Ronald Peter-Stoeferle, Fund Manager of Incrementum and author of the “In Gold We Trust” Report, discusses the threats to the economy, and which asset classes are likely to outperform during a recession.
*This video was recorded on September 5, 2023
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*This video is not financial advice. The channel is not responsible for the performance of sponsors and affiliates.
0:00 – Intro
1:20 – Recession outlook
5:15 – Inflation heatmap
10:30 – “People couldn’t care less about gold”
16:00 – “Everything crash”
23:27 – Commodities
29:40 – Gold price valuation
32:00 – Central bank gold buying
#investing #economy #recession…(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
The Case for Recession by Year-End and the ‘Everything Crash’ by Ronald Stoeferle
As the world grapples with the economic fallout of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, renowned economist Ronald Stoeferle has outlined a compelling case for a looming recession and the potential for an ‘everything crash’ by year-end. Stoeferle, known for his accurate predictions in previous market downturns, presents a sobering argument that calls for caution and preparedness among investors and policymakers alike.
Stoeferle believes that the current global economic conditions, exacerbated by the pandemic, have set the stage for a perfect storm. He highlights several key factors that contribute to his hypothesis. Firstly, the unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus injected into economies worldwide has generated a false sense of security and a bloated asset bubble. This artificially inflated market, he argues, is unsustainable and vulnerable to rapid deflation.
Furthermore, Stoeferle points to the mounting corporate debt levels, which have ballooned over the years, as a significant concern. The lockdowns and disruptions caused by the pandemic have severely impacted businesses, leading to increased borrowing to survive. This has created a ticking time bomb that could detonate once the economy starts to falter. A surge in defaults and bankruptcies would not only result in widespread financial instability but also have a profound impact on consumer confidence and spending.
Another factor that Stoeferle emphasizes is the lingering uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the progress made in terms of vaccine distribution and reopening economies, new variants and potential future waves of infections still pose a significant threat. This ongoing uncertainty is likely to dampen consumer sentiment, impede economic recovery, and further exacerbate the impending recession.
Stoeferle warns that as the Federal Reserve and central banks worldwide continue to pump liquidity into the system, they are merely delaying the inevitable crash. The low-interest-rate environment, coupled with excessive liquidity, distorts market dynamics and encourages risk-taking behavior. This, in turn, fuels asset bubbles and increases the vulnerability of the financial system.
To prepare for the potential ‘everything crash’ and the subsequent recession, Stoeferle suggests that investors diversify their portfolios and reduce exposure to high-risk assets. He advises allocating funds to defensive assets such as gold and cash, as they tend to perform well during periods of economic turmoil. Stoeferle also urges policymakers to exercise prudence in their monetary and fiscal policies, avoiding excessive interventions that may exacerbate the crisis.
While some may argue that Stoeferle’s predictions are overly pessimistic and speculative, his track record should not be dismissed lightly. His accurate forecasts during previous economic downturns, such as the global financial crisis of 2008, lend credibility to his analysis. Moreover, a growing number of economists and market analysts share similar concerns about the current economic outlook, further bolstering Stoeferle’s case.
In conclusion, Ronald Stoeferle’s case for a recession by year-end and an ‘everything crash’ is thought-provoking and should not be taken lightly. The unprecedented levels of stimulus, mounting debt burdens, lingering pandemic uncertainties, and artificial market dynamics all contribute to a potential economic downturn. Investors and policymakers would be wise to heed Stoeferle’s warnings and take proactive measures to protect themselves and navigate these uncharted waters.
What are the best assets to hold during a recession? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW RONALD PETER-STOEFERLE:
Incrementum: http://www.incrementum.li/en
Twitter (@RonStoeferle): https://twitter.com/RonStoeferle
Linkedin: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ronaldstoeferle/
In Gold We Trust Report 2023: https://ingoldwetrust.report/download/26952/&tmstv=1683209345?lang=en
It is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won't simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
Mike Maloney, is that you?
Interesting how all of the experts seem to miss the gold elephant in the room. The world is at war, with the current PTB, WEF/WHO types vs the rest. It is even more out in the open in the USSA, w the leading candidate being threatened w life in prison and the current "POTUS" about to be impeached. These are the conditions in which gold goes much higher.
This channel should be called “the bear show”
David the recession has already started for a ton of people… so maybe you should identify the difference between a "recession" that impacts Wall Street and not the actual recession that has been happening in the real world for some time now.
And when you think about the stock market
vsthe economy – consider the number of Americans who don't own stocks and could care less about the direction of the stock market.I get that your channel is not for The People, but for The Street… so (I guess) there’s that.
Thank you. I too have been early… a year and a half early. I am 40k tripple leverage short right here and continue to add to that. Recession… oh no my friends I think it will be way way worse than that. I am calling a Depression worse than the "Great Depression" but unlike most I have put my money where my mouth is (again just way early). 40k is a lot of money for me folks. It's going to get very very bad and this is going off of the numbers being printed which almost all are lies. Unemployment numbers are a great example. They have been revised the last 12 times to the upside… which means they missed. Almost no one is talking about this. If they are lying about this than do you think they are lying about … I don't know… GDP, CPI, PPI etc. I would say yes. Even with the fake numbers the math doesn't work. If you use the "real" numbes… its gonna get really bad.
DropComment &TapLike 4Als
“ Better to be a year early – than a day late “ – a wise economist …
Great interview David !
Such an awesome guest , who actually explains “ why “ he invests like he does using past history but also taking today’s geopolitical perspective in his detailed analysis .
David, Please keep your charts up longer. The short glimpse may be fine for some people, but for me it is frustrating to begin to understand the chart only to have it dissapear.
Great information
David, can you do a summary of all your interview so far in 2023 and see how many bulls vs bears. By the end of the year, we do a comparison of the result. Not judging though…
Excellent interview and a new perspective of the market/ gold. In David we trust….
Ronnie, what official entity in government or banking will be announcing a recession? I agree we can discuss tha data until we’re blue in the face, but until an official announcement comes we evidently don’t have a recession. Finally, in the U.S. we’ve already embraced the redefining of most things, the economy is no different.
"this is the point when you should aggressively start buying silver" "but we're not there yet" Haha! Which is it Ron?
After 14 minutes I gave up. This guest uses double the amount of words to say nothing useful. Just same shit I heard milion times in jig jag format. You know, you know…
Great Channel David : IMO the content is too bullish , perhaps research content that includes more fear and doubt to help motivate sellers to complete their good work?
You can't trust this guy, He's a gold bug, they're always pro gold and anti anything else.
https://youtu.be/IWbCZ2eYr1M?si=E4lK1pGcLkFeOm5R
You should introduce the guests and have them say who they are. This guy could be anyone. Sounds like a j** hunter. Also when your hair runs away just shave it.
Thanks dude! for keeping us financially Educated! Regardless of how Bad it gets or the economy, I still make over $22,000 every single week
Every time he says UM take a drink.
Gold and market simultaneously was predicted by David Hunter. That's a good question (why) for him.
Um, a, Um, Uh, Um Uh, Um, Um, a, Um, a, Um, Uh, Um Uh, Um, Um, a, Um, Um, over 200 times!
Great take on commodities. His logic makes sense, but I do wonder if his timeline for reinflation is a little early. Does anyone have any historical data on this or theory?
INFLATION ACT IS KICKN IN MORE INFLATION ! DUH !
ITS CALLED SOCIALISM ! CLOWN !
It’s just a guess, nobody can really predict when the market crash. I heard the crash news since last yr
108000 way to go
So…. gold right?
I like stofle.
At the very least, I now grasp the concept of leverage. Creating wealth and financial freedom isn't as tough as many people believe. Building wealth and remaining financially stable indefinitely is a lot easier with the appropriate information.
Participating in financial programs and products is the only true approach to make a high income and remain affluent indefinitely.
Another great show David. Can you bring on a guest who can do a deep dive on Quantitative tightening (QT), and QTs impacts on inflation and the coming recession?
In a debt based financialised economy, that wants to end the efficiency of global trade, what do you expect? Higher prices, more interest costs, higher inflation and reduction in purchasing power. The advantage built over a century will not vanish overnight. But market only cares about trajectory of the projectile. This one is headed home. Gold will shine. It can't be faked. It can't be manipulated forever
DAVID LIN IS AN EXCELLANT HOST, HUMBLE AND INTELLIGENT.
KITCO WAS NOT GOOD enough for him…
Bb, the left coast
Thanks David
Everything will crash except the gold products he sells? Rofl
I too have been early to call the recession, every time.
Markets are about to pump hard; there will be no official recession
Great stuff, thanks again!
Great videos, would be nice to have the charts displayed longer to understand better with a mini video in one of the corners like Teams/Zoom. Charts are better than the selfies videos…otherwise it's just better to listen to as a podcast. Hope this is insightful..great work!