ABC News’ chief economics correspondent Rebecca Jarvis breaks down what to know after Bloomberg economics found a 100% probability of a recession within the next 12 months.
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Recession Forecast Hits 100%: Bloomberg l GMA
With the global economy grappling with the impacts of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, economists and financial institutions have been closely monitoring the possibility of a recession. Bloomberg, the renowned financial news and data platform, along with GMA, one of the Philippines’ leading news networks, recently reported that the recession forecast has hit 100%.
The term “recession” refers to a significant decline in economic activity, typically characterized by a substantial drop in gross domestic product (GDP) over two consecutive quarters. This economic contraction is often accompanied by rising unemployment rates, declining consumer spending, and decreased business investment.
Bloomberg’s prediction of a 100% recession likelihood comes as no surprise given the widespread economic disruptions caused by COVID-19. The pandemic has triggered global lockdown measures and travel restrictions, leading to the suspension of various business operations and negatively impacting supply chains on a global scale. These factors, combined with reduced consumer demand and increased uncertainty, have contributed to a sharp contraction in economic activity across multiple sectors.
As nations struggle to contain the virus and develop effective treatment strategies, the global economic landscape remains uncertain. Governments worldwide have implemented aggressive fiscal and monetary measures to mitigate the effects of the recession, such as providing financial aid packages, implementing interest rate cuts, and injecting liquidity into financial markets.
In the Philippines, GMA reports that the country has experienced its first contraction in GDP since 1998 due to the pandemic and is now officially in a recession. The Philippine economy relies heavily on consumer spending and remittances from overseas Filipino workers, both of which have been significantly impacted by the current crisis. The government is implementing various measures, including fiscal stimulus packages, to support affected industries and help lead the country towards recovery.
However, the road to economic recovery remains challenging. High levels of uncertainty still surround the timeline for developing a vaccine and effectively distributing it globally. In the meantime, businesses are struggling to adapt to changing consumer behavior and adjust their operations to comply with strict health and safety protocols.
Amidst the concerning economic statistics, it is crucial to remember that a recession is not unusual during times of crisis. History has demonstrated that economies are resilient and have the ability to recover, given time and appropriate measures. Additionally, the pandemic has also accelerated digital transformation, forcing industries to innovate and adapt to new ways of conducting business. This adaptation could potentially speed up economic recovery by creating new avenues for growth and productivity.
While the recession forecast hitting 100% is undoubtedly a cause for concern, it is crucial to remain vigilant and informed. Governments, businesses, and individuals must continue to prioritize health and safety while simultaneously working towards economic stabilization and recovery. The cooperation and efforts of all stakeholders will ultimately determine how quickly nations can bounce back from this extraordinary global crisis.
As economists and analysts continue to monitor the economic landscape, it is important for individuals to remain financially informed and make sound decisions in uncertain times.
Given the situation, I think I should view a video on "How to survive the present recession." In reality, it's a total failure. I was amazed that some folks could still make more than $600k in a short amount of time. If that's still the situation, could you kindly explain?
But Biden just told me that everything was fantastic ! He was patting himself on the back for doing such a fantastic job……his state of the union speech sure painted a pretty picture…….someone is lying.
And we never even felt prosperity after 2008
This is just right wing propaganda, isn’t it?
Dig Bloomberg’s cable subscription expire over the summer? We’ve been in a recession for months already!
it's a depression
But the US was already in a recession
Already in a recession. Y’all are two quarters behind
Thats why I'm glad I have job security for now
Yes. Plenty of shitty jobs that don't pay enough to live.
With the recession rate these are undoubtedly desperate times, but in my opinion, there is no market condition a proper financial advisor can't scale through, especially ones that have been around since the crisis of '08 and before. I was raised to believe that the stock market was a rich man's game. However, I have been around long enough to truly taste just how profitable it can be.
Recession is a tool rich people use to keep us poor. It’s made up
It’s simple…it’s time for a reset.
how about redistributing the wealth? there’s no reason why the 1% owns over 40% of the economy. get real people and wake up
It's obviously not that bad I still see 40 thousand dollar plus vehicles all over the road campers rvs new mid engine corvettes. Apparently people have money. I have enough to survive but my cars are older
Time to start a war.
About these jobs… Lies!!!! Everyone is laying off. Several companies in the DFW metroplex I work with all have said they are either all on a hiring freeze or laying off employees. This job narrative they’re pushing is counterfeit.
You know what makes a recession, telling people there will be one. How do you get a toilet paper shortage, you tell people there is one.
Funny thing is the recession never left the us and they kept trying to cover it up with red tape and lies etc
Y'all CANT BLAME THIS ON TRUMP!!!
We’ve been in a recession
Let's Go Brandon
We.are.f
It ain’t silver lining. There are jobs opening but the jobs are low paid, and high responsibilities, so no one wants to work because they are miserable anyway living paycheck to pay check
there is no silver lining the jobs you're talking about are not middle class which means they make no economic growth counting growth and fast food and low-paying jobs does not stimulate the economy so don't BS me telling me there's one silver lining when there's really not and everybody knew a recession was coming or writing was on the wall for years
So labor, nothing with a livable wage
You can't go to the dollar store anymore cause everything is so damn expensive. Why do we have to be punished? We already struggling to pay bills and no I'm not working 2 or 3 jobs.
If they keep doing this and they will it's going to be mad max why do you think the elites are buying bunkers
I read somewhere that a recession is when your neighbors lose their jobs. And a depression is when you lose your job!
Thanks to Adolf trump for running the U.S like his many shitty and failed businesses
It is 100% because we are already 100% in a recession. These people have lost it
In other words, we’re fucked.