Construction employment is a significant driver of recessions in the US economy. Job losses almost always begin in the construction sector because it’s a very boom-bust industry.
We’ve seen a lot of layoff announcements in the US economy, mostly in the tech industry but we haven’t seen job losses in the sectors we normally do as the economy enters recession.
In this video, we’ll see why the economy hasn’t experienced any construction layoffs yet, if job losses are coming for the construction sector, and if this will be the final straw that puts the US economy into a recession.
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DISCLAIMER: This video does not provide investment or economic advice and is not professional advice (legal, accounting, tax). The owner of this content is not an investment advisor. Any securities, trading, or market discussion is incidental and solely for entertainment. Nothing herein shall constitute a recommendation, investment advice, or an opinion on suitability. The information in this video is provided as of its initial release date. The owner of this video expressly disclaims all representations or warranties of accuracy. The owner of this video claims all intellectual property rights, including copyrights, of and related to this video….(read more)
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My Final Thoughts on the Coming Recession
As the global economy tiptoes on a tightrope, with uncertainties looming over global markets, it is difficult to ignore the looming possibility of a recession. The COVID-19 pandemic has plunged the world into uncharted waters, testing the resilience of even the strongest economies. As we brace ourselves for what may come next, it is crucial to reflect on the potential consequences and devise strategies to navigate through these challenging times.
First and foremost, it is important to understand the underlying factors that could trigger a recession. The pandemic has disrupted supply chains, halted economic activity, and pushed many businesses to the brink of bankruptcy. Unemployment rates have surged, leading to reduced consumer spending and ultimately affecting demand for goods and services. With businesses struggling to survive, there is a risk of a domino effect, triggering layoffs and further dampening economic growth.
Moreover, the collapse in oil prices due to the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia has exacerbated the already fragile global economy. Many countries heavily rely on oil revenues, and a significant drop in prices could lead to fiscal deficits and financial instability. This, combined with the uncertainty surrounding Brexit and ongoing trade tensions between major economies, paints a rather bleak picture.
However, it is essential that we do not succumb to despair, but instead focus on proactive measures to weather the storm. Governments around the world have already implemented various stimulus measures, aiming to boost economic activity and alleviate the pressure on struggling businesses. These include lower interest rates, fiscal stimulus packages, and support for the worst affected sectors such as travel and hospitality.
For individuals, saving money and reducing unnecessary debt can provide a cushion during uncertain times. Diversifying investments and exploring lower-risk options can help mitigate the impact of a recession on personal finances. Furthermore, acquiring new skills or upgrading existing ones can bolster employability, increasing the chances of maintaining a steady income or transitioning into new job sectors.
It is not all doom and gloom, however. History has shown us that economies have a remarkable ability to recover from downturns. While the path to recovery may be arduous, the lessons learned from past crises can guide us towards a brighter future. Moreover, crises often lead to innovative breakthroughs and technological advancements as individuals and businesses find new ways to adapt and prosper.
Ultimately, it is vital to remain cautious while staying optimistic. Whether a recession is imminent or not, being prepared for economic fluctuations is wise. Strengthening personal and professional networks, embracing innovation, and cultivating resilience are key elements to thrive amidst uncertainty.
In conclusion, the possibility of a coming recession cannot be ignored, given the current global economic climate. However, by understanding the underlying causes, implementing proactive measures, and maintaining a positive mindset, we can overcome the challenges that lie ahead. It is during times of adversity that true resilience is tested, and it is through collaboration and determination that we can emerge stronger and more resilient than ever before.
We need homes built farms to feed people infrastructure improvements and trades skill training i dont see any problems but we will see inflation stick around while all this work is done
A perfect storm is brewing in the United States. Inflation, bank collapse, severe drought in the agricultural belt, recession, food shortages, diesel fuel and heating oil shortages, baby formula shortages, available automobile shortages and prices, the price of living place. It's all coming together and it could lead to a real disaster towards the end of this year (or sooner). With inflation currently at about 6%, my primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about $300k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
"final"
LOL you'll do another 50+ videos on the topic to milk it
Lol
I'm a carpenter and did a lot of research on this. Here are some statistics
Age distribution of trades
20-30: 7%
30-40: 25%
40-60: 68%
25% of carpenters are over 55 and will retire in 6 years
Need to hire 546,000 new workers for 2023
5% unemployment rate or lower. 2nd lowest ever next to 2019
342,000 new hires needed for 2024
Application rate dropped by 49% from 2020 to 2022
In February of 2023 the hiring decreased by 18,000 jobs but there were still 129,000 open positions
the sooner we can enslave robots the better
Correction: 'Depression'.
Nothing is 'normal' now.
'Rolling [Lags]' barrelling to the Collapse.
"Babe! Just pull the covers back over your head."
Very interesting.
Very interesting.
Seems to me like this is going to be far worse recession than 08 ever was! It's going to be a rough few years coming if not decade. Another 70s lost decade.
2 Years from now EPB will publish "How I called the recession was coming 2.25 years ago…" But actually the truth is this is more of a video about why this recession that was highly expected will not come anytime soon. Construction spending and Hiring has continued to increase DESPITE higher interest rates and higher inflation (housing material costs). Watch as the interest rates stabalize or even start going down and inflation stabalizes as well.
There's been nothing typical of US Govt./The Fed actions since at least 9/11. Annual Federal deficits skyrocketed (again) post-9/11 during two ill-advised "nation-building" military campaigns, the economy was in recession as 9/11 occurred. The Fed continually lowered interest rates while the Treasury Dept. mailed out unsolicited "economic stimulus" checks to many/most taxpayers (outside of the typical annual sequence of tax "refund" checks). The economy gradually "improved" (consumer spending, mortgage lending, auto lending and low/tolerable unemployment numbers). But that was all artificial/govt manipulated. Then came the Great Mortgage Crash leading to Wall Street meltdown. I say all this to say that none of the fundamental fiscal/economic behaviors have been tightened or corrected, little to nothing was learned or "fixed". We were just waiting for another Black Swan (see the three years of COVID) to tip it all over again. Is anyone really surprised?
If you yell “bear market” long enough, eventually you’ll be right.
I think while there will be some sort of economic slow down, it won't be wise to stay univested. A lot of companies over hired during the pandemic, and an example of this is Google. I'm not 100 percent sure of exact numbers, but in a year, their workforce increased roughly 20 percent. That isn't sustainable and might have worked during the artificial demand of covid, but not now. Stay invested in big tech no matter what, and you will become rich.
Great video. We are all seeking for financial independence and a better way of life. This is not difficult to achieve with savvy investing, a frugal lifestyle, and cautious budgeting. I'm glad I learned early on to work hard for financial independence. As Warren Buffet said, he has seen this happen many times in his life. Not an investor, My husband and i never earned more than a middle class salary. We plan to get retired at 58 with a stock portfolio worth $4M. We have never sold so much as one share of stock.
Looking forward to this being your FINAL THOUGHTS! Now go away please.
If this is your final thoughts on the coming recession…why did you post more recent videos about the coming recession?
I'm confused!
Lol
Great Analysis
2 months in and it's finally starting to show.
While I've only gotten through like 30 seconds of your video so far and I'm very excited to go through the rest and I will put it on an edit after I finish it, I wanted to say that we are by the old definition already in a recession.
I could be wrong but I'm pretty sure we change the definition of a recession to make it seem like the US isn't in a recession.
This has been decades in the making. And whether the news tells us or not, this is the great great depression coming. The future is so bright. We got to wear shades. Get it?
So i live in a popular area that is 80,000 units shy of demand for rent. So to me it looks like real-estate will stay high and rents will go up.
I assume the manufacturing sector is also holding up?
Who wants to work in construction when you are the first to lose your job when it's time for the Fed to tighten the screws?
What keeps a company from simply buying bogus building permits to make it look like the economy is still good?