8. The decision is eagerly awaited by industry experts, investors, and stakeholders across sectors. The central bank’s policy decision is crucial to steer the country’s economy out of the ongoing pandemic-induced crisis.
As the country grapples with the second wave of the pandemic, the RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das-led Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to take significant measures to stabilize the economy in its bi-monthly policy decision.
The policy decision comes at a time when the country has been witnessing an unprecedented rise in cases of COVID-19, leading to an inevitable strain on the healthcare infrastructure and multiple lockdowns that have disrupted economic activities.
Speaking of the main aspects that the MPC will focus on, the inflation rate is expected to play a key role. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has risen to an alarming 4.29% in April as compared to RBI’s target range of 2-6%. This rise in the CPI inflation rate is primarily driven by the fuel, food, and transportation sectors.
Fuel prices have been on the rise for a few months now due to an increase in international crude oil prices, while food prices have seen a significant surge recently due to supply side disruptions caused by the pandemic and crop damages caused by heavy rains. It is essential for the RBI to control this inflation rate to secure sustainable and inclusive growth in the long run.
Another vital aspect that the MPC will consider is the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate. After a sharp decline in GDP growth rate in the last fiscal year, the country has seen a revival in economic activities in recent months but continues to be below pre-COVID levels.
In the first quarter of the current financial year, GDP has grown by 1.6%, and the country is likely to witness a double-digit growth rate in the second quarter due to a low base effect. It remains to be seen how the MPC will use this data to make decisions on cutting, hiking, or pausing the repo rate.
Industry experts predict that the RBI is most likely to maintain the status quo and keep the repo rate unchanged at 4%. This move will undoubtedly bring some relief to the industry, which is eager to overcome the ongoing crisis.
Moreover, the stakeholders also expect the central bank to continue with its accommodative stance and extend the moratorium and restructuring package for borrowers, which was initially announced last year. This decision will provide some breathing space to borrowers who have been adversely affected by the pandemic.
Finally, talking about the new development- Citizen’s MPC. Lately, there has been a buzz about a ‘Citizen’s Monetary Policy Committee’ across various media outlets. This committee would comprise citizens of different backgrounds and industries, who would provide valuable inputs on monetary policy decisions. Although this is still under deliberation, if implemented, it would provide a more holistic approach to monetary policymaking and increase transparency.
In conclusion, the RBI’s policy decision will be crucial in determining the country’s economic outlook in the coming months and steering it out of the current crisis. With the right policy measures, the central bank can significantly reduce the impact of the pandemic on the economy and set it back on track towards growth and development.
Great discussion. Thank you to all participants.
If liquidity goes down because of Rs. 2,000 notes going out of circulation how will it hit vulnerable or poor sections of society, as Dr Sen says? Do poor people hold these highest denomination notes? I don’t think so. Point seems frivolous since as per my information most of these notes were being used in commercial/residential property transactions in their 60:40 deals. I appreciate Dr. Sen for always bringing out negative points through his incisive understanding of the subject. We need such eminences to remain cautious, else Lata will get too excited over positives and we might end up junking essential principle of conservatism. By the way congratulations to CNBC TV18 for having this Committee, each member is a gem and Lata does a great job of discussions except when she gets a bit excited, emotional.