AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver says a four per cent increase in the cash rate, pushing mortgage payments to record levels, would elevate recession odds to 50/50.
“At the moment, I think it’s a close call, but if you get above four per cent, then yes, I would be very worried about a recession,” Mr Oliver told Sky News Australia….(read more)
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Write an article about ‘It’s a close call’: Chief economist discusses the risk of recession in English
We were gone before the so called pandemic .But alas some fool threw a borrowed Trillion in and masked it over for a while. The fairy tale has ended–buckle up.
What no-one is saying is everyone else knows Australia is in a recession. The man on the street knows. Labor are simply using every excuse in the book to hide the fact they are causing a recession – and will use all sorts of weird definitions and terms – you would never think of – to make up economic indicators – to say Australia is not in recession. And they would be using the crazy terms the U.S. Democrats use to describe they are not in a recession.
Ready for it. Brace your selves for this one: QUOTE FROM THE "WHITE HOUSE" HOW DO ECONOMISTS DETERMINE WHETHER THE ECONOMY IS IN A RECESSION.
"THE OFFICIAL SCOREKEEPER DEFINES A RECESSION AS –
A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY THAT IS SPREAD ACROSS THE ECONOMY AND THAT LASTS MORE THEN A FEW MONTHS. THE VARIABLES THE COMMITTEE TYPICALLY TRACKS INCLUDE REAL PERSONAL INCOME MINUS GOVERNMENT TRANSFERS – EMPLOYMENT – VARIOUS FORMS OF REAL CONSUMER SPENDING, AND INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION.
NOTABLY, THERE ARE NO FIXED RULES OR THRESHOLDS THAT TRIGGER A DETERMINATION OF DECLINE, ALTHOUGH THE COMMITTEE DOES NOTE THAT IN RECENT DECADES, THEY HAVE GIVEN MORE WEIGHT TO REAL PERSONAL INCOMES LESS TRANSFERS AND PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT.
THE COMMITTEE DOES NOT DIRECTLY CONSIDER INFLATION , HOWEVER IT IS EMBEDDED IN THE REAL INCOME AND SPENDING VARIABLES IT TRACKS. FINALLY THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS NOT ON THE COMMITTEE'S LIST. RECESSION PROBABILITIES ARE NEVER ZERO, BUT TRENDS IN THE DATA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THIS YEAR USED TO DETERMINE A RECESSION ARE NOT INDICATING A DOWNTURN.
If you can read that and understand it – just a few lines – where every indicator that tells you the economy is in recession – you just ignore.
For some businesses, the recession is already here.
How can Australia be in Debt when we have our own system in place to fix any debt in any state of Australia
Commonwealth constitution 1900 -1901
Under Section 51 – 4, 12 and 13 – your Prime Minister AND your Parliament have the duty – and the legal power – to solve the so called $$ crisis in only a few weeks with no interest and no debt. Governments, and governments alone, not the Banks, the Government have the legitimate power to issue the nation's money (or credit) to represent the real wealth of the Nation.
Australia has to pay off a percentage of the US debt
Its a small change, yes. But IT IS ALMOST 7%. That is not good.
Many argue, we are already there. CPI is a sham. How about mandating saving account interest rate rises, in proportion to mortgage rates? Before the inevitable bank runs on unincentivized capital holdings bleeding into alternate stores of wealth for better perceived security. But that will cut into banks bottom lines……