The very first warning wasn’t eurodollar futures inversion back in December ’21. In fact, it wasn’t even the first inversion. This other one had been and from the very start it had told you how this all was going to play out. Yet, hardly anyone noticed or could interpret its valuable signal. That’s because hardly anyone understands inflation. Especially the Fed.
Eurodollar University’s Money & Macro Analysis
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DISCLOSURES
Jeffrey Snider (The Promoter) is acting as a promoter for an investment advisory firm, Atlas Financial Advisors, Inc. (AFA). Jeffrey Snider is affiliated with AFA as a promoter only and is not in any way giving investment advice or recommendations on behalf of AFA. The Promoter is being compensated by a fee arrangement: The Promoter will receive compensation on a quarterly basis, based on the increase in account openings that can be reasonably attributed to the Promoter’s activity. The Promoter will not be receiving a portion of any advisory fees. The Promoter has an incentive to recommend the Adviser because the Promoter is being compensated. The opinions expressed on this site and in these videos are those solely of Jeffrey Snider and Eurodollar University and do not represent those of AFA….(read more)
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Milton freedman actually said Broadside inflation is always a monetary phenomenom, aka when everything is simultaneously going up at once.
Extremes produce their own opposites.
Is the fact that consumer inflation is not rising the reason why the people in power are creating supply shortages of food production and shortage on gas to create the inflation that they are trying to achieve that does not affect consumer prices.
If you are ever to start making sense, you are going to have to stop using words in ways that don't meet the generally accepted definitions. Your definitions may be correct in some technical sense, but they are not conveying your ideas, hence no communication. Inflation is rising prices across a basket of goods and services that average consumers buy. It is not an increase in the money supply or a supply shock, those are things that lead to inflation. It is also not just whatever increase in prices comes from specific system inputs like a supply shock. You can't redefine inflation as only the increase in prices that occurs when banks lend money increasing the money supply, at least you can't an expect to be understood. Also, your graphic that shows dollars moving around in the direction opposite the arrows is confusing as hell. I think you need to listen to your own words absent their assumed meaning that is already in your head.
The titles of your videos are extremely off-putting.
the economy is a slushfund…
So…..what the E* does the Fed actually do?
Alternatively, there was a sharp, measurable increase in domestic currency supply in 2020-2021, which tapered out and reversed in 2022. So it largely was monetary as far as the domestic economy was concerned. The balloon-like increase in corporate and government debt following the March 2020 crash was also a monetary effect globally, but it was part of a shock rather than a trend, and that will unwind as the debt gets paid down, causing a deflationary monetary effect.
ok so what will happen to the inflation in europe if FED pivots and dollar falls in value …economic colapse?
It's a great analysis Jeff but I don't understand your fixation on the term "inflation". Shock, squeeze, etc. describe temporary phenomena while what we are seeing with regards to prices is likely not temporary.
This is an instructive podcast with a helpful graphic. Thank you. But what caused the banking system to be unwilling to issue credit? I am missing a step. Was it higher prices or employment??
How can we use the employment numbers? They are a lagging indicator. But my concern is the participation rate @ something like 63%. How can the economy grow with SO MANY outside of the employed population?
So what is that mean? Should we start buying stocks?
So temporary, FED/Treasury induced inflation vs. Productive economy induced inflation.
Paticularly enjoyed todays supply shock descripiton Jeff.
HAPPY NEW YEAR to everyone who watches this great channel♥️Despite the economic crisis, I'm so happy I have been earning $60,000 returns from my $7,000 investing every 13days.
Uncertain future of the dollar as a reserve currency and a predictable dollar pritning machine. Countries joining the BRICS, decline of US infrastructure, very uncertain economic future.
See FAKE MONEY World Wide Take The World To A Nuclear END Any Time Now Sorry Math
Love your content it has context, I just think you should change the way it is delivered. No offence your voice is putting me to sleep, maybe work with good sound guy & visual memes like you did this video to break things up.
This is an awesome piece of analysis Jeff. Inflationists just focused on M2 are completely missing the point, the money isn't going to be sloshing around for years, keeping prices going up. It's been pocketted by corps. Too many "experts" not digging deep enough like you do.
TY
Always enjoy these talks, but food prices or home prices don't seem to be coming down. Luxury homes have come down, but not average home prices. Groceries are as expensive as ever. Can't see how the fed will be cutting anytime soon.
I follow and graph out govt bond yield curves (for USA, UK, Canada, etc) and LIBOR/SONIA swap rates the those curves have been inverted (or massively humped and lower at long end) for years.
Indeed, swaps rates are often lower than govt bond yields, especially at the long end. (Weird, since swaps are OTC derivatives, while treasuries are supposed to be the most secure/liquid instruments…..and yet have rates higher than swaps?)
If the markets anticpated high inflation over the long term, I reckon that yield curves and swaps rates curves should be upward sloping, no?
Plz put point summary slides at the end. That way it looks like I watched the whole video, ads and all Yada Yada and I wud just get jist without long winded explanations u less I need to go back if jot convinced with something
I appreciate if he gives a point system at the end
5 years of the same narrative already Jeff
Listening is an ART, understanding is a Masterpiece