CNBC’s Steve Liesman joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss the holiday season’s retail numbers, slowing consumption growth in the first half of the year and Fed officials’ determination to proceed with rate increases. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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BREAKING: Recession News
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The holiday season is often a time for retailers to shine as customers flock to their stores and websites to buy gifts for loved ones. However, December 2020 saw retail sales come closer to recession numbers than ever before.
According to the United States Census Bureau, retail sales for December 2020 only increased by 0.3%, which is the smallest increase in sales since April of 2020. This increase is also significantly lower than the 3.7% increase seen in December 2019.
One of the main reasons for this downturn in retail sales is, of course, the COVID-19 pandemic. Many consumers are struggling financially due to job losses and reduced income, which means they are less likely to spend money on non-essential items. Additionally, the pandemic has forced many retailers to close their physical stores or limit in-person shopping, which has led to a decrease in foot traffic and sales.
However, the pandemic is not the only factor contributing to this downturn in retail sales. Economic uncertainty and political turmoil have also played a role. The U.S. economy has been in a state of flux for much of the past year, with many experts predicting a recession. Additionally, the recent political turmoil surrounding the presidential election and the storming of the Capitol has left many consumers feeling uncertain about the future.
Despite these challenges, some retailers did manage to have a successful holiday season. E-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart saw record sales, as many consumers turned to online shopping in light of the pandemic. Additionally, retailers that sell essential items, like grocery stores and pharmacies, saw an increase in sales as consumers stocked up on necessities.
Looking forward, it’s unclear when retail sales will return to pre-pandemic levels. Some experts believe that the rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine and the eventual return to normalcy will lead to a rebound in sales. However, others are more skeptical, pointing to the long-term effects of the pandemic on consumer habits and the economy.
Overall, December 2020 saw retail sales come closer to recession numbers than ever before. While some retailers were able to weather the storm, others struggled to survive. As the pandemic continues to impact our daily lives and the economy, only time will tell what the future holds for the retail industry.
The market doesn’t realize that the Fed wants to open up economic slack sufficient to drive the inflation rate below its 2% target and keep it there for a while. This will ensure that the embers of inflation will be well and truly quenched.
The way I see it this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don't have any more economies to utilize to control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.
They always predict a recession every year.
People are maxing out their credit so have to stop buying. Then jobs begin to be eliminated. This cycle repeats itself. Businesses price gouge and then the economy collapses because of their greed.
Even if a non dollar-denominated asset sees no real gains during inflation that's still much better than holding cash and seeing your real purchasing power undermined. In other words, sometimes you have to chose between the lesser of two evils.
Investing in crypto now should be in every wise individuals list, in some months time you'll be ecstatic with the decision you made today….
Home prices should come down by 50%
Hard landing around the bend!
Thanks mate
Melissa's make up is kinda off today. Can't tell what it is
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time.
LETS GOOOOOO (i have puts)
Demand destruction cycle
Newsflash, the recession has been here over 9 months.
Bad new is good news. HOWEVER…the fed won't allow us to have a play date and they're going to keep things as grim sounding as they possibly can until the job is done.
This channel never disappoints in its level of dishonesty, ignorance and lying. We have been in a recession for an entire year now. This is year 2. Start telling the truth. You can lie, but you can't change the truth.
Even with the rose colored glasses number of 6% inflation, retail sales revenue was down, unadjusted for inflation. Actual retail sales, down close to 8%… that's recession where I'm from.
I expect the federal funds rate to go to 5.5 to 6%. 50,25,25,25 no pivot in 2023, rates high possibly into 2024. Best wishes ❤.
Fed is clueless
Sales down yet we are spending more.
down only 1% ? and it is a depression mood?
If December of All months was lower them expected, what you think is go be the rest of 2023. The Fed is trap, other them keep printing money until break, period. Get ready folks!!!!
Haha everyone acting as if this is unexpected. Already calling for it. Recession, no rebound this year, will be a very long drawn out recession more like a L Shape, and Deflation will be a problem throughout the year. Will be a double negative for stock prices. Do think though Tech will outperform this year but will not throughout this decade. Also Bonds this year look more attractive especially good corporates. At least how I think 2023 will be. Also I still think it is INSANE how somehow no one can come out and say the Recession started a YEAR ago. I see this stuff and the contraction started Jan 2022. Last year was not rosy by any means..
Bullard doesnt even have voting power why he talking
Exaggerating the downturn because they want the fed to stop. Funny.
During the pandemic companies saw record profits…. Maybe if companies stopped price gouging Americans we wouldn't be in this position.
But S&P EPS will go up according to analysts. LOL