Renowned bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach predicts likelihood of recession by Q2 2024

by | Dec 15, 2023 | Recession News | 34 comments

Renowned bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach predicts likelihood of recession by Q2 2024




While most investors believe another rate hike is on the way, DoubleLine Founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is not one of them. During Yahoo Finance Invest, Gundlach told Executive Editor Brian Sozzi “I think the Fed has stopped raising interest rates, I don’t think they’re gonna do it again.”

The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve this year has caused ripple effects in the markets, raising concerns about just how all of this will end. Gundlach explained his biggest concern right now, saying, “What worries me the most is the concept of higher for longer.” He explained that he does not think the Fed will cut rates in 2024, rather they will stay higher for longer, or “the economy will noticeably weaken, and they will do what they always do, and that is cut interest rates much more rapidly than they raised them.”

Gunlach also spoke about the 2024 election, the economy, consumer spending, and why he is concerned with the bond market.
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Billionaire bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, founder and CEO of DoubleLine Capital, is known for his keen insights into the economic and financial markets. With a track record of successful predictions, Gundlach has once again caught the attention of investors and economists with his latest forecast – a recession likely by the second quarter of 2024.

Gundlach’s prediction is based on his analysis of various economic indicators and trends, including the recent inflationary pressures, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policies, and the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy. In a recent interview, he expressed concerns about the current state of the economy and warned that a recession could be on the horizon.

The bond guru’s warning comes at a time when the stock market is at all-time highs and the global economy is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn. However, Gundlach believes that the current optimism may not be sustainable in the long run, citing the risks of inflation, rising interest rates, and the potential for a slowdown in economic growth.

Gundlach’s prediction has sparked a debate among economists and investors, with some questioning the timing and severity of his forecast. While the exact timing of a potential recession is difficult to predict, Gundlach’s track record of accurate forecasts lends credibility to his latest warning.

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Investors and businesses are paying close attention to Gundlach’s prediction, as a potential recession could have significant implications for financial markets, asset prices, and investment strategies. As such, many are re-evaluating their portfolios and risk management approaches in light of this latest forecast.

Gundlach’s warning serves as a reminder for investors to remain vigilant and consider the potential risks and uncertainties in the current economic environment. While the timing and severity of a recession are uncertain, being prepared for potential downturns and market turbulence is an essential part of sound investment planning.

As always, it is important for investors to conduct their own research and seek professional advice before making any significant investment decisions. While Gundlach’s insights are valuable, it is essential to consider a wide range of perspectives and factors when evaluating the potential impact of a recession on one’s investment portfolio.

In conclusion, Jeffrey Gundlach’s forecast of a recession by the second quarter of 2024 has sparked a debate and raised concerns among investors and economists. While the exact timing and severity of a potential economic downturn remain uncertain, it is essential for investors to remain vigilant and consider the implications of this forecast in their investment planning.

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34 Comments

  1. @lawrencefeldman462

    Jeffery is right about the status of our national debt. I am big muni bonds buyer for many years to off set my tax hit. We're going to be in a down turn soon in 24. Once rates are back to 4 to 3.67 %. Its my sell sign go forward to go to cash. Take my profits and get into emerging markets bonds

  2. @kuschinvest

    Good luck Gundlach!

  3. @BRuane-pw6xq

    This Guy said Biden got us into 2 WARS. Clearly he sees no value in defending Democracy nor supporting Israel and forgot about AFGHANISTAN. He always calls for a Recession ALWAYS.
    Every GOP President since Hoover has had a Recession ALL of THEM different weak excuse each time but ALWAYS a RECESSION ALWAYS.

  4. @fabianhegemann9911

    Interesting , a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.

  5. @jonEmontana

    You have to wonder what massive immigration because of no borders and open invite to the US does to the economy in a recession along with funding 2 wars going on 3. Can’t be a great thing.

  6. @DrKnowsMore

    The fact that the government can't stop borrowing money is not the fed's problem. The FED is supposed to act, to some degree, as a counterbalance to the government. Spending has to be control. If the government can't do that, then the FED should drive the government in the bankruptcy.

  7. @bastianrusso

    We can't ignore the potential impact on portfolios. Bonds are often considered a safe haven, and if they crumble, investors like me might scramble. I’ve been investing for 11 yrs and my $1m portfolio has never been this depleted, how i do hedge this?

  8. @HL1950

    Thank you for calling this interviewer out on the idea that a Republican in the WH would do anything to improve the deficit. They only care about the deficit when they aren't in power.

  9. @lemonace1800

    Party leaning doesn’t help, finally Gundlach comes to reality. Luv it

  10. @selenajack2036

    The media is currently barraged with a lot of economic data right now. It takes a lot to see beyond the whole ocean of news on focus on what is important, which is that no matter how low stocks go, they always bounce back. I really ignore all the news and keep investing. I recently allocated about $121k to put in the market as we anticipate a crash. Any recommendations?

  11. @generalyan7084

    It's great to see MSM welcome Peter Schiff back on!

  12. @geejaybee1970

    One issue that was left out of the dialogue is the need to raise corporate taxes and/or change the tax structure to service debt.

  13. @brianwhitehawker1756

    Is there anything like proof recession stock? I am 58 years and would like help in managing my retirement portfolio which is currently $1.25M…down from a high of $1.67M.

  14. @MrGiggity890

    This dude has literally been talking about a recession right around the corner for decades. Permabears are cringe af.

  15. @nkat519

    wait a moment! Is that the Russian flag on his chest?

  16. @tomsoltess6636

    This guy speaks the truth.

  17. @rudyg7039

    I think bill Clinton balance the budget and trump took it to another high level narrator tried to push for a republican but failed

  18. @alexgamble4718

    All the well known bond salesman are always calling out recession risks. It's makes perfect sense, it's because bond funds are easier to sell when the prospect thinks the ass is going to fall out of the economy in the next 12 months.

  19. @dt-jy1ig

    Get a Republican in the White House will save us? BOTH parties have been guilty of inflating the debt bubble. Don’t forget it was Reagan’s administration that gave rise to the phrase “deficits don’t matter”

  20. @chessdad182

    Imagine if there was a US President who had a balanced budget for not one, but the last FOUR years of his administration. Definitely an impossibility. Right? Funny I never hear his name mentioned when these right wingers discuss the deficit.

  21. @rajkc9209

    When US treasury is so deep in hole things cannot be as normal as they appear. When things start to move, unbelievable moves will happen quick.

  22. @michael-qp9xd

    Jeff saying that bond market is pricing in rate cut like 50 basis points. He disagrees and says fed not to cut. But then later he says if things turn bad then the fed to cut rates. And too adds he thinks to go into a recession so a bad thing. So this contradicts his first thinking on fed not to cut. So bond market movers are correct with thinking fed to cut. Am i not getting this contradiction right from talk here?

  23. @karlwatson1874

    He should run for president.

  24. @rudeawakening3833

    The CENTRAL BANKS GLOBALLY are stockpiling physical GOLD as we speak – and have been for the last 3 years ! Physical silver is THE most undervalued commodity on earth – the country of India last year purchased 40% of the earth’s total mining supply of SILVER for a reason !

  25. @mk-xe2cd

    This guy doesn't understand modern money theory….it states specifically that overspending causes inflation.

  26. @bradleylarge4907

    It’s about time that YF has someone on that tells the truth about our economy and government.

  27. @roc7880

    imagine your life as a climatologist predicting weather, and every day you go on TV and say something like this week it is a higher chance than last week to have a rain, and on Sunday night there is no rain as of yet, and again you go on TV and say next week I think we will see rain, and that still does not happen. how many times do we need to listen to such Cassandras before telling them STFU

  28. @dr.tetraminflakes3187

    really in 2024? you're worst then a weather channel, or a traveling Gibsy, it's not a prediction if you predict it every year a recession.

  29. @chrisi4364

    Legend as always.

  30. @montielh

    Extraordinary interview!
    We are in a recession already! In October my sales in 5 states collapsed like in February 2021…

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