Last – last Thursday we had a horrible CPI print and the market rallied nearly 3%. Nobody knew why, but I’ll tell you why. That day at 9:30, the open was the first time the SPX and DJI were at a discount in terms of 12 month trailing valuations, for the first time since March 16, 2020. You know what happened on March 16, 2020? If you were around, you’d know that volatility peaked on the 16th. It also peaked that Thursday.
These two facts are the reason there has been unfettered buying – institutions and retail are playing this market like the COVID downturn, and if the COVID downturn taught you anything, it’s that fundamentals don’t matter, and if the fed were to actually bring the pain, this nation would be insolvent.
There is record liquidity in the system, you will never see cheap assets. That’s why there was unfettered enthusiasm in ad stocks after SNAP roiling 30%, and the Dow soaring 900.
We hit the bottom, I have a 4,000 dollar bet with my 67 year old father that this is the case, and I’m willing to make the following additional bets, found at the bottom.
Record cash is flooding back into the market, electronic trading has killed reasonable valuations, and as someone from the mid 80s it hurts, but you have to roll with the punches and throw money in this fraud, speculative driven market, it’s just the way it is.
MODS
If SPX does NOT close up 2% on Monday October 24, ban me for a week
If SPX reaches a new 52 week low, before making a new 52 week high, ban me permanently.
If SPX does not reach 5,000 in 500 days, ban me permanently.
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1 month old account asking for ban? What’s going on in here?
I dare you to buy calls and post screenshots 
If you are so confident you have to start sticking things up your ass if the predictions fail… getting banned is zero consequence
There’s a reason your more experienced father is betting against you.
Might as well just ban the op. Let’s get this over with mods.
Buying puts on OP’s call options!
> Record cash is flooding back into the market
where do you get access to this data?
I predict total liquidation of the bond market in q1 this bear market is just getting started. Feel free to ban me now.
Such a brave bet to make on a 45 day old account lmao..
!remindme 6 months
Look at bonds you potato…. QT is just getting started
Bro. The fed isn’t done so the market bottom isn’t in. It’s that simple. Have fun catching the knife.
This guy is regarded.
>I highly recommend you buy stocks, options, and futures.
Can someone put this text over mel gibsons speech in braveheart
In correlation, this guy’s wife bottomed for her boyfriend 1 1/2 weeks ago also.
TRUST ME BRO
Good luck catching a falling knive. Happy to write any call that you want to buy.
In March 2020, the market bottomed on OpEx. That was right after the Fed had announced they were lowering rates. Had nothing to do with discounts.
The only fundamentals that matter are either dictated by the federal reserve or are completely unexpected by market participants. Events that people expect to happen are not really events at all.
There is not record liquidity. That is simply false.
Your dad is older and smarter. You’re gonna lose the bet.
What happens on Monday means very little.
You have a 4k bet, I have 1.5 milion in puts. We are not the same
And this is what happens when you do crystal meth
It’s unlikely this is the bottom, but it is likely that we are in the start of what could become a bear rally. Puts are expensive and crowded out, and there’s already evidence they are unwinding.
Might wanna wait till after Thursday earnings on apple before calling a bottom. Its a pretty crucial week for earnings. If the market is going to get a big downturn i would bet its likely this week imho.
Can I haz ur Stuff?
Bruh the bond market is fucked. I don’t think people understand how important the bond market is wrt the ~~casino~~ stock market.
For simplicity’s sake, imagine you’re an institution with the classic 60/40 core position worth $1M at the top. Your stocks are down 30% and your bonds are also down 30%. You’re down $300k
If you are using this position for a very conservative 7x margin leverage, you didn’t just lose that $300k, you actually lost $2.4M worth of capital in the market since the top.
With debt being much more expensive to maintain, we are seeing high quality corporate bond yields spike, and they aren’t going to relent any time soon. This means bonds could have a further distance to drop. As these bonds drop further, the market will also fall in tandem contrary to popular belief and historical behavior, because collateral has become critical to ~~casino~~ stock market liquidity.
The only way I see you being correct is if the Fed DOES NOT pivot, and instead decides to wind down the reverse repo facility, forcing banks to put that money to work. And where are they gonna put it to work? You guessed it: the bond market.
“Record cash is flooding back into the market” also means “records cash is leaving the market”, you know that right? Right??
You’re so wrong it’s cute
Short term bottom yes.. probably hit 400-410 in next 3-4 weeks , then we make a new bottom
Damnit this means we are no where near the bottom.
There might be an end of year rally already forming but no fucking way your second prediction comes true 2023 is going to be a shit show as for the third prediction 500 days is a long time could see new highs in 2024
Jesus christ shut the fuck up. Why can’t any bull regard accept this growth was skewed by incredibly generous fiscal policy. Shit is overvalued. Inflation is high. The world is again multipolar and in turmoil.
Do you realize the risk free rate will be over 4% soon?
Why will risk assets rally?
Wow a bullish 45D old account LMAO
Jerome Powell will send his regards Nov 2.
Matters if the fed is actually taking back there 7.2 trillion (whatever they want to say it is) in printed money. If so there wont be a recovery in 500 days it will remain about the same. Also the fed graph of what they want to happen shows only down mommentum till 2025.
Like you really want to get into how much the feds let into the economy look at the debt clock, bonds, printed money. Like there is no way its only 7.2 trillion.
Yes of course it bottomed. The rate hikes, inflation, war, possible recession…all have already been baked in.
People who are getting greedy expecting further big declines, retail investors who think they know better…they will all realize it soon.
Then the complaining starts.
Given the comments to this post, I’d say you’re right, but I’m going to wait until fomc before I decide what to do. If the fed is dovish like clown ass techbull Mary Daly, I’ll cut. If they’re bearish because they realize rates still aren’t even in restrictive territory, I’ll hold.
There is a Small rally next week(we already know this is going to happen)
and OP is gonna be “I tOlD yOu So”
And then it dumps all of November.