Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist of BCA Research, discusses the health of the economy, when a recession could likely hit, and the Fed’s forward guidance.
*This video was recorded on July 27, 2023
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0:00 – Intro
1:00 – Fed’s forward guidance
2:50 – Housing market
3:50 – Consumer sentiment
5:00 – Labor market
9:10 – Yield curve
10:35 – Q2 GDP
12:55 – Mortgage rates and demand
14:00 – Inflation
17:00 – Credit growth
18:30 – Global growth
19:55 – Stock market
20:44 – Financial conditions
24:10 – Investment implications
26:00 – AI investing
#investing #economy #recession…(read more)
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When The ‘Most Anticipated Recession In History’ Will Really Happen
The possibility of an impending recession has been looming over the global economy for quite some time now. Experts, analysts, and financial institutions have all expressed concerns about an upcoming economic downturn. However, despite the widespread anticipation, the question remains: when will this recession actually occur?
It is important to note that accurately predicting an economic recession is an extremely complex task. Economies are influenced by countless factors, both internal and external, that make it challenging to pinpoint a specific point in time for an economic downturn. Moreover, the global economy is interconnected, meaning that a recession in one country could have a ripple effect across the globe.
One of the key indicators often used to forecast a recession is the inverted yield curve. This occurs when long-term interest rates fall below short-term interest rates, suggesting a lack of confidence in the economy’s future. Historically, an inverted yield curve has often preceded a recession. However, it is essential to recognize that the yield curve is not infallible, and false signals have occurred in the past.
Analysts also study various economic indicators such as employment rates, consumer spending, and business investments to gauge the health of an economy. A decline in employment rates, reduced consumer spending, and a slowdown in business investments may all point towards an upcoming recession. However, these indicators are not foolproof and can sometimes be influenced by other temporary factors, making accurate predictions even more challenging.
Another factor that often contributes to the speculation surrounding an upcoming recession is the business cycle. Economies go through periods of expansion and contraction, and history has shown that a recession tends to follow an extended period of economic growth. As the current global economic expansion enters its eleventh year, concerns have naturally emerged regarding when the next contraction will occur.
Moreover, geopolitical issues and policy decisions can greatly impact the timing of a recession. Ongoing trade tensions, political instability, and unexpected policy changes can disrupt global growth patterns. Uncertainty surrounding various global events can make it difficult to accurately predict when the ‘most anticipated recession in history’ will finally materialize.
It is important to remember that even though experts have speculated about the timing of an imminent recession, economic forecasting is not an exact science. There have been instances in the past when predictions of a significant recession have proven to be unfounded. Additionally, numerous economic policies and interventions can be implemented to mitigate the severity and duration of a recession, further complicating forecasting efforts.
Therefore, while the possibility of a recession has garnered significant attention, it is impossible to determine precisely when it will occur. As the old saying goes, “there are two types of economists – those who cannot predict recessions, and those who don’t know they cannot predict recessions.”
Instead of dwelling on the when, it may be more constructive to focus on strengthening the fundamentals of economies, such as investing in education, innovation, and infrastructure. By implementing sound economic policies, governments and institutions can help create conditions that minimize the impact of a future recession and ensure a sustainable and resilient global economy.
Travel and tourism is way down in Alaska.
David i love your channel and wish you the best. I dont even know this guy but financially we are living in 2 parallel universes that dont jive with one another. This guy is basically saying everything is fine and maybe a recession in a year. What does the other iniverse say. Credit card debt is exploding, mortgage interest rates are north of 7 percent, cars are being repoed at record rates, commercial real estate is on the skids, gas is going back up, 60% of americans cannot scrounge up $600 of emergency funds, bankruptcies are exploding, banks are not lending, homrs have become too expensive to be affordable by the middle class, airbb business is down over 30%, i could go on all day. What this guy is saying just doesnt compute in the real world. Somebody is wrong.
Rich are going to get even richer, got it.
I wouldn’t listen to anything this guy has to say!
We are in a recession.The stats ar BS
Our corruot government has not and will not tell we the people the truth
If you use the standards from 20 years ago, we've been in a recession for 16. The middle class has been all but decimated over the last decade
Thank you
For the past 20 years or so, general inflation has been primarily driven by central banks' asset price inflation programs derived from ZIRP, QE, and general money printing. Regardless, I've been investing since last summer and have made about 430k so far. With the assistance of Joseph Sylvan Anderson, a Financial Professional. I believe that most people are one information away from overcoming financial difficulties and living a fulfilling life.
Why nobody talk about factor of depopulation of the US?
Amount of jobs is there but if more people die then born then unemployed will go down. President of usa want reduce population in usa.
Surely in real dollar terms we are in a recession compared to last year. You have to take into account inflation. Please explain how growth in real terms does not outpace inflation is this not a recession?
Wrong,wrong,wrong. Rent moratorium in California ends in September, millions who were not paying rent,not paying utilities, not paying student loans, will soon have zero discretionary income. Credit card interest rates are approaching 30%, home loans are in the 7’s, auto loans can be as high as 15% on a used car. The economy is headed for a huge downturn by the end of the year. I’m almost 60, I’ve seen this cycle many times
Housing market looks resilient?? What? Economy is strong? What?
I think it will come 2025
Well I'd like to have this guy on with Gareth soloway comparing their charts!
I WOULD TRUST YELLEN SAYING NO RECESSION THAN A HEDGE FUND LAWYER WHO AVOIDED ECONOMICS CLASSES AS TOO HARD AN ELECTIVE?
Powell is still a half a percent behind? THEY PHUKN LAUGH AT ANYTHING HE SAYS OR DOES!
The word transitory added a large amount of basis points to the job?
Powell laying across a pile of spreadsheets on the office carpet sucking his thumb? DATA DEPENDENT!
Powell just missed 2 1/2 % GDP growth and had to panic and exclaim no recession to not look like a complete idiot?
When these jokers finally stop raising rates, throw their asses in a rocket pointed at the big dipper? The last thing we need is a Powell Panic and rates cut to zero again?
If people fear recession is going to happen a recession will happen. If you look at comments of regular people on twitter, fb, ig, tik tok, and these are only a small handful of the platforms, the comments are pretty apparent that we are in recession and these people are cutting back spending or completely out of savings. It’s literally sad to see all these “experts” highlighting government manipulated lagging data. The majority of the world is preparing for something catastrophic, while all the experts are in their cars with the music turned up all the way.
Forget ! Recession think Depression !
Doesn’t the Federal Government “create” more jobs so the bureaucracy balloons and makes unemployment appear low?
Same ole type of doom … keep it coming David!
We said this for months. People are mistaking inflation with recession. How is it a recession when people are still spending outta control?
10:30 nope, last week Powell said no recession
I want David’s hair.
1 bad event can kill the stock market
This guy is talking out of both sides of his mouth, says robust economy then recession coming?
Why call it a recession when we’re in a depression?
you & your guests are nuts!! For the rest of us in private businesses, it surely feels like a recession. No one has money anymore. No 0ne is buying anymore. No one can borrow money now!
This guy seems to think the now means things wont abruptly change. Thats how it always happens, when we are at our most prosperous is when the rug pull happen, Always