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THE 2024 HOUSING MARKET:
Home prices have just recently hit yet another all-time high in November after rising for 10 straight months – more and more Americans are beginning to rush back into the housing market with record down payments – and nearly HALF of those surveyed on Twitter said that they were likely to buy a house in the next 2 years.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT DECLINE IN 2024:
1. LOW AFFORDABILITY
CNN reported that “38.6% of the median household income is required to make the monthly payment on the average home purchase” – and, typically a home is considered “affordable” if the monthly cost is less than 30% of the area’s median income. This, unfortunately, has resulted in 99% of the United States being unaffordable for the average American making $71,000 per year.
2. HIGHER UNEMPLOYMENT
Since 1955 – “the U.S. economy has always experienced a recession within two years from every quarter in which inflation was above 4% and unemployment was below 5%, as they are today.”
3. CHANCE OF A RECESSION
According to Realtor.com, “A recession in 2024 would likely weaken housing demand beyond its current low level, and if it were significant enough, it could stress existing homeowner finances enough to prompt some to sell, reversing the supply-demand balance that we’ve seen in the last few years.”
4. EVERYONE THINKS IT’S A BAD TIME TO BUY A HOME
Only 16% of people believe that now is a good time to purchase a home, which is a record low.
WHY THE REAL ESTATE MARKET MIGHT CONTINUE GOING HIGHER:
1. LOWER INTEREST RATES
Jerome Powell indicated that we’re likely going to see 3 rate cuts in 2023 of 25 basis points each, which would take the federal funds rate down to 4.5%, and likely leave us with mortgage rates leveling off around the 5.5-6.5% range.
2. MORE SELLERS IN 2024
Recent research suggests that the “30-year fixed-rate mortgage falling to 5.5% is the “magic mortgage rate” that would be enough to push more home buyers to purchase homes.”
3. THE US IS NOT IN A RECESSION
According to Jerome Powell, the economy is gearing up for a Soft Landing in 2024 because inflation is largely under control, GDP is strong, and consumer spending is robust.
4. SEASONALITY COULD BE THE ONLY DROP IN PRICES
Even though most seasonal pricing tends to be a difference of 8-12% off the sales price, some locations, like the Northeast and Great Lakes, lead the nation with a “22.1% variation between summer and winter sales,” which means right now could be a good time to negotiate.
5. HOUSING, LONG TERM, TRENDED HIGHER (SO FAR)
Over the last 100 years, housing prices have steadily increased as new construction constantly lags the growing population.
HOW TO PREPARE:
1. GET A 30 YEAR MORTGAGE
A 30-Year mortgage gives you the flexibility to still make a lower minimum payment and save the extra money if the circumstances require it.
2. GET A FIXED INTEREST RATE
This prevents your payments from suddenly being increased 5-7 years in the future if interest rates are somehow higher than they are today.
3. REFINANCE IF RATES GO DOWN
This allows you to save more money on your monthly payments.
4. AVOID SELLING IFYOU DON’T NEED TO
Ideally, by not selling, you’ll have the time to ride out any fluctuations in price long enough for them to recover and bring you back to profitability.
5. ALWAYS KEEP CASH ON THE SIDELINES – JUST IN CASE
The reality is, anything can come up, at any point, that will end up costing you money.
6. ONLY BUY A HOME YOU CAN COMFORTABLY AFFORD
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The housing market has been on an upward trend for several years, but many experts are now predicting that a crash is inevitable. While it’s impossible to predict exactly when and how the crash will happen, there are several factors that could contribute to a significant decline in the housing market.
One of the key factors that could contribute to a housing crash is an oversupply of housing. Over the past few years, there has been a significant increase in new construction projects, leading to a surplus of homes on the market. This oversupply could lead to a decrease in home prices and a slowdown in the market as buyers have more options and less urgency to make a purchase.
Another contributing factor to a housing crash could be rising interest rates. As interest rates increase, the cost of borrowing for homebuyers also increases, making it more difficult for potential buyers to afford a home. This could lead to a decrease in demand for housing, resulting in a drop in home prices and a slowdown in the market.
Additionally, a slowing economy could also contribute to a housing crash. If the economy enters a recession, consumers may become more cautious about making large financial commitments, such as buying a home. This could lead to a decrease in demand for housing and a subsequent decrease in home prices.
Furthermore, a surge in foreclosures could also lead to a housing crash. If a significant number of homeowners fall behind on their mortgage payments, banks could be forced to foreclose on these properties, leading to an influx of distressed properties on the market. This could result in a decrease in home prices and a destabilization of the market.
While it’s difficult to predict the exact timing and severity of a housing crash, it’s clear that there are several factors that could contribute to a significant decline in the housing market. Homebuyers, sellers, and investors should be aware of these potential risks and take them into consideration when making decisions in the housing market.
In conclusion, there are several factors that could contribute to a housing crash, including an oversupply of housing, rising interest rates, a slowing economy, and a surge in foreclosures. While it’s impossible to predict exactly how and when a housing crash will happen, it’s important for those involved in the housing market to be aware of these potential risks and plan for the possibility of a downturn.
Here is a link containing the source material for each piece of research cited. I do my best to make my videos as accurate as I can, and the additional resources should help anyone who wants to look into them further – enjoy! https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dF1G8ATARTjWwjhyPoiaus3iCHHbIrZjnWy4JUllvcs/edit?usp=sharing
Stop the bs each time your guys say it will drop it goes the opposite
You are pretty funny g
Graham, if supply isn’t greatly increased, we won’t see prices drop significantly. We just don’t have enough housing. Prices may come down but I don’t think we’ll see anything close to what we saw in “08. People will just have to rent from those with the money to build large multi-family.
One thing I've learned, things may happen, but never in the timing its expected.
DOOM tubers have been calling a crash for YEARS. STILL WAITING!!!!
I’m looking for a seller finance deal in South east Texas. Harris county area. If anyone has anything, let me know!
Build your own house
great content
You are ALWAYS saying the market will crush! I didn't bother to watch the video, I just saw the thumbnail and came here to drop this comment!
My Dad bought 1/3 Acre lot and built a house on it in 1974 for 40K.
His annual salary as a PhD at a local college was 12K.
He raised a family and paid the mortgage on a single salary.
He sold it in 2008 for 450K.
Those days are gone.
Everyone is F'KD
Don't deliver disastrous news as if it's a baseball game. Valid content, poor presentation.
Nobody looks at Japan. What happened there will repeat itself globally
Devil's advice
Housing crash it will not happen
This only applies to the US.
I love getting advice from a real estate investor. Why don't you invest in something that isn't a basic human need, and maybe we would see housing at an affordable price. Just slimy
I don’t think people know the true definition of what a housing crash is lol. Housing market is NOT going to crash folks.
There will be no housing crash , no matter what happens government will print trillions to lift the lenders out of the mud. Housing and warehousing will explode mortgages can be extended to 50 years . In essence making everyone renters not home owners.
I get calls every day from people who have been evicted , and looking for a rental. People are struggling. Looks like a recession to me, but I’m no economist.
truly an annoying pitch.
He was saying this over a year ago… Still no housing crash
The difference here for unemployment is population, early boomer and X retirements. We have poorly performing immigration for many years. That's largely why, and if has caused wage losses for corporations and small businesses.
This guy moves his hands more than a DEAF INTERPERTER
Rates are high- but that means competition is low. Many on the sidelines waiting to hit the market when rates drop down again. Can’t believe we were at 2.85apr just a few years ago… Bidenomics!
i clicked this video just so i could downvote it. This guy is purely click bait, he has no idea and doesn't care about u
Unless UE goes way up or people stop wanting to live under a roof theres no way prices are going down.
More click bait crash bro garbage.
I thought the retiremen of the Babyboomer was going to cause a glut of big homes and a resulting housing crash as retiees moved ot Florida. I think instead people have stayed in their homes and are working longer blunting any price decrease or crash.
Just ignore used housing markets and if buying or buy new let home owners keep it forever.
This guy already said Americans would run out of money by January 1st. That was a lie. Why would anyone believe this kid
different year same message…you know at some point you will be right…
South Florida is totally different from the rest of the country, specially Miami. What would be your forecast for Miami and South Florida in 2024?
It's not going down because of investors buying up everything with cash. Blackrock and Vanguard are causing this because if they fail, our government bails them out with our tax money.
I really appreciate all the YouTube financial gurus who have accurately predicted all 36 housing market crashes that have happened in the last six months. I know it takes a lot of work to make those sad face/lighting strike/house on fire/fed chairman’s laser eyes/ chart pointing down with no context thumbnails. Keep up the good and honest work.
Great… it seems that we still will need to be millionaires to own a house in next few years. Fk that – I hope demographic collapse will at some point destroy this bubble.
There can’t be a crash. There aren’t enough buyers or sellers.
Everyone who bought a house in the last 15 years (and has a mortgage) isn’t going to sell or buy.
Wherever you are right now is where you’re going to stay
Car insurance went up by $35
Health insurance went up by $17
Electricity went up by $45
Apartment rent went up by $100 a month
Everything else went up by 30%-40%
It is so hard to survive nowadays.
F buying a house, living in an apartment is so bad. That im thinking to go homeless.
They just raised $100/month when i signed the new lease. R u kidding me. Im am not able to survive I don't know what to do.
On the "get a 30 year loan, and pay it off early if you want to", watch for two things: front loaded interest, and pre payment penalties.
Been in the business a long time. Be careful what you share and how you share. Your best clients will become your worst enemies if you spin things, they buy, and you end up wrong.
The problem is that even with my income in my area, there are no homes that I can afford. Literally no homes. With a higher than median income
The problem is we can’t even afford to buy a house in California as a first time home owner
No housing market crash.. rates drop and assets will skyrocket . Houses will be more expensive