#recession #money #recession2023 #money #inflation #deflation #interestrates #dollar #economy #consumer #bankcrisis #oil #gasoline
Even OPEC is having trouble dealing with the growing turmoil in the oil market. Weak demand is forcing the cartel to confront very difficult choices. The reason is because recent price weakness isn’t really just about energy. A whole range of financial indications are pointing once more in that wrong if familiar direction.
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The Most Obvious Recession Concern Is Now Getting Really Concerning
As the global economy continues to struggle with various challenges, the most obvious recession concern is now getting really concerning. With increasing uncertainty and volatility in financial markets, businesses and individuals alike are bracing themselves for what could potentially be a severe economic downturn.
One of the most concerning factors is the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China. The tit-for-tat tariffs and trade restrictions imposed by both countries have created a significant level of uncertainty for businesses that rely on international trade. The prolonged trade dispute has also had a ripple effect on other economies, causing a slowdown in global trade and a decrease in business confidence.
Another major concern is the slowdown in manufacturing activity around the world. The manufacturing sector, which is often seen as a bellwether for the overall health of the economy, has been experiencing a significant downturn in recent months. This has been attributed to a variety of factors, including the trade war, weakening demand, and supply chain disruptions.
Furthermore, central banks around the world have been signaling a more cautious approach to monetary policy as they try to brace for the potential impact of a global recession. The US Federal Reserve, for example, recently cut interest rates for the first time since the financial crisis, citing concerns about the global economic outlook.
The uncertainty surrounding Brexit and its potential impact on the European economy is also adding to the recession concerns. The prolonged negotiations and uncertainty surrounding the terms of the UK’s exit from the European Union have created a cloud of uncertainty over the region, with businesses and investors hesitant to make long-term commitments.
In addition to these global concerns, there are also signs of weakness in the US economy, which has been a major driver of global growth in recent years. The inverted yield curve, a phenomenon where short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates, has historically been a reliable indicator of an impending recession. This has raised alarms among economists and investors.
With all these concerns looming, it is important for policymakers to take proactive measures to mitigate the risk of a global recession. This may include targeted fiscal stimulus, coordinated trade policies, and efforts to boost business and consumer confidence.
Companies and individuals should also take steps to minimize their exposure to economic risks, such as diversifying their investments, managing their debt, and preparing for potential disruptions in their industries.
While the current recession concerns are certainly worrying, it is important to remember that the global economy has proven to be resilient in the face of challenges in the past. By working together and taking proactive measures, we can hopefully weather this storm and emerge stronger on the other side.
Major developments have just unfolded in the bond market, and they're surprisingly under the radar. I strongly suggest you take a look at our latest video here https://youtu.be/D4KsFB3Raz0
The way I see it this recession most likely has an external cause. The United States is losing influence as a federal currency for the first time in decades. They don't have any more economies to utilize to control their inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than previously. They all lend credence to the hypothesis that a new multilateral world order may be in the works.
This year has proven challenging, marked by losses from failed banks, real estate downturns, a struggling economy, and setbacks in stocks and dividends. It seems like everything has been going wrong, making it a particularly tough period.
Every crash/collapse/inflation/recession provides an equal market opportunity if you are properly prepared and knowledgeable. I've seen people amass up to $800,000 during crises and even with ease in a bad economy. Someone has undoubtedly become extremely wealthy as a result of the crash.
yea if biden still drains the spr you should panic because its a crash LOL!. Can you smell it? this guy works for the WEF!
Maybe the coming election has something to do with ‘cheap gas’ ? ……
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Wtf, if that's not fear porn thumbnail what is? He's a sociopath by my definition.
Educate your viewers….2 hr Documentary "The Money Changers" you will know the future and know what to do.
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Oil is most likely to stay flat maybe even until March 2024 (if you lucky, you might even catch a technical knife at ~77'ish levels). I strongly doubt it would go any lower from here (trend structure will be broken if it does). Regarding 'slow landing' … it is very important to mention Time, as in time scale/time frame.
Too many clickbait “this is it” titles. Will it collapse one day? Yes sure, but similar to with Peter Schiff, I’m losing interest when these constant doomsday scenarios which get repeated ad nausea.
It is always good to have a financial plan. I work with a professional planner and fixed-income strategist in NY. The fixed income portion of your portfolio won't simply serve as a buffer to the volatility of the equity portion of your portfolio, but will provide legitimate income.
some are arguing that treasury will be issuing more bonds to pay for deficits in the recession pushing yields higher, but Jeff argues that bond prices are not a function of supply but rather economic conditions. how is this reconciled?
Happy thanksgiving
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Thank for showing sr1 and st3 fwd futures
One thing that differentiates humans from other animals is that we are the only animal that uses external sources of energy rather than our own energy. Energy cost is a key driver of the economy. It is responsible for 90% of inflation. Lower energy cost will grow the global economy regardless of any other factors. There is zero chance of recession at this time because of the massive spending by government plus huge amount of interest being paid on tbills. This flood of spending should overheat the economy.
it's easy to understand that long end rates are dropping based on growth expectations. BUT then, what was the reason for them spiking so high? Did people/entities actually expect such high growth? Doesn't the expectation of the counter party risk enter into the number? I.e. dropping credit rating of issuing entities? It's too simple to say the long rates will drop due to limited growth expectations…as you say though "all things being equal" then that conclusion is straightforward. It's analogous to the pump price of gasoline as the demand is dropping and hence the price…all things being equal. But they WON'T stay "equal" once OPEC+ meets.
75% of Jeff's stuff goes over my head. I thought if I watched enough videos I'd start to catch on… but no.
The Global Economy of Scale is in the process of dieing. Nobody wannts to face it. As a consequence as death draws ever closer the more anxious and shrill people become as their future becomes more uncertain. Their world is being turned on its head as chaos and fragmentation takes hold.
MBS wants OPEC to impose an embargo on the west b/c western leaders support Israel.
70% of the Saudi oil is sold to China for Yuan. In Japan all rates are lower than a month ago.
In China from 3Y all rates are down M/M and from 5Y all rates are lower Y/Y. In Germany and the US all rates are down M/M, but higher Y/Y. Madam Lagarde wants to raise rates. SPX
and the Dow [1M] : the markets flipped lower since Oct 2023. The trend is down, unless
cancelled. Wall street raised the stock prices to take profit, to dump stocks on the cusp
of recession. Warren Buffett will be stuck with a rotten AAPL, b/c Warren is radical B&H.
We've been in recession for over a year now, just like the rest of the world. No contrived GDP stat or Fat Yellen quip can convince me otherwise.
Thanks Jeff
Kindly make relatively short videos of around 8 minutes and talk point to point as it will increase your subscription and we will be able to see full video.
its a humble request.
The stock market has been on a tear over the last month on hopes for a dovish pivot from the Fed, but investors like me have seen this movie before whereby i'm left pondering if to sell off 30% of my $450k portfolio which comprised of plummeting stocks or hold on.
There is no demand issue.
Oil prices are %1000 contrived and don't respect any fundamentals.
The price of oil is set.!
I will be forever grateful to you, you changed my whole life and I will continue to preach on your behalf for the whole world to hear you saved me from huge financial debt with just a small investment, thank you Mrs. Catherine Gauthier.
would be very interesting if you can draw the 3 month rate as far as this is already known by now to the near term forward spread. So how far off the prediction of the market was.
Yeah yeah yeah.
I recently thought that this biggest risk was the FED manipulating the bond market. I now think the biggest risk is the FED involvement in the derivatives market and there are many competitors (insurance companies, banks, other countries, and family offices) are also playing the derivative market. Thinking that we have less than 70 days before the real nonsense starts for a true "liquidity crisis". I guess we have an opportunity to watch the Depression 2.0 in real time.
The most obvious thing this homeless guy needs is a haircut. Get a haircut ya bum.
For Russia, China, and the Islamic-Arabic world, reducing oil production is political. The goal is to cause the collective West to experience a deep recession.
Thanks Jeff, finally I can give you a thumbs up because finally I can understand one of your videos. The graphs are great helpers.
Paaaaanicccc! Once again:
From Nov, 16: A nickel of Contango is absolutely meaningless. It is not signaling a flight to safety, global market meltdown, disinflationary depression etc.
Front month (Dec) CL Futures contracts are in the process of rolling over to the Jan 24 contract (look at the volume in CLZ23 vs CLF24). The Jan/Feb spread is literally five pennies higher right now. The Feb/Mar/Apr contracts are currently in Backwardation.
There is a lot of NORMAL repositioning going on right now before the Dec contract settlement date of 11/20 and the FND of 11/22.
I'm not sure what point, if any, you are trying to make. Are you just trying to make yourself sound like an expert to your viewers? Why not actually teach people about Contango/Backwardation in the CL? If you don't know what you are talking about, then DON'T talk about it!
Crude is up what, 4 dollars? SPY is up 10 plus. Gimme a break, panic pshh!
Your show is so long winded. Try to make it short and succinct down to the point. I always leave your show halfway thru. because it is just too long and winded. I am sure I am not the only one . Why did TikTok become such a hit? Think about it if you are so analytical. People just don’t have that long an attention span. If you want to survive on YouTube, modify your show to shorten it !
Saudis want 80 dollars a barrel they will get it
Corporations have record profits. If it goes bad like GFC they will get bailed out and the shrinking middle class will get screwed the 10 percent middle class that remains. Party down elites and screw the 90 percent
Yes the world economy is in recession especially in China and Germany so the demand for oil is less on top of our green policies and are recession that we are already in but everyone says we're not. And I've been saying that the depression will start in March of 24th
PANIC!!? .. sounds like a reasonable strategy. …-.-…
Long CL 74.88, Stop at 75.38. Keep trailing it up.
Took +125 off this morning and re-entered. Thanks for being on the other side Jeff!