The $22 billion pension shortfall in Oregon: Unraveling the causes

by | Sep 14, 2023 | Retirement Pension | 5 comments




The most frequently asked questions about the financial fiasco in Oregon’s public pension system are: What happened? Why did it happen? Who created this mess?

Here’s a brief video primer on the key events leading up to the state’s $22 billion pension deficit – an amount roughly equal to Oregon’s general fund or about $15,000 for every household in the state.

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NOTE: The video uses a teacher as an example, but this is not a problem created by teachers, or any particular class of public employees. They just happen to be the largest group of employees with similar jobs, and school districts pay some of the highest contributions to cover their employees.

It’s also important to note that 2003 PERS reforms eliminated the use of the system’s infamous money match formula for newer employees, and made other changes that are gradually reducing pension benefits to the neighborhood that lawmakers originally intended: 50 to 60 percent of final salary for career employees….(read more)


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Oregon’s $22 billion pension hole: How did we get here?

Oregon is grappling with a tremendous pension deficit, estimated at a staggering $22 billion. This financial burden has caused alarm among citizens and policymakers alike, sparking a heated debate on how the state arrived at such a critical juncture.

To truly understand the root causes of Oregon’s pension crisis, we must delve into its history. Like many states in the United States, Oregon provides pensions for their public employees, aiming to ensure financial security upon retirement. Unfortunately, several factors have converged, leading to this significant imbalance in the pension system.

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One primary factor contributing to this dilemma is the unrealistic growth assumptions made by the pension fund managers. These assumptions predicted consistent high returns on investment, averaging around 8% annually. However, the reality has fallen short, with investment returns generally hovering around 6%, leaving the fund unable to meet its obligations. This discrepancy between projections and actual returns has dramatically exacerbated Oregon’s pension shortfall.

Additionally, Oregon’s pension problem has been amplified by the generosity of the pension benefits themselves. Public retirees in Oregon receive some of the most generous pensions in the country, with many public employees eligible for retirement as early as age 55. Furthermore, the pension system provides cost-of-living adjustments that increase payments each year, adding to the overall financial strain faced by the state.

Another factor often cited is the reliance on a flawed method for calculating pension liabilities known as the “accrual accounting” method. This method differs from the private sector’s “market-value accounting,” potentially leading to a significant underestimation of true pension costs. Critics argue that using accrual accounting obscures the full extent of the hole in Oregon’s pension system, adding to the financial burden faced by the state.

It is important to recognize that Oregon is not alone in grappling with a substantial pension shortfall. Various states across the nation face similar challenges, driven by similar factors. However, Oregon’s case serves as a wake-up call, highlighting the critical need for significant reforms to mitigate the situation.

To address this crisis, policymakers in Oregon have proposed multiple solutions. Some advocate for reducing future benefits, such as raising the retirement age, freezing cost-of-living adjustments, or decreasing the overall size of the pension payout. These proposals aim to alleviate the financial pressure and ensure long-term sustainability.

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Furthermore, there has been a push to shift some of the burden from taxpayers to public employees. This could involve employees increasing their contributions to the pension fund, thereby reducing the strain on the state. Alternatively, exploring hybrid retirement plans that combine a traditional pension with elements of a 401(k) plan has also been suggested.

While these proposed changes may draw criticism from unions and retirees who argue that reductions in benefits would be unfair, they are imperative for securing the long-term viability of Oregon’s pension system. Without swift action, the pension hole will continue to grow, placing an increasing burden on future generations and potentially leading to further financial crises down the line.

Oregon’s $22 billion pension hole did not develop overnight, but rather through a culmination of flawed assumptions, generous benefits, and accounting practices that obscured the true extent of the issue. It is crucial for the state’s leaders and citizens to confront this challenge head-on, seeking sustainable reforms that will ensure the financial security of both public employees and taxpayers.

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5 Comments

  1. Dustin T Seloover

    Oregon’s current retirement system it has for employees hired after 2003 is a pittance compared to tiers 1 and 2. It’s not even worth working in the public sector anymore.

  2. tenth try

    1975 money-match at 1:29

  3. Kurtbradwill

    Really not complicated…unions.

  4. Trap God

    Belotti gets $460,000 per year for life

  5. Bingus

    Bottom line we been scammed! Thank God we Legalized Medical Cannabis!

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