The risk of a recession in the near future has increased moderately, according to Roger Ferguson, the CEO of TIAA and former Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve. In a recent interview, Ferguson expressed concerns about the current economic environment and the potential for a downturn in the coming months.
Ferguson cited several factors that have contributed to the increased risk of recession. These include slowing global growth, trade tensions between the United States and China, and uncertainty surrounding Brexit and other geopolitical events. Additionally, he noted that the yield curve has inverted, with long-term interest rates falling below short-term rates, which historically has been a precursor to a recession.
While Ferguson emphasized that the likelihood of a recession is still relatively low, he cautioned that policymakers and investors should not dismiss the possibility. He stressed the importance of being prepared for a potential downturn and taking steps to mitigate the impact on the economy.
Ferguson also highlighted the role of the Federal Reserve in managing the economy and addressing risks of recession. He noted that the Fed has already taken steps to lower interest rates in response to the slowdown in global growth and uncertainties in the market. However, he cautioned that monetary policy alone may not be enough to prevent a recession and that fiscal stimulus and other measures may be necessary.
In conclusion, Roger Ferguson’s assessment of the current economic landscape suggests that the risk of recession has increased moderately. While the likelihood of a downturn is still relatively low, it is important for policymakers and investors to be vigilant and prepared for a potential economic slowdown. By taking proactive measures to address risks and uncertainties, we can help to mitigate the impact of a recession and ensure a more stable and resilient economy.
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All economic recessions are caused after a grand theft (money counterfeiting). The cycle repeats itself over and over until the counterfeiters own the majority of all produced wealth.
It’s math. It’s not complicated.
We've been in a recession..