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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Wells Fargo was the first to warn that the “housing market is headed back to a 1980s-style recession.” However, even though Wells Fargo believes that the housing market could enter a “Recession” – that doesn’t mean lower prices – in fact, to them, it means the opposite.
They say, because fewer sellers are listing their homes, “home prices will continue to appreciate at a slightly slower pace because of underlying demand and tight supply, rising 1.8% by the end of this year, as tracked by Case-Shiller, and 2.5% in 2024. In 2025, Wells Fargo forecasts home prices will rise 4.4%.”
On the other hand, Morgan Stanley believes that housing will start to get more affordable throughout 2024, saying: “We expect home sales to be weak in the first half of next year, but activity should pick up in the second half and further into 2025, and that’s primarily because affordability will improve.”
They also expect that the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates in mid-2024, which – will prompt more sellers to list, and more buyers to obtain a slightly more affordable mortgage. They anticipate rates to be as low as 0.4% by late 2025 – meaning, according to them – we’ll be back near a 0% interest rate policy in just 2 more years.
The chief economist of Realtor.com also agrees with the fact that affordability will only improve from here, noting that ‘Fannie Mae, the Mortgage Bankers Association and the National Association of Realtors all predict that the 30-year mortgage rate will fall to below 7% in the second half of 2024.’
However, the downside is that – regardless of who you ask – nearly everyone unanimously believes that housing prices are unlikely to see much of a decline in the near future, at least until home sellers outnumber home buyers – which, right now – isn’t anywhere close to happening.
According to the CEO of Redfin, the ”only good thing right now about the US housing market is that it can’t get much worse from here” in terms of low inventory, high mortgage rates, and low sales – but only time will tell if these aspects improve.
At this point, it’s said that – in order for affordability to fall back to “normal” levels – one of three things needs to happen: “Either the 30-year mortgage rate needs to fall by 4.4 percentage points, the median household income needs to rise by 62%, or home prices need to fall by 38%.”
Although, keep in mind that t’s reported, of the homes sold in October, “28% went above the listing price, which suggests there was still a bidding war among would-be buyers.”
Personally, I tend to think that most of these real estate predictions are totally random guesses (and, inevitably, a few of them will be right) but, if you were to ask me to give a guess, I’d say rates hang higher than people expect for the next year, I’m guessing they’re not going to go down as much as people think and over the next few years, the housing market will slowly begin to normalize, but – it could take a long time.
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It’s Here: The Reverse Housing Crash Of 2024
After years of soaring real estate prices, the housing market is finally experiencing a major downturn. But this time, it’s not the typical crash that we’ve come to expect. Instead, it’s a reverse housing crash – a phenomenon that has left many experts scratching their heads.
The reverse housing crash of 2024 has taken the real estate industry by surprise, as home prices have suddenly plummeted, leaving homeowners and investors in a state of panic. This unexpected turn of events has left many wondering what exactly has caused this reverse crash, and what the implications are for the housing market as a whole.
One of the major factors contributing to the reverse housing crash is the oversaturation of the market. For years, developers and builders have been churning out new homes at a rapid pace, flooding the market with inventory. As a result, demand for housing has decreased, causing prices to drop.
Another contributing factor is the changing demographic of homebuyers. Millennials, who make up the largest segment of the homebuying population, are facing financial constraints that previous generations did not. With high levels of student loan debt and stagnant wage growth, many millennials are unable to afford the high cost of homeownership, leading to a decrease in demand for housing.
Additionally, the COVID-19 pandemic has had a lasting impact on the housing market. The shift to remote work has led many individuals to reevaluate their living situations, with many opting to move away from urban centers in search of more affordable housing options. This migration out of cities has further contributed to the decrease in demand for housing in certain areas.
So, what does this reverse housing crash mean for homeowners and investors? While it may seem like doom and gloom for those looking to sell their properties, there is a silver lining to the situation. For potential homebuyers, the decrease in prices means that there are greater opportunities to purchase a home at a more affordable rate. This could potentially open the door for individuals who were previously priced out of the market to finally achieve homeownership.
For investors, the reverse housing crash presents an opportunity to purchase properties at a lower cost and potentially turn a profit as the market stabilizes and rebounds. However, it’s important to exercise caution and conduct thorough research before diving into any investment opportunities.
As for the long-term implications of the reverse housing crash, it’s difficult to predict how the market will ultimately unfold. The situation is still evolving, and it’s unclear how long the downward trend will last. However, one thing is for certain – the real estate landscape is undergoing a significant shift, and industry professionals will need to adapt to these changes in order to navigate the new housing market terrain.
In conclusion, the reverse housing crash of 2024 has taken the real estate world by storm, leaving many individuals feeling uncertain about the future. While it may be a challenging time for homeowners and investors, there are also opportunities to be found in the midst of the chaos. As the market continues to adjust and evolve, it will be crucial for industry leaders to stay informed and proactive in order to make the most of the current situation.
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Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16fSKHvn1fy7v09OW_FfrB6azqWGqI2nV4s6d2JGRXXQ/edit?usp=sharing
As New Year approaches, the home I purchased in 2023 has appreciated by $60,000 since my acquisition. However, the downside is the diminishing value of the dollar. I am currently contemplating strategies to reinvest $300,000 in the real estate market.
Very valuable information, thanks Graham
I am from Spain, my friend in Texas referred me to this channel you make a lot of sense but I do not understand anything until she referred me to a financial consultant in USA that help me to craft my portfolio and over a year we have been working together making consistent profit enough to get me a new apartment and care for family.
Moved to Vegas over the summer and I was thinking it be crazy if I just ran into Graham and what do you know I walk in this morning and there you are. It was cool to actually meet you, keep up the work!
Negative x negative = positive
Remember they will tell you opposite to secure all your money before it sinks so never believe when they say it’s doing good
The US economy added 199,000 jobs in November, an uptick from the previous month as striking auto workers and Hollywood actors came back to the workforce.
The unemployment rate was 3.7% down from 3.9% in October.
I am a realtor and just sold a home in Vegas. List price 799k. Sold for 780k. Appraised for 785k. Rate was 7.75
Imagine Graham not pronouncing every letter in every word he says.
0.4% by 2025?!?
Who is buying a house when the home affordability idex is at an all time low. This report is to trick the market.
Click bet.
I would like to see one of you real estate. People actually talk about the truth just one of you. How about the fact that half of the country is empty homes. The boomers are dying off at an accelerated rate they owned all the homes in the country.
Boo to your commercial part way through the video
You are the best finance channel period. Thank you and great work
What about home insurance going up by 45% this year alone?
I think they banks need to pay back the bailout money they got from giving out so many risky loans.
They got tax free money that I feel should be paid back.
I will forever be grateful to you Mrs Victoria Wiezorek. You have changed my entire life, I will continue to preach your name for the world to hear. You saved me from huge financial debt with what little I had. Thank you Mrs Victoria Wiezorek.
Sorry,but would you help please,honestly i make mistaked.i use my money family,for gambling, i swear for god to do not repeat again,can you tranfer money for 2million for me,to my wife and my childrens,i need that for my family's,pls help me
Thank you for this video. It's really a waiting game at this point. I'm 25, living at home, and have increased my income by 50% in the last two months. I'm just saving up until I'm ready to buy something and it makes sense for me.
How do you figure that accounting for inflation makes sense? The increasing home values is a huge driver of the inflation to begin with.
I think higher for longer. A 5% mortgage seems like normalization to me.
Of course, I had a 15% mortgage in 1982. Refinanced again and again to get out of it.
500 years ago everyone believed and lived by the concept of a flat earth,,, and they survived, so is today, with the financial markets, there will always be someone advising you that the earth is flat and the reasons why you should or shouldn’t buy! Whatever you do, just know, be in it for the long run, markets go up and they go down, that’s how they survive and so will you,,, sellers of anything will always advise you on how you need to give them their pay, your money, (commissions) so be smart, invest for the long run, it has never once failed!!!!’❤️