U.S. recession more likely as per Goldman Sachs

by | Apr 1, 2023 | Recession News




Yahoo Finance Live’s Jared Blikre discusses Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius’ note on the likelihood of a U.S. recession.

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Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s largest investment banks, has raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession. The bank’s economists have warned investors that there is a one in three chance of a recession hitting the American economy in the next 12 months.

The reason for this raised likelihood is due to the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China. The two economic powers have been engaged in a trade war for over a year now, with tariffs being exchanged and negotiations breaking down multiple times. This has not only hurt businesses and consumers in both countries, but it has also had a ripple effect on other economies around the world.

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Goldman Sachs’ economists have identified the trade war as the key factor that could potentially push the U.S. into a recession. In a research note, they stated that “the threat of further escalation of the trade war has emerged as the biggest risk to U.S. economic growth.” This sentiment has been echoed by other economists and experts in the field.

The warning from Goldman Sachs is a stark reminder of the fragility of the American economy, which has already been showing signs of slowing down in recent months. Economic indicators such as manufacturing activity, business investment, and job growth have all been weaker than expected. Additionally, the Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates twice this year in an effort to stimulate the economy.

A recession in the U.S. would have global implications, as the American economy is the largest in the world. It would also have political implications, as the U.S. is gearing up for a presidential election in 2020. It is likely that both Republicans and Democrats would use the state of the economy as a rallying cry for their respective candidates.

While there is no guarantee that a recession will occur in the next 12 months, the warning from Goldman Sachs serves as a wake-up call for investors and policymakers. It is clear that the ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is a major threat to the global economy, and urgent action is needed to resolve the conflict and prevent further damage. The world will be watching closely to see how this situation develops.

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