Strategist dismisses market consensus of 5% inflation in 2023 as ‘unjustifiably optimistic’

by | Jul 22, 2023 | Invest During Inflation | 12 comments

Strategist dismisses market consensus of 5% inflation in 2023 as ‘unjustifiably optimistic’




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Inflation: Market Consensus for 5% in 2023 is ‘Mindlessly Optimistic,’ Strategist Says

Inflation has become a hot topic of discussion as economies around the world grapple with the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. While many experts and market analysts have projected a rise in inflation in the coming years, one strategist has recently argued that the market consensus of 5% inflation by 2023 is “mindlessly optimistic.”

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It is undeniable that the pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions to global supply chains, resulting in price fluctuations and shortages across various sectors. Additionally, expansive fiscal and monetary policies implemented by governments worldwide to stimulate economic recovery have injected vast amounts of liquidity into the system.

These factors, coupled with pent-up consumer demand as lockdown restrictions ease, have led many to believe that higher inflation is on the horizon. However, not everyone shares this sentiment.

According to the contrarian strategist in question, the current market consensus fails to consider several crucial factors. Firstly, he argues that the global economy is still far from fully recovering from the pandemic’s impact. Ongoing uncertainties surrounding the virus, new variants, and vaccination efforts continue to create volatility and hinder a complete restoration of normalcy.

Moreover, the strategist points out that central banks maintain a mandate to keep inflation in check. Despite the unprecedented monetary stimulus witnessed over the past year, central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, have remained committed to their inflation targets and have pledged to undertake necessary measures to prevent inflation from spiraling out of control.

Additionally, long-term structural forces that suppress inflation, such as technology advancements and globalization, are still at play. The strategist argues that these deflationary pressures could offset any short-term inflationary spikes resulting from supply chain disruptions or government stimulus programs.

Furthermore, the strategist raises concerns over the fragility of the current recovery. He suggests that premature tightening of monetary policy in an attempt to combat inflation could derail the economic rebound. A premature withdrawal of stimulus measures could risk plunging the economy back into a recession, worsening unemployment rates, and further exacerbating social inequalities.

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However, it is essential to acknowledge that the strategist’s viewpoint goes against the grain of current market sentiment. Many investors are positioning themselves for an inflationary environment, diversifying their portfolios to include assets that historically perform well during periods of rising prices, such as commodities, real estate, or inflation-protected bonds.

Nevertheless, it is crucial to consider multiple perspectives when evaluating the future trajectory of inflation. As the global economy navigates uncharted territory in the post-pandemic era, economists, policymakers, and investors must remain open to diverse viewpoints and continuously reassess their strategies in light of new information.

In conclusion, while the market consensus anticipates a 5% inflation rate by 2023, a contrarian strategist believes this outlook is “mindlessly optimistic.” With ongoing uncertainties, central bank actions, deflationary forces, and the fragility of the economic recovery, the path of inflation remains uncertain. As investors and policymakers, it is essential to analyze multiple perspectives and remain vigilant to adapt to changing dynamics in the global economy.

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12 Comments

  1. David Brooks

    Such market uncertainties are the reason I don’t base my market judgements and decisions on rumors and here-says, got the best of me 2020 and had me holding worthless position in the market, I had to revamp my entire portfolio through the aid of an advisor, before I started seeing any significant results happens in my portfolio, been using the same advisor and I’ve scaled up 750k within 2 years, whether a bullish or down market, both makes for good profit, it all depends on where you’re looking..

  2. Deesus

    Inflation MIGHT get to 5% by eoy.

  3. phmountaindog

    During the boom years of the 1990 – 2000's interest rates were between 4% and 6% right up until the financial crisis for 2008. Then the money printing presses were rolled out and the markets went into a bonanza of cheap money at savers expense. Thing that makes me laugh about this buy he want lower inflation and interest rates, but it's the years of printing money that is inflationary and to tackle inflation we need higher interest rates. The purchasing power of our money is decreasing becaause of inflation

    Bring on higher interest rates, another 2% would be very nice, ideally i'd like to see my cash at least keep up with inflation

  4. Vini I

    Import Russian Oil the problem will be solved,no need to suffer like this,otherwise U have Illegal lending, Inflation & the list goes on & on…………

  5. Richard lee yang

    It is natural to see so many investors panicking in the midst of a deteriorating bear market, but it is also important to note that the market situation is nothing new in the crypto world. Several factors are currently driving negative sentiment in the stock and crypto markets, including inflation, an unstable stock market, rising interest rates, and recession fears. As a result, bitcoin has fallen significantly from its all-time high, dropping below several key technical levels.

    As a crypto investor, the current situation may seem grim. However, there are several proven, expert-suggested investment strategies that can help you weather the current crypto storm. In 2 weeks of shorting and trading with signals directly from Williams, I was able to accumulate 11 btc despite the state of the market.

    Best Regards.

  6. Ben Lawrence

    The Fed is no doubt at fault when they were too slow in controlling inflation in the beginning and now they are trying to do extreme catchup. The pandemic, the supply chain issues, and the Ukraine war all contribute to this perfect storm of brewing inflation. Don't forget the big spike in housing prices, that's another reason the Fed is having a hard time-fighting inflation. All in all, cash in king now and milk that high savings rate if you got the cash. Good times will only last so long and bad times will fade. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation just trades long term more than ever, I have made over 587k from day trading with FLOYD JOHNSON in a few weeks.

  7. conservative libertarian

    The capitalist demons and their bourgeoise state will never reduce 'inflation', or rather the worker's cost of living.

    The workers must RISE UP

  8. Corey Todd

    According to the owner of the company I work for, this single quarter has been more profitable than the last 6 combined, all thanks to "inflation." Which is to say, he heard there was inflation and jacked our prices by 25%, then blamed inflation. I have to assume this is not uncommon.

  9. Bring The Rain

    The guy really doesn't know about the Russo-Ukranian war. That northern border has become a fortress since Russia withdrew in May. It is heavily fortified.

  10. superblonde

    Stagflation is coming for sure..

  11. salamnder1

    This guy is spot on!!!

  12. YesTube

    10% please. Bring it.

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