I want to throw what is a lot of money to me in an aggressive long-term play against the value of commercial real estate. My target are investments in offices and buildings in downtown areas.
Proof of my investment will be provided in a reply to this or a new post if you can help me figure it out.
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Invest in cardboard boxes.
I like this as an idea.
The problem is, the entire ‘system’ will move heaven & earth to avoid it – as least here in the UK where so much personal prosperity is dependent on realty only going up.
the biggest threat is working from home, and the UK government have already spoken a couple of times about getting back to the office, post Covid (in the name of protecting small retail, which is BS)
i’m sure you are already onto this, but basically :
– if people work from home, the requirement for city centre footprint for business is reduced.
– corps will have absolutely no hesitation in reducing their office space, getting the cost off their balance sheet
– this will result is a large oversupply of space, driving commercial prices down.
– because people no longer need to live a commutable distance from the city, there is a huge knock on effect for domestic real estate. who needs to pay a premium to live near the office ? so…
– house prices crash, landlords (with risings interest rates) are double fucked, and since buy-to-let is a major source of private pensions, they would be destitute in old age
practically speaking , working from home could bring the economy down. not to its knees, but face down in the dirt, and I fully expect conversation between government and major corps to have taken place already on this subject.
so, finding solid way to short commercial real estate sound like a jolly decent idea to me.
Check out the ticker DRV – I’ve made some sweet returns from this lately
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Puts on MMI. Their revenue depends on massive volume of commercial real state deals
$EWRE Puts,
They are the one of the only real estate etfs with significant commerical real estate exposure, all the others are mostly dominated by american tower/telecom infra companies.
>That sounds like a very risky investment, but if you’re confident in your ability to pick winners then more power to you. I would recommend doing plenty of research before putting any money down, and as always, remember to diversify your portfolio to mitigate risk. Good luck!
Short $O
DRV, REIT, you’d have to short Zillow or Redfin individually.
Why commercial specifically and not residential?