Maggie Lake is joined by Vincent Deluard, director of global macro strategy at StoneX Group, to discuss this morning’s key inflation data, stress on the banking system, and why infrastructure and chips are 2 reasons the U.S. will not see a recession in 2023.

In the second half of today’s show, Vincent will share which assets he believes will outperform in this new economic regime.

You can find more of Vincent’s work here:

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BREAKING: Recession News

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What Recession?

The term “recession” has been floating around for quite some time now, instilling fear and uncertainty among individuals and businesses alike. But is the notion of a recession as prevalent as it is made out to be? In recent times, it seems that the idea of a recession is nothing more than a bogeyman, haunting the minds of those unaware of the current economic climate.

To begin with, let’s dissect the definition of a recession. Simply put, a recession is a significant decline in economic activity, usually characterized by a decline in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), income, employment, and overall trade. The fear sets in when economists start predicting prolonged periods of economic slowdown, leading to declining purchasing power, layoffs, and a general downturn in the market.

However, current data suggests otherwise. Multiple factors point towards a relatively stable economic landscape, dispelling the notion of an impending recession. One of the significant indicators of a thriving economy is a robust job market. In many countries across the globe, unemployment rates are at record lows, with more job opportunities available than ever before. This not only injects confidence and disposable income into the market but also ensures a stable foundation for future economic growth.

Consumer spending is another crucial factor that indicates the absence of a recession. Despite occasional fluctuations, people continue to spend money on various goods and services. From automobiles to electronics, travel to entertainment, individuals are maintaining their purchasing power and driving economic growth. These spending patterns, combined with low-interest rates and accessible credit, further contribute to the overall stability of the economy.

Another metric that contradicts recession claims is the performance of financial markets. Stock markets are often seen as a barometer of economic health. In recent times, major stock indices have experienced consistent growth, breaking records and surpassing expectations. This upward trajectory doesn’t align with the gloom and doom rhetoric associated with recessions. It demonstrates investor confidence and suggests that businesses are performing well.

Furthermore, technological advancements and the rise of the digital economy have significantly altered the dynamics of the market. Traditional industries may experience setbacks, but new sectors, such as the e-commerce industry, technology startups, and the gig economy, continue to thrive. These sectors not only create job opportunities but also foster innovation and competitiveness, which act as catalysts for economic growth.

Of course, it is essential to acknowledge that economies are cyclical and that downturns are an inevitable part of the economic cycle. However, the current state of the global economy does not support the notion of a looming recession. It is pivotal to examine the facts rather than succumbing to the fear-mongering narratives that dominate popular discourse.

It is worth noting that some regions may face isolated economic challenges due to localized factors, such as political instability or trade disputes. However, these should not be mistaken for a global recession. It is crucial to distinguish between region-specific issues and the overall state of the world economy, which remains positive.

So, what recession? It seems that the idea of an imminent economic collapse is no more than a remnant of the past, when systems were less resilient and less interconnected. Today, we have progressed, adapted, and thrived in the face of various challenges. Rather than succumbing to fear, let us embrace the present and continue to build a prosperous future.