US government bond investors pushed two-year yields above 10-year yields by the widest margin since the early 1980s, a sign of flagging confidence in the economy’s ability to withstand additional Federal Reserve interest-rat hikes. Kathleen Hays reports on Bloomberg Television.
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BREAKING: Recession News
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The US yield curve, a crucial indicator of economic health, is ringing warning bells of a possible recession. In late August, the yield curve inversion became more prominent when the US 10-year Treasury yield traded below the 2-year Treasury yield. This is the first time since 2007 that the yield curve inverted, signaling that investors are more pessimistic about the near-term outlook for the economy.
What is the yield curve?
The yield curve is a graph that shows the relationship between interest rates (yields) and the time period in which an investment will mature. When plotted, it typically shows a positive slope, meaning longer-term investments have higher yields. This is because investors expect to be compensated for the risk they take by locking up their money for a longer period.
Why is it important?
The yield curve is a critical tool used by economists, investors, and policymakers to gauge the strength of the economy. The inversions, which occur when long-term rates are lower than short-term ones, have been an accurate predictor of recessions for decades. Historically, every time the yield curve has inverted, a recession has followed within 12 to 18 months.
Why is the yield curve inverted?
There are multiple reasons why the yield curve has inverted, including falling global bond yields, slowing global growth, trade tensions, and the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts. The US-China trade conflict and Brexit have also led to market uncertainty and pushed investors towards safer investments such as US Treasuries.
What are the implications?
An inverted yield curve implies that investors have lost faith in the near-term prospects for the economy, and are seeking a safe haven for their investments. This lack of confidence could lead to a decrease in consumer spending, reduction in business investments, and lower job creation. A recession can have severe and long-lasting impacts on GDP growth, household incomes, and employment.
What can be done?
Policymakers can take multiple steps to mitigate the impact of a recession. The Federal Reserve can cut interest rates, providing a boost to borrowing and investment, while governments can implement fiscal policy measures such as tax cuts and infrastructure spending to stimulate demand in the economy.
The yield curve’s recent inversion has prompted concerns about a possible recession, but it’s important to note that an inversion does not necessarily mean a recession is imminent. If economic conditions improve, the yield curve could become positively sloped again. However, policymakers and investors should remain vigilant and prepared for the possibility of an economic downturn.
For Oil, Let's go to $140 per barrel! That's your true position!
the game is changed forever when QE is possible
A recession as bad it can be, provides good buying opportunities in the markets if you’re careful and it can also create volatility giving great short time buy and sell opportunities too. This is not financial advise but get buying, cash isn’t king at all in this time.
inverted yield is a stupid indicator, its just an indicator of investor expectations
2023 Brings New Challenges to AI Employment Screening Compliance.
lol its inversed since summer time,
For Biden to win again, 2024 has to be a bumper year. So 2023 is the sacrificial lamb.
They look sad. Watched only halfway.
THE FED IS CLUELESS !!! they have no idea of what they are doing, they are in panic!!! all their models failed to forecast and control inflation and price stability.
they are grinding the middle and lower class while as always pumping up banks with interest revenues and High profits as always!
they no nothing in what they are doing its all a test and research academy
BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) BOJ CHAIRMAN KAZUO UEDA APPOINTED, WHO IS A HAWKISH AS IT WAS EXPECTED THE CHANGING OF ITS YCC IS COMING SOON!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
WOW!!!!!!! BREAKING NEWS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) UK HAS BEEN PERFECTLY TRAPPED BY ITS STRUCTURAL ECONOMIC RECESSION —— > CRISIS EVEN IF UK HAS BEEN EXPANDING MORE AND MORE ITS DEFICT AGAINST ITS BUDGET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
02:00 GBP GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.0% 0.0% -0.2%
02:00 GBP GDP (MoM) (Dec) -0.5% -0.3% 0.1%
02:00 GBP GDP (YoY) (Q4) 0.4% 1.9%
MORE AND MORE GOLD PRICE +ENERGY PRICE (+YEN) GOING UP AND UP IN THOSE REAL VAUES THAT MORE AND MORE SUPER STAGFLATION COMING AND COMING TO HIT THE ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———– > P.S NEXT WEEK TUESDAY ( 14TH) ——- > WE WILL SEE HIGHER US JAN CORE CPI THAN DEC THAT —— > JAN CORE CPI WILL BE + 5.7% – +5.9%!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ——- MEANS WILL BE HIGHER THAN MARKET'S EXPECTATIONS!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGIAN ESP GOLD PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE IN THE RANGE OF 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR!!!!!!!!!!:) BECAUSE OF THE PRICES OF MONEY = US$ CHINA YUAN EURO POUND ARE GETTING DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN AND DOWN!!!!!!!!!!:) + BOJ HAS NO OPTIONS LEFT BUT TO DISCARD ITS YCC VERY SOON IN THIS 1ST Q = MARCH MEETING!!!!!!!!!:)
bunch of avg people who can only understand 2 curves spending 99% of their time discussing bullshits. EVERYONE has minimum 3 investment properties!!
AS A MATTER OF FACT THAT TO GET THE INDICATION THAT SIGNALS RECESSION ——– > CRISIS IS NO LONGER A US 2YR – ITS 10YR SPREAD THAT WILL ONLY SHOW THERE WILL BE MORE AND MORE HIKING OF INTEREST RATES THAT ——– > THE MOST CLEAR SIGNAL TO INDICATE ECONOMIC CRISIS FROM UNBEARABLE DEBT PROBLEMS IS BASED ON 10YR YIELD – ITS FUNDS RATE EVERYWHERE IN CHINA USA EUROPE THE MOST TERRIBLE DEBT DRIVEN ECONOMIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ————- > AGAIN WE ARE SEEING THE LAST MOMENT OF US$ BITCOIN CHINA YUAN (+H.K$) EURO POUND STOCKS BONDS REAL ESTATE SECTORS THAT AGAIN IT'S STILL A HUGE TIME GO AGAINST THOSE TRASH ASSETS INTO MANY MANY YEARS BECAUSE OF MORE AND MORE AND MORE ' MINSKY MOMENT' IN CHINA USA EUROPE ECONOMIES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AS I'VE SAID THAT THE CURRENT BIGGEST FINANCIAL ENGINEERING PROBLEM IN TERMS OF MICRO ECONOMY IS ———– > US 10YR YIELD NOW AT +3.6670% – US FED FUNDS RATE +4.75% = (-) WOW!!!!!!!!!! 108BP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———— MEANS MORE AND MORE US$ THE TRASH LIQUIDITY HAVE BEEN INJECTED INTO THE ECONOMY THAT AGAIN US FED HAS AREADY LOST ITS HUGE WAR WITH THE ECONOMY THAT ———– > INEVITABLY MORE AND MORE SUPER STAGFLATION GOING ON AND ON EVEN AFTER 2030YR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES ALREDY THAT JAPAN + CHINA + OTHER FOREIGN HOLDERS OF US T – DEBT + EUROPE DEBT ARE MORE AND MORE AND MORE AND MORE KEEP SELLING OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF THOSE DEBTS (= BONDS)!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) < ———– DO THEY HAVE ANY OTHER OPTIONS LEFT?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———- > NOPE TO SELL OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF AND OFF THEIR HOLDINGS UNDER GETTING HIGHER AND HIGHER INTEREST RATES CYCLE THAT ALREADY FULLY HAS BEGUN ———- > WHAT ELSE CAN YOU HEDGE AGAINST THOSE HIGH INTEREST RATE CYCLE AGAINST DEBT BUT GOLD + ENERGY (+YEN)?!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! IN FACT NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
IN THE END PBOC HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS LPR AGAINST ITS HUGE DEBT AGAIN ———– > IT IS A BASIC ECONOMIC 101 THEORY THAT ——— > US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE ITS INTEREST RATES FURTHER AND FURTHER OR US$ IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE FURTHER AND FURTHER TRASH INTO COMING DAYS MONTHS AND YEARS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———- > AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES THAT US FED HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT HIKING ITS FUNDS RATE TO THE RANGE OF +7% – +8% THIS YEAR OR IT CANNOT FOREVER QUELL THE SUPER STAGFLATION IN US ECONOMY JUST LIKE LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES AND NOW WE ARE SEEING THE SUPER STAGFLATION IN EUROPEAN TRASH ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN OIL PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO RECOVER ITS 1ST HALF OF THE 2022YR ——– > THE RANGE OF 130$ – 140$ BB/LS THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT ESP FROM CHINA USA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AGAIN AND AGAIN GOLD PRICE HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO HIKE INTO THE RANGE OF 3K$ – 3.5K$ THIS YEAR BECAUSE OF TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT ESP FROM CHINA USA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
DO THE MATH THAT ——- > CHINA POPULATION AGING SPEED IS INCREDIBLY GOING ON AND ON AND NOW ITS AVG LABOR FORCE AGE HAS ALREADY BEEN CROSSING THE MOST CRITICAL RANGE OF 38 – 40YEARS OLD MEANS NOW IT IS 41YEARS OLD MEANS ——— > NO MORE MEANINGFUL ITS DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION GROWTH THAT AGAIN ———– > CHINA HAS BEEN HUGELY CAUGHT BY ITS THE MOST SEVERE STRUCTURAL DEFLATION TRAP THAT WILL BE GOING ON AND ON AT LEAST BY 2040YR – 2045YR BUT IT COULD BE FOREVER BECAUSE CHINA'S DEFLATION HAS ALREADY STARTED BASED ON JUST 10K$ PER CAPITA MEANS ——— > NO CHOICE BUT GETTING DETERIORATED ITS CONSUMPTION ——— > IT'S A 1+1= 2 MATH PROBLEM TO CHALLENGE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
AS I'VE SAID MANY TIMES THAT —— > CHINA GDP GROWTH FOR 2023YR WILL BE +3%+/- 0.5% THAT ITS INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT HAS NO OTHER OPTIONS BUT TO GO WORSE AND WORSE BECAUSE TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO MUCH DEBT + TOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO FASTLY ONGOING ITS DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGING THAT ALREADY CHINESE AVG LABOR FORCE AGE IS + 41YEARS OLD IN 2022YR MEANS ———- > THERE WILL BE NO MORE CONSUMPTION GROWTH IN CHINA (+H.K) ECONOMY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
THIS IS ONE OF THE BIG REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD HAVE GOLD + ENERGY (+ YEN)!!!!!!!!!!!:) ———- > AGAIN CHINA ECONOMY HUGELY BEING STRUCTURALLY CAUGHT BY DEFLATION THAT WILL BE GOING ON AND ON FOR MANY MANY MANY, COULD BE FOREVER GOING ON AND ON!!!!!!!!:!)
20:30 CNY PPI (YoY) (Jan) -0.8% -0.5% -0.7%
20:30 CNY CPI (MoM) (Jan) 0.8% 0.7% 0.0%
20:30 CNY CPI (YoY) (Jan) 2.1% 2.2% 1.8%
AGAIN AND AGAIN ———— > GOLD + ENERGY ARE THE ONLY SAFE HAVEN AND JAPAN YEN IS GOING TO APPRECIATE AGAINST US$ CHINA YUAN (+H.K$) POUND EURO STOCKS BONDS REAL ESTATE SECTORS FROM ESP USA CHINA EUROPE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)
They know they are F… because of the mess that they have created for years, this didnt start now. At this point they dont know how to fix it, no one does. Rates will need to go back like they were in the 80s & 90s almost 10% which was normal, but you do that and you would have a hard stop in growth, not the mentioned wages have barely grown in the last 20years.
Inflation will not go beyond 1% and we will not raise rates untill 2024. Here w are at the start of 2023, inflation is 6.5%, rates are nearing 5%…
Make up your mind u just were saying how bullish u were yesterday.