Jeff DeGraaf, Renaissance Macro Research, and Ed Clissold, Ned Davis Research, join ‘Closing Bell’ to discuss the domestic and global markets, recession fears, and a potential bull market….(read more)
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The global economy has been in a state of constant flux in recent years, with experts scrambling to predict future trends and identify potential triggers for a downturn. While many analysts are warning of an upcoming recession, Renaissance Macro Research’s Jeff DeGraaf believes that bears “might have it completely wrong” when it comes to the outlook for the economy.
According to DeGraaf, the factors that typically indicate a recession are not present in the current economic landscape. For instance, he notes that the yield curve has not inverted, indicating that investors have not lost confidence in the long-term prospects of the economy. He also points out that the housing market is showing signs of strength, as home builders are reporting solid sales figures.
Furthermore, DeGraaf suggests that many other indicators that are typically interpreted as bearish are actually pointing in a positive direction. For example, he notes that consumer sentiment remains strong, with individuals continuing to spend money in spite of concerns about the future.
DeGraaf’s analysis is not without its critics, of course. Many experts argue that the current expansion is long overdue for a correction, and that debt levels have reached unsustainable levels that are likely to trigger a recession sooner rather than later. Some point to the ongoing trade disputes between the US and China, as well as the ongoing political uncertainty in the UK and Europe, as potential triggers for a downturn.
Nonetheless, DeGraaf’s assessment is an important counterpoint to the dominant narrative of impending recession. He suggests that investors should be cautious about jumping to conclusions based on surface-level indicators, and instead focus on the underlying trends in the economy. While there is certainly cause for concern, it is possible that the global economy may yet weather the storm and continue to grow in the months and years ahead.
Is joke right? No bulls while the rate gates are up. :p
Apparently there's panic, worry and instabilities in families, communities and nations owing to inflation and govt. debts. It seems the only way to stay above water is passive income. I have $50k saved up which I want to commit to a worthwhile investment. I probably have to speak to a financial consultant for proper advice, problem is I don't know any. So I came here for help, would appreciate anyone helping me out.
We have already been in a recession since last year…a rolling recession that effects different parts of the economy at different times.
The longest time of an equity peak to a recession, that is what $7T will buy you, a little time… The very same debates went on in early May of 2008 on CNBC. Bears Sterns was behind us and it was full speed ahead! What a freaking joke.
We need Trump
I'm wondering if people who went through the financial crisis in 2008 had an easier time than me right now. The stock market is making me really worried because I've lost over $27,000 in just this month and I'm not making as much money as I used to. This is making me concerned that I might not have enough money saved up for my retirement since I can't add to my savings.
Consumer spending is pulling back real gdp is now 1% from 2% how can he say we’re in a bull market?
Every day we encounter novel challenges that have become the new standard. Although we previously perceived it as a crisis, we now acknowledge it as the new normal and must adapt accordingly. Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2023, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
We blew the biggest bubble that the world has ever seen and the subsequent bear market lasted only 9 months.
Possible?
Bottom Line: The Fed Rate at or near 5% equate to things breaking. Just takes 12-18 months to reach the recession. We have sticky Inflation levels, lowing growth (GDP), Layoffs in process, and gas is going back up in price, so I think we are in Stagflation. Bears are backed by 'Forward looking' data that points to a Q3-Q4 Recession and Forward PEs can't be maintained with shrinking corporate margins/earnings.
Stop lying
Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $280,000 savings to turn to dust.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
The market trend can turn around very quickly. In fact, the indexes often switch from a bear market to a bull market when the news is at its worst and the mood of investors is at its lowest point. I read an article of people that grossed profits up to $150k during red seasons, what are the best stocks to buy now or put on a watchlist?
This is just a way for the poor people to get poorer and the rich to get richer. The gab should be always there.
that means rates have to go higher and banks will be dropping
Just stop, get some help. We are having a recession, period. They putting themselves into pretzels trying to explain away an imminent recession, that may be slow to start but will happen.
Just buy tmf
Nobody can become financially successful overnight. They put in background work but we tend to see the finished part. Fear is a dangerous component hindering us from taking bold steps we need in other to reach our goals. you have to contend with inflation, recession, decisions from the Feds and all. I was able to increase my portfolio by $300k in months. You have to seek for help in the right places.
Of course they have it wrong, market has been screaming this at them for months but too stubborn to listen.
Everyone is whistling past the grave yard. Nothing has been fixed fiscally. The Fed rate is going to do that. Until then people will be lazy and think it’s all good. Blow through their savings and run up debt, because they are entitled.
I'm favoured, $230K every 4weeks! I can now afford anything and also support God's work and the church.
As the concensus became there will be a recession – the markets went up. Now there is more optimism arguing for no recession – the markets will fall.
These 3 are smart!
did he just say "indice" as singular for "indeces"?
I struggle with these contributors as if the FED wants to get to 2% inflation, how can they say that there will be no recession, people make it like reducing inflation is a exact science but clearly it is not.