https://external-preview.redd.it/wF8o2KYyBa1_J35F-Xg9Gxjz7SVebu9nKYphAHaR3xQ.png?auto=webp&s=5118ca2743d693c404cc7cd72ad0af91e9e1294d
We now have 3 large gaps above us and the Wednesday drop filled the 3800 level gap formed back in July, Friday drop almost touched the June low.
The drop should stop and the market should go sideways from here a bit or even bounce higher a bit.
The next CPI number is coming out on October 13, so if the market keeps going sideways, it will hit the secondary downtrend line at around the same time.
I personally think the market should take a pause [based on the VIX indices data](https://alphapursuits.com/almost-hit-the-bottom-again-now-what-vix-spx-review-9-18-2022/) as well as the TA of SPX.
What do you think? Is this the bottom?
https://preview.redd.it/skpdjx7ifwp91.png?width=1158&format=png&auto=webp&s=e75697e7f2b2d082ad86185c9e994b4c8876db06
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All I know I got lot of dip buying ahead of me.
I’m feeling a dead cat bounce next week
Yes, but wsb is 90% filled with gay bears at this point (should already be an indicator to you that we’re at or near a bottom) and they bought puts so only want confirmation bias
My breakdown based on 5 minutes of thought while taking a dump:
10% chance we’ve already hit the bottom
15% chance pre-covid high of 3380 is the bottom
45% chance 3000 is the bottom
25% chance 2400 is the bottom
5% chance this is the end of the fiat economy
Guys. As long as the Fed continues to raise interest rates, the bottom is not in. STOP BUYING. Earnings collapse is imminent and the housing market is starting to roll over. You think stocks are gonna stop here? Jesus, people.
This sub only thinks straight up or straight down. Regards.
• The Stock Market always does what it should do, but not aways when.
If we don’t buy below $360 then you are pussy.
Sorry, the fun has just begun
Lol I love all the certain traders on this post. How are y’all not already rich from knowing what the market will do.
Based on all the bearish sentiment in these comments, SPY calls are gonna print for the next couple weeks. Then Oct CPI will be released, and the market will dip back to these levels. Midterms will pass and we’re gonna drill to the center of the earth.
It’s A low. I don’t think it’s THE low
You need more data to know if it’s a higher low. You’re trying to draw a conclusion about something that’s still happening.
You’re calling the bottom?? What you saw last week were rookie numbers. You’re in for a ride cause clearly you haven’t seen a thing! 
Don’t buy yet we’re still a long ways from target rate. I’m gonna wait till unemployment starts to kick in. They’ll back track when that happens 100%.
Honest question: how can we be at the bottom if we haven’t even officially entered the recession yet? I mean, forget what Biden says. The media and every major financial prognosticator is saying that we are heading towards a recession but we haven’t yet entered it and felt the affects of it. So, once we actually enter it and employment drops and sales slump and real estate drops, won’t equity prices continue to go down? How can people think this is the bottom if there’s still so much tightening and bad news ahead of us?
Going to assume it’s the bottom or close to it until after elections, considering all the financial bigwigs are currently aligned with the Democrats.
Idk I think it’s gonna go all the way down and test. Not only that I think it’ll break. A lot of numbers coming out this week that should show weakness in the economy. A lot of people including Powell speaking this week from the fed. I think we test 369-373 as a part of this relief bounce. Then we go down test 362 and break to new lows. Not to mention the dollar is really strong and rising which isn’t a good sign for liquidities.
It feels pretty close to the bottom, in any case I’m going to keep DCAing and sit back and wait.
Nuclear war could def bring this market down more
So the market should pause because of the double bottom and to fill gaps before drilling?
A lot of margin still needs to come out.
This is not the botton. I think S&P500 index will fall to 2900 to 3100 range. There might be short term recoveries in between though. But this will be very hard to time.
3400 is what I see with some gap fill.
Could be.
Agree with temporary bottom for around 4 days.
I think we are f*cked. Just look at those yields…
No way we are at the bottom. The fed is hiking rates and unemployment numbers need to increase. There will be bear market rallies here and there but the true bottom will come in before the fed pivots. Don’t fight the fed and plan accordingly.
If you’re getting antsy, commit 5% of your funds. See how that goes. If bad, wait another month. If good, try again. Something like that.
Oh you’re funny, I like your jokes. SPY bottom for this year is far far from reached.
Indeed
Wait no, maybe.
No it’s not
Or yes
Or maybe we stay sideways ?
Who the fuck knows
If last friday was the last trading day of the month I might agree, but I held my highly leveraged inverse positions because it wasn’t the end of the month and we still have lots of options in play.
VIX is a good start. Watch $VVIX. It’s Volatility^2’d. Tracks the rate of change of implied movements. You’re looking for VIX to start a downtrend; but if VVIX continues to rise; so will VIX… We haven’t seen any real pain…
Check $VOLI and $TDEX too, basically tracks the tail options.
Personally, I like VIX – Voli to find the residual non tail of Volatility…
Long story short.
Nobody’s reaching for DEEP OTM puts yet. Permabears haven’t started frothing at the mouth just yet. Permabulls still think there’s a short term recovery.
Volatility is only just getting started