Based on many questions I have seen surrounding recessions and their impact on risk assets like #SPX, I thought we could spend some time looking at historical #recession statistics. In this video we look at things like the difference between when a recession starts and when it is declared, as well as when the #SPX tends to bottom with respect to the declaration of the recession.
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Recessions are a common phenomenon in modern economic history. A recession is defined as a period of time when the economy experiences a decline in output or a negative growth rate. In simple terms, it is a period of economic contraction that is characterized by widespread job losses, reduction in production, and low levels of investment and spending.
Recession statistics help us understand the severity and duration of recessions. These statistics are collected and analyzed by economists and policymakers to formulate strategies to minimize the adverse effects of recessions on the economy.
One of the most commonly used metrics to measure economic growth is the GDP (Gross Domestic Product). The GDP is the total value of goods and services produced in a country within a specific period of time. During a recession, the GDP falls below its trend level, indicating a decline in economic activity.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is the official organization responsible for declaring when a recession starts and ends in the United States. According to the NBER, the most recent recession in the US started in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009. During this period, the US GDP fell by 4.3% in real terms, and the unemployment rate rose to 9.5% by June 2009.
Another common recession statistic is the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment. During a recession, the unemployment rate tends to increase as businesses lay off workers to cut costs.
The unemployment rate in the US peaked at 10% in October 2009 during the Great Recession. However, it gradually declined in the following years and reached a low of 3.5% in February 2020. With the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, the unemployment rate skyrocketed to 14.8% in April 2020, the highest rate since the Great Depression.
In addition to GDP and unemployment rate, other recession statistics such as consumer spending, stock market performance, and inflation rates are also monitored closely during recessions.
In conclusion, recession statistics are an important tool for analyzing and responding to economic decline. By understanding the patterns and trends of recessions, policymakers can take necessary steps to mitigate the impact of recessions on the economy and people’s lives.
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Please more macro videos, so much good info here
So wot will happen to crypto if recession hits , will it act as anti inflation asset like gold or will go down along with nasdaq and s&p … for crypto we don’t have too much of historic data also .. so wots ur take on this. Tnx in advance
Can you look into the alleged changing definition of unemployment rate? Has it been consistent or is the graph completely inaccurate?
why is the s&p low not in october 2002 for the 2001 recession?
I didn't realize they can call recessions by month (instead of by quarter). For example recession start is feb or recession end is nov
Absolutely love this video! Super duper insightful! I definitely share this with my crypto group. We’ll be ready for these measurable indicators! Thank you Ben!!!
Ben helps you think….doesn’t tel you what to think. Massive difference from other YouTubers
LETS GO MUCH LOVE BIG BEN❤️❤️❤️
You and MeetKevin should do a collaboration called The Odd Couple because you’re so opposite but there’s just enough in common
SPX is going to 2200 Ben. you know that
So we don't know what's going to happen. Thanks!
Thank you! Do you think we will see a recession!
As times go by, its more and more apparent that you are one of the best financial educators on Youtube. I really appreciate your unbiased analyses and the fact that you make it clear, that nobody could predict the future and it is best to be prepared for all of the outlined scenarios. Thanks a lot Ben!
Hey Ben,
Great insights and data. Keep it up.
If you are providing this much information with free Youtube video, I am starting to wonder what would your premium content look like. !!
Sorry, but those tiers are unaffordable for me right now. 🙁
This channel is the best on YouTube. Not only you get quality content but also no stupid open mouth thumbnails and no ads!!! Thank you
Thank you for your work Ben.
Ben, you are the best financial/economic style channel on Youtube I’ve seen. No BS, and pure facts. No clickbait either. Thanks for the videos
We need a video for bitcoin behavior relative to economic uncertainty / recessions
Hello Ben. I'd love for you to invite Francois Trahan, the macro economist phenom of WallStreet, and to talk about the current market. You are both scolars of statistics, and I think we could all greatly enjoy it. Thanks for your video as always
Ben, we are only here because we LIKE boring videos
Great data analysis Ben! Thanks again and again for these info! We are learning from you