Tom Lee, Fundstrat managing partner, joins ‘Halftime Report’ to discuss his end-of-year outlook, narrowing in on the Fed’s inflation goal, and investment opportunities in tech outside of AI….(read more)
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Fundstrat’s Tom Lee: We’re Not Falling into a Recession, We’re Slipping into an Expansion
In the midst of growing concerns over the possibility of a looming recession, renowned analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors has voiced a different opinion, stating that the United States is not heading towards a recession but rather slipping into an expansion.
With his vast experience in the financial industry and a successful track record of predicting market trends, Tom Lee has become a well-respected voice in the investment community. His confidence in the economy’s future trajectory comes as reassuring news for investors and individuals worried about the potential onset of a recession.
Lee argues that while there may be signs of a slowdown, it is important to focus on the broader picture, where growth and expansion still prevail. He emphasizes that the U.S. economy has demonstrated resilience despite various headwinds, such as trade tensions between the U.S. and China, geopolitical uncertainties, and global economic slowdown.
One of the key factors that Lee believes will support an expansion is the strength of the consumer. The U.S. economy heavily relies on consumer spending, which continues to be robust. With low unemployment rates and steady wage growth, consumers have the means and confidence to support economic growth. This positive sentiment is further reinforced by high consumer confidence indices, indicating that Americans feel optimistic about the state of the economy.
Another aspect that Lee highlights is the Federal Reserve’s flexible monetary policy. The central bank has taken a more accommodative approach, lowering interest rates to stimulate borrowing and investment. This move is seen as a proactive measure to counteract any potential slowdown and promote growth.
Moreover, Lee points to the recent positive developments in the U.S.-China trade negotiations. The two economic powerhouses have resumed talks, signaling a willingness to find mutually beneficial resolutions. The easing of trade tensions would provide a significant boost to global economic growth and strengthen the case for an expansion.
While some may argue that certain indicators, such as the yield curve inversion and manufacturing data contraction, raise red flags for an imminent recession, Lee asserts that these indicators should be taken in context. He believes that focusing on the broader economic data paints a more realistic and positive picture.
It is important to note that Lee’s perspective is just one among many, and economic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Financial markets are influenced by numerous factors and can be subject to unexpected shocks. However, Tom Lee’s optimism offers a counterpoint to the prevalent recession fears and highlights that economic expansions can coexist with short-term headwinds.
As investors and citizens navigate the current economic landscape, it is crucial to remain informed and consider diverse opinions. While concerns about a recession persist, voices like Tom Lee’s remind us that economic growth and expansion are still within reach, and that the future may hold more positive surprises than anticipated.
The mainstream mock this guy and Kramer. Unfortunately I've been persuaded by the logic of the doomsayers – Peter Schiff, Experts on Wealthion, Maverick of Wallstreet etc etc..Needless to say I'm sitting on big losses waiting for the recession that never comes. This guy and Adam Khoo have nailed it. They seem to have the pulse of the markets.
Tom Lee also said last year the markets weren't going under 4000, then they went under 3600, if you always take the Bull case history says you're likely correct… but it's hard to give him any credit this year when last year his was completely wrong.
Interest rates are the key. The 2 year and 10 year treasuries became inverted last August, from which there is a 12 month lag for massive unemployment. Add to that inflation and turning back on of student loan payments. The only thing that will cause a big jump in the market will be if the Fed cuts interest rates.
I give him credit, he saw this coming when everyone was bearish in q4.
Our mixed-economy is characterized by economic cycles of boom to bust. The booms are credit-fueled and speculation driven. And, speculation is encouraged and rewarded by how governments have chosen to raise revenue. Specifically, the problem is the failure to capture what in economics are called "rents" (i.e., unearned income flows). As a consequence, "rent-seeking" behaviors that enable nonproducers to claim what others produce act as a huge drag on economic output. While there are many sources of rents an enormous amount of rent is capitalized into land prices. Every parcel or tract of land has some potential annual rental value. To the extent this potential rent is untaxed, the net rent income flow is capitalized by market forces into a price of whatever land is held. Since land is not a depreciating asset, land is a very good asset to hold off the market in anticipation of ever-rising prices. This tendency reduces the supply of land brought to the market, driving up prices ever higher until asking prices impose such a stress on producers that profit margins for businesses are erased and potential purchasers of a residential property are unable to accumulate savings for a down payment or have sufficient income to service the necessary mortgage loan debt. The situation for a recessionary downturn or worse arrives. The depth and duration of the crash then depends on whether government makes the right decisions at the right time.
For more insight into the role of land markets in the economy, I recommend a search for the writings of the long-time professor of economics at the University of California, Mason Gaffney.
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
No matter how hard these idiots try to downplay the strength of the economy, the republicans are wrong again. Most people only need to look at their investments coming back. Mine is up 35% from just last year.
In light of the impending recession and the fact that inflation is still far higher than the Fed's 2% target, several of the most prominent market analysts have been expressing their views on how terrible they believe the next downturn will be and how far stocks may have to fall. I need advice on what investments to make because I'm attempting to create a portfolio for my children that will at least be $850k in value.
Putting well-earned money into the stock market can be over emphasized for first-time investors, unlike a bank where interest is sure thing! Well, basically times are uncertain, the market is out of control, and banks are gradually failing. I am working on a ballpark estimate of $5M for retirement, and I have a good 6-figure loaded up for this, could there be any opportunity for a boomer like me? I'm nearly $1M after subsequent investments so far
Stocks are falling and bond yields are rising, but markets still don’t seem convinced the Federal Reserve will pursue plans to keep increasing interest rates until inflation is under control. I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $117k stocck portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market?
Jeff Bezos in a tweet yesterday said “Yep, the probabilities in this economy tells you to batten down the hatches” pretty jarring line from Jeff Bezos who by the way isn’t a doomsayer. At this point I think it best we learn way to make the best of our situation. Recession is looming.
It's amazing this guy keeps appearing on TV. His predictions are so bad.
In the end, home prices will drop. Take a look at how much the new mortgage rates have impacted the average mortgage payments. To that, we may add the worsening economy and stricter mortgage regulations. The current rate of growth in the US real estate market is 13% How long it will be until the market returns to normal, I can't say…SMH
this guy is actually regarded
Once upon a time, I was an eager investor. With high hopes and dreams, I diligently built my investment portfolio over the years. But as the tides of the market turned against me, my once-promising investments began to crumble. Stock prices plummeted, bonds defaulted, and my hopes faded away. With each passing day, my portfolio dwindled, mirroring the sinking feeling in my heart. I watched helplessly as my hard-earned savings vanished, leaving behind a lingering sadness and a stark reminder of the unpredictability of the financial world. I'm here again because I want to get back on track.
Wake up and smell the coffee. You’re average working middle class American will cause the recession. They’re swiping that credit card more then ever, The pop is inevitable. You all can talk big tech blah blah all you want. No middle class, no backbone to the economy.
this cnbc shill has no shame. he will do anything to tow the cnbc line.
I have been disabled since 2009 and I am 58 years old at the verge of retirement. My portfolio of $750k is down to $492k, How can I profit from the present market" , I mean I've heard of people making up-to $250k in couple weeks during this crash and I'd like to know how.
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
Tom Lee thinks higher interest rates and lower EPS from s&p 500 push the market number higher.
Lmaoooo dont believe your lying eyes
$SPY $QQQ $IWM KEEP BUYING SPY AND QQQ. WE WILL SEE ANOTHER 30% UP BEFORE ANY PULL BACK FOLKS!!! WE ARE IN A NEW BULL MARKET!
I AM UP 400% SINCE OCTOBER IN FNGU AND LOOKING ANOTHER 200% GAIN IN FNGU!!!
With my portfoIio of $750k. I’m looking for opportunities to profit in a potential downturn, According to rating agency Moody’s, both the UK and the US are set to fall into a recession because of higher interest rates
Tom Lee (Thomas Jong Lee)
Lee was born in Westland, MI, the third child of four siblings of Korean immigrant parents.
His father was a retired psychiatrist and his mother a homemaker turned Subway franchise owner.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Lee_(analyst)
4513
Tom lee is great
Times are weird. The US dollar is losing purchasing power due to inflation while strengthening against other currencies and assets. The stock market, real estate, crypto AND precious metals are down because people are fleeing to the "safety" of the dollar. where else can we put our investment money? I can't afford to see my savings of around $320,000 turn to dust in front of my eyes.
People like him stay bullish no matter what, even in a nuclear war, anyone can do that. Funny a lot of you think he right and smart when he was wrong last year, but markets historically go up so a lot of you think he knows what he’s doin.can’t wait to see him and a lot of you in 3 to 4 months.keep buying.
All signs point to 2023 being a year of significant economic hardship for the entire nation. Put your cash to use straight away to increase its value. I was aware that I needed to invest. I had no idea how quickly a few thousand dollars a month would go up. Though it is. Since 2020, I've made about $600,000.
Verizon should have quieter commercials. Everyone should.
only stupid boomers think there will be a recession
Low IQ bears are so stupid.
Tom Lee is always bullish. And hes always right eventually, as long as we keep printin cash! 32 trillion babayyyy
I am staying cash, thinks are looking bad. I feel like people like this guy want pump the markets to sell
“I think the fed is done a lot sooner then people realize” uhhh people thought the fed would be cutting by now so I don’t think anyone actually knows wtf is going on
CNBC is just pushing the bulls, aren't they? I like Tom Lee's flinching eye, he looks a bit nervous. I also find it interesting that Tom Lee's evidence that inflation is falling is the Michigan SURVEY. "It says people EXPECT 3.3%". He totally ignores CPI which is showing inflation increasing. If you've been to the grocer lately, you know inflation isn't getting defeated. Next to nothing is cheaper now than it was 2-3 years ago.
Slipping into comatose listening to this guy
In SHIB we trust! Money is an issue that everyone has for a better and luxurious life,the basics was hard for me until I started trading Shiba Inu and am now earning $20,000 per week. 0:01
So far Tom is more right than wrong
I like pumper, this time is different.