As the stock market continues to fluctuate and economic indicators show signs of weakness, many experts are beginning to speculate that the United States may actually be in a recession right now. While the official definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, there are several factors that suggest the US may be heading towards, or already in, a downturn.
One of the most telling signs of a potential recession is the inverted yield curve. In August 2019, the yield curve briefly inverted, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond falling below the yield on the 2-year Treasury bond. This phenomenon has historically preceded every recession in the US since World War II. An inverted yield curve is seen as a harbinger of economic trouble, as it indicates that investors are worried about the future and are seeking safer investments.
Another troubling sign is the slowdown in manufacturing. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index fell to its lowest level in more than a decade in September 2019. This contraction in the manufacturing sector is likely due to a combination of factors, including the ongoing trade war with China and weakening global demand. If this trend continues, it could have a ripple effect throughout the economy, leading to job losses and decreased consumer spending.
Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy, has also shown signs of weakness. Retail sales have been mixed in recent months, with some sectors experiencing growth while others struggle. The uncertainty caused by trade tensions and the looming specter of a recession may be causing consumers to tighten their purse strings, which could further slow economic growth.
In addition, business investment has declined, with companies holding back on spending due to uncertainty about the future. The manufacturing slowdown, trade tensions, and global economic instability have all contributed to a decrease in business investment, which could lead to job cuts and a further slowdown in the economy.
While the US economy has been relatively strong in recent years, with low unemployment and steady GDP growth, there are growing concerns that a recession may be on the horizon. With the inverted yield curve, slowing manufacturing sector, weak consumer spending, and declining business investment, the signs are all pointing towards a potential downturn.
It is important for policymakers to take these warning signs seriously and take steps to mitigate the impact of a potential recession. Measures such as fiscal stimulus, monetary policy adjustments, and trade agreements could help to boost economic growth and mitigate the effects of a recession. Only time will tell if the US is truly in a recession, but the warning signs are certainly there.
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Gringos: keep feeding wars in other countries and see your own dying, you idiots !!!
We voted for this economy.
Recession or not, its feels like one because prices are sky high. People dont have as much to spend as before.
My company laid me off but kept the number under 500 to avoid the WARN Act and minimize the severance so I only get 7 weeks
Get 4 side hustles and never be in recession.
No shit
Nothing will happen till elections over..
The REAL unemployment rate is sky high but these are cooked numbers.
The American greed is truly something to study. The fed didn’t have to do any QE since 2018. The engines of economics with technological advancements was going to make rich richer anyway by its functioning basics. But Fed Hyper charged the wealth transfer by debt where only 20% of that wealth trickled down to bottom 80% of population. But the pay back of that debt is evenly distributed. Truly a repeat of gilded age minus a civil war. How these federal reserve, bankers and politicians sleep at night is beyond me.