I believe there is a lot of potential in Blackberry (BB). I’m not a WSBer, but all the investing subs have blocked my posts because BB was caught up in the meme stocks, so WSB is the only place left. This post focuses on a new product called **Blackberry Ivy**, launched in partnership with Amazon AWS.
If you haven’t been following BB, they no longer make phones and have transitioned to software. Their two main plays are cybersecurity and IoT, with a specific focus on QNX, a real-time operating system currently installed in 215M+ vehicles on the road. While cybersecurity has been disappointing, QNX has been steady and shows promise. QNX is used by 24 of the top 25 electric vehicle manufacturers (only missing Tesla) and medical/industrial equipment. You will see articles saying QNX is being ditched for Android Automotive, but this is just for infotainment. QNX is still in these cars for safety-critical systems and runs below Android Automotive. To use a crude analogy, Android Automotive is like Chrome and QNX is Windows. However, this post is on a new product, called **Blackberry Ivy**, which has no known competitor and is first-to-market.
**What is Blackberry Ivy?**
Ivy is an auto software product that processes and standardizes sensor data both in the car and in the cloud. It allows for applications do be built more efficiently in cars and, in my opinion, will transform the auto apps market just like Apple app store or Android/Google Play did to phone apps.
To give just one example of what Ivy could do, imagine being a third-party app developer who wants to build an app for the auto market that recognizes when a vehicle occupant has fallen asleep, so the vehicle environment can be adjusted for a more enjoyable ride (e.g. The app would turn off air conditioning near that person, turn off volume from closest speaker, etc.). The way to determine if an occupant has fallen asleep is by using data from an inward-facing camera. However, the auto manufacturer would never grant access to raw camera data to a third-party app developer. This is where Ivy comes in. Ivy standardizes the outputs, so you do not need the raw data. The data from the camera is sent to Ivy, where it is processed to standard outputs (e.g. Driver = awake, Front-Passenger = awake, Rear-Right-Passenger = asleep, etc.). The app uses these standardized outputs to create some action in the vehicle without ever seeing the actual video feed.
An app created with Ivy can then be used with any auto manufacturer using Ivy software, creating a much larger app market. A developer no longer has to make separate apps for Ford and BMW vehicles systems, he can just build his app with Ivy and that will work on any car using Ivy. (Think how cell phones used to each create their own apps, until Android allowed them to share a common marketplace). This is especially important for niche apps that already struggle to find a market.
The previous example is just a single example. There are numerous use-cases that can be described for vehicle payment systems, insurance, car maintenance, etc. with many of these already in the works. There is also tremendous potential for a consumer-focused or novelty app marketplace. For example, Spotify could make a feature in their app that identifies the occupants and their music preferences, so the vehicle only plays songs that the most number of occupants would enjoy. That way someone who loves country music will not have to suffer through a rap playlist (e.g. In-ward facing camera sends video data to Ivy, Ivy outputs: Occupant ID: 30432493, Occupant ID: 34824492 are sent to the Spotify app, which uses an algorithm to cross-reference these IDs with playlists and finds songs both occupants would enjoy. Spotify never has to see the raw camera data, yet it gives them a great feature for their app. The car manufacturer benefits because they can create a better driving experience without having to spend a lot of money developing niche apps). This, of course, assumes some level of permission has been given by the occupants to be identified.
**What is Blackberry Ivy worth in revenue?**
BB’s SAM estimate of $800M for Ivy in 2024 suggests Ivy could be worth up to $36.36/car/year (based on \~20M QNX vehicles and \~2M Tesla vehicles being produced in 2024). I encourage you to do your own calculation. Let’s say Ivy is worth $10/car/year (with BB getting a 50% cut for $5/car/year). Multiply $5/car/year by how many cars you think may adopt Ivy and be on the road for any given year (remember, BB QNX is currently installed into \~20M new cars each year, with the EV market set to grow).
If all 215M+ cars that currently run on QNX had Ivy, that would produce $1B in revenue each year. I believe Ivy will eventually bring in $1B/year for BB, the question is will it take 5 year or 10 years to get there. Keep in mind, BB’s total revenue for FY 2022 (essentially calendar year 2021) was $718M, so this would be a significant jump in revenue.
BB’s SAM disclosure for Ivy can be found here @ 24:17 (Note: FY 2025 for BB is essentially calendar year 2024): [https://wsw.com/webcast/oppenheimer23/bb/2273700](https://wsw.com/webcast/oppenheimer23/bb/2273700)
**What would this do to the stock price?**
BB would now be valued more like a high growth stock. BB currently has a P/S ratio of 3.1. High growth stocks like Crowdstrike (11.6), Cloudflare (16.4), Datadog (15.0), and ZScaler (12.7) all have much higher P/S ratios. If BB were to be valued similar to these companies (e.g. P/S ratio of 15) that would put the stock price at $15.92/share just for 2024. **This target stock price does not take into account any future revenue from Ivy, only BB being valued more like a growth stock based on current revenue.**
**Will Blackberry Ivy actually be adopted by auto manufacturers?**
There have been a number of recent indicators suggesting Ivy will be adopted by auto manufacturers. Ivy is a 50/50 partnership with Amazon, but it is only in the last couple of months that Amazon AWS engineers have become more vocal about Ivy. Sure, Amazon is involved in many ventures, but this seems different. Ivy was featured a number of times at Amazon’s re:Invent 2022 conference just a few weeks ago. Amazon’s general manager of automotive name-dropped Blackberry Ivy during a presentation and that presentation had two other speakers: a senior vice president from Stellantis, who spoke about how Stellantis (which owns Dodge/Fiat/Chrysler/Jeep/Opel/Peugeot/Ram/Vauxhall) is transitioning to a software-defined vehicle, and Amazon’s general manager of automotive technology, who discussed BB’s QNX operating system and how Amazon was bringing it to the cloud. Here is the presentation (Ivy name-drop after 13:00): [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Tse4B-fnbI](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Tse4B-fnbI)
The inclusion of Stellantis in a presentation discussing BB Ivy and BB QNX is notable. When the first live demo of Ivy was presented at Bosch ConnectedWorld 2022 in November, the vehicle used in the demo was a Peugeot, a brand owned by Stellantis (Bosch, a leading supplier for automotive, is also partnering with Ivy). At the earnings call last week, BB announced they will be demoing Ivy at CES 2023 in a Jeep Cherokee, another brand owned by Stellantis.
[Ivy live demo at Bosch ConnectedWorld in November](https://preview.redd.it/ldum9emvwn8a1.jpg?width=1125&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=519417edfdb6e37f082ad1f47fafde651d810e44)
BB announced they hope to have the first design win for Ivy by CES on Jan 5-8 and I expect Stellantis will be the first manufacturer to sign-on to Ivy (If it’s not announced at CES, the next bet would be the earnings call in March). Stellantis’ CEO will also deliver a keynote at CES.
Re:Invent also featured another presentation on Blackberry Ivy being run by representatives from Amazon and Bosch. That presentation was shared by two BMW engineers discussing machine learning. One of Ivy’s selling points is to better allow for machine learning models to be applied to the data generated by the car sensors. BMW also recently signed deals with Amazon AWS and already uses BB QNX. Here is the presentation:[https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI2RwYUN92E](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SI2RwYUN92E)
It’s an interesting coincidence that Stellantis and BMW are in presentations that discuss/mention BB Ivy, as well as doing public demos in Stellantis vehicles.
The AWS/Bosch presentation on Ivy had a very interesting slide showing companies that are already partnering with Ivy and showing some potential use-cases for Ivy:
https://preview.redd.it/f0o8xzuzwn8a1.png?width=1090&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c94d6b3741ce24375f0bc3c6a4ed5790035bb9a
Notice TomTom is mentioned for location-based services. TomTom recently announced a collaboration with Amazon, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft to create a new open map data system known as Overture Maps Foundation to counter Google Maps’ dominance. Does TomTom plan to send their own version of a Google Street View car around the world? No. It appears that TomTom plans to leverage the data already being collected by software-defined vehicles on the road. How can TomTom use data from different auto manufacturers, each with their own systems? Ivy standardizes it. TomTom can then use the improved maps to service consumers. Auto manufacturers bring in additional revenue selling the data collected from the vehicles and consumers get greatly improved mapping services. Everyone wins. And it is Ivy that facilitates this. (Credit to [u/snoutandtruffle](https://www.reddit.com/u/snoutandtruffle/) for bringing TomTom to my attention. I recommend reading every one of his posts about Ivy as he is the best at spotting new info, IMHO).
Blackberry Ivy is also agnostic, meaning manufacturers don’t have to use Amazon AWS cloud or BB QNX in order to use Ivy. This gives them complete control over the data.
**Final Thoughts:**
I’m not here to pump and dump a stock. I’m also not claiming BB will become a $1T company. But, I believe BB will be successful and will become many times more valuable than it is now. Time will tell. Keep an eye on BB. Set reminders for Jan 9 and Mar 31 and see if any auto manufacturers have signed-on to Ivy. If they have (especially if Stellantis is named), come back to this post with a new set of eyes.
I am long BB with a price average below $10 CAD. I have held for 4 or 5 years (pre-meme). A merry Christmas to you and your families.
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Literally all you needed to say was that Cramer was bearish on BB. But instead, you write an essay and expect us illiterates to read it.
this is the only DD you need…
https://preview.redd.it/xcq6e3szlp8a1.jpeg?width=750&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=b17931f0fad5fd8e355c2a1138e5ae6b37b3db01
Alright grandpa, let’s take you to bed
Blackberry: You can have emails sent you you immediately with our proprietary protocol! Just pay an addition fee per user.
Microsoft: Here’s active sync. It’s included in Exchange
Blackberry: *surprised pikachu face* well, I guess that’s the end of us.
Your analysis sort of completely forgets history. If bb is doing anything novel, Android will just design something similar and call it a day.
Also, Android Auto communicate directly with the CAN bus. There isn’t a lot of middleware there for good reason. BB’s tech is more like a plug in. It’s wholly replaceable. This is not business reinvention. And their cyber security is a joke.
Source: I ran secure coding at Android for 3 years, worked on Android Auto going into the Polestar and have spent 15 years in cybersecurity and threat intelligence.
Literally lighting your money on fire will have more of an ROI because the fire produces heat.
This is not new, Ivy is the reason BB got caught up in the meme hype
[deleted]
$36.36 per car per year is insanely wrong
For context, do you know what Garmin or HERE get paid for maps and routing, which is many this more useful? Less than a third of that
So yeah, that estimate falls on the pulled-it-out-of-my-ass category
started build my position last week, will add more as time goes.
A few things to look for at CES:
OEM Announcements. Stellantis is most likely but potentially others could announce. Any OEMs working with Amazon and running QNX are in the mix to eventually adopt ivy. Wildcard announcements from Zoox, Rivian, AWS?
QNX business model adjustments. There is an investor call on January 6th. BB announced that QNX is moving to the cloud via Amazon Machine Image. This is going to push up the ARR for Qnx. BB increased their QNX revenue backlog in the first half by more than any previous full year. My current thinking is that OEMs and third party Developers wanting to run AI/ML at the edge are going to be increasing BB QNX revenue before ivy gets installed in any vehicle. Any changes to their outlook based on this change?
IVY revenue clarity. Does the January 6th investor call provide additional details on potential on the market opportunity and revenue?
Developer announcements. Who is signing on to use IVY? It appears that TomTom is making a major play for automotive and is an IVY partner. They claim to have 50 automakers signed up on the platform. Check out the TomTom market day presentation on the automotive opportunity for more information. CerebrumX is partnering with Ford to do usage based insurance. Who else announces?
IT/IOT Integration news. Blackberry plans to make some product announcements on cybersecurity based on ivy. Their CTO gave a présention at their security summit alluding to this opportunity. Current annual subscription revenue for their CylancePROTECT service is $40/year/device. Do they provide any clarity on integrating QNX/Cylance (which they demo’d at CES 2020) using ivy?
The next three months is critical for Blackberry.
Brilliant analysis!
Only problem with this is that we are in a phase of growth companies getting slaughtered and not treated like princesses. Profit and cash will matter more then growth until the Fed turns the printers back on.
Thank you for the good material.
Now this is a wendys what is your order.
“All the investing subs have blocked me.”
Holding strong here!
I’m hodling close to a thousand shares. I believe in this company but sadly I’m one of the few …
Please buy more and help me get out of my $15.00 position.
Alright boys and girls, this is what we call a meme stock trader. They were prevalent around 2020 because they won on a couple trades, they’re all broke now.
Lol so you bought pre-meme, didn’t sell during the meme craze when the price was up around 28 bucks, and are now looking forward to $15 a share in over a year…. I’ll pass lol.
Wait I’ve heard the exact same argument last year
The yearly BB DD. WSB has been trying to pump BB since 2017.
Lol so many bagholders in this thread. BB isn’t going anywhere and is accurately valued right now. Some software that could be made completely absolete by a competitor’s update isn’t taking this to $15. I’d love to live in the same fantasyland as OP does
There last earnings was fucking trash lmao
I want what your smoking. Glad I sold at 18, guess I could afford to but a few more and give someone my money.
How am i seeing actual DD on Wallstreetbets? And BB? Have i time traveled back to 2020? If i jerk my past self off is that gay?
Must be a zillion times I’ve seen Blackberry Ivy
I still have some meme bags. I say let it run.
my last 1k, ALL IN (probably will be homeless at the end of the week)
I thought DD didn’t exist here anymore lol
Great job and thanks for sharing. The fact that Blackberry Ivy is agnostic makes the whole story also more interesting!
Tl;dr, but just to clarify, your point about QNX and Android Auto is uh…technically right in terms of where those two sit on the stack, but Google likes to do this fun thing where they have a contest for who the dumbest person at the company is and then they put that person in charge of naming all their products, and their magnum opus was naming the product they are developing to sit at the lower level of the vehicle stack (a level below “Android Auto”)… Android Automotive.
Yes, you read that right, they have one product, for infotainment, called “Android Auto”, and a completely separate product called “Android Automotive” that actually talks to hardware and a/c and is a full OS.
Android Automotive is being adopted pretty quickly, and I think QNX will have a very difficult time competing. Most car companies realize they’re good at hardware but not software, and as such Ford, Honda, GM, Renault/Mitsubishi/Nissan, Lucid, Volvo, and BMW are all moving to (or already have moved to) Android Automotive.
Also, the network requirements for the types of apps you’re describing for Ivy (“detect a sleeping driver”) just don’t exist in cars. That is to say, it’s way way way easier to put a fast cpu/gpu in a car than it is to somehow get something that can maintain constant connectivity on highways — the cell networks are so so far from that. Not to mention latency: most networks on the road will have like 100ms latency, which is way too much for most applications. Can they do some fun visualizations, that are purely for decorative purposes, in the cloud? Sure. Anything mission-critical will remain on-device though.
Hot take, but also aws is a terrible product and it’s run by terrible, completely disjoint teams, so partnerships with them always give me major pause. The only reason they have a lead in the cloud space is because they were first and are good at marketing and not terrible at hardware relative to the others. But they’re the last company I’d bank my company’s next major product on.
How’s their Cylance purchase turning out?
It’s the only Tech company I own shares in and will continue to add to my portfolio.
RKLB is where it’s at
Sure wrote a lot when you could have just said “I have no concept of reality”
BB has been circling the drain since the original iPhone. This isn’t changing.
nah not this shit again