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Has Inflation really peaked? Some are in the camp it has and some are in the camp that it has not. What does the data say? CPI and PPI have come in better than expected and the market is seeing what investors feel about that! People are looking for any reason to push the market higher! But wait, the Fed is still at the forefront! The Fed has continually stated that Inflation is unacceptable and it is the #1 Priority. The Fed has commented that its policy will cause the Economy some pain. The Fed has said that it will do whatever it takes! The Fed is willing to overshoot rather than fall short! VectorVest has a unique way to truly analyze this question and you will have all you need to make the right decisions!
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Inflation is a key metric that has a direct impact on the economy and stock market. Investors and economists keep a close eye on inflation numbers to understand the health of the economy and make informed investment decisions.
To get a clear picture of inflation, it’s important to understand what it is and how it is measured. Inflation refers to the rise in the prices of goods and services over time. A commonly used metric for measuring inflation is the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which tracks the prices of a basket of goods and services that an average consumer typically purchases.
However, the CPI can be a flawed metric for measuring inflation as it may not reflect the actual cost of living for all consumers. For example, the CPI may not capture the full impact of rising healthcare costs or housing expenses. This is where the Real Inflation Analysis by VectorVest comes in.
The Real Inflation Analysis uses a proprietary calculation that takes into account the actual expenses of households and the changes in prices of goods and services. This provides a more accurate representation of the true inflation rate that individuals and households are experiencing.
One of the key benefits of using the Real Inflation Analysis is that it allows investors to make more informed decisions about their investments. If the inflation rate is higher than the rate of return on investments, then investors are actually losing purchasing power over time even if they generate a positive return. This is because the value of their investments is eroded by the higher prices of goods and services.
Using the Real Inflation Analysis, investors can adjust their investment strategies to account for inflation and ensure that they are generating positive real returns. This may involve investing in assets that have historically performed well during inflationary periods, such as real estate, commodities, or stocks of companies with pricing power.
In addition to helping investors make informed decisions, the Real Inflation Analysis is also useful for policymakers and businesses. Governments can use this calculation to make more accurate decisions about monetary policy, while businesses can use it to make pricing decisions and adjust their strategies for inflationary periods.
In conclusion, inflation is a key metric that impacts the economy and investments. While commonly used metrics like CPI provide insights into inflation, the Real Inflation Analysis by VectorVest offers a more accurate representation of the true inflation rate. By using this metric, investors can make informed decisions about their investments and adjust their strategies to account for inflation.
Inflation peaked a while ago. Raw materials peaked 6-12 months ago, housing has been going down for several months, used car rates have started to go down. Energy had been going down but went up last month but back at lows. New car rates are still high and services is going to go higher for a bit more. The CPI rent equivalent is still way higher then actually inflation (month over month). Rent has been going down for the last few months, but the CPI housing data is still going up by 0.7, so in reality, CPI should have been 0.2, since housing makes up 30% of CPI.
The other side of this is that fed is been pretty clear what it plans to do, it said it was going to quickly raise rates and hold for an extended period of time. In June the estimates were to go to about 4.5% and hold for a year (thru 2023), now it is looking like 5% and hold thru 2023.
I expect the economy to continue to slow and expect the fed to start to lower rates Q4 of 2023 and expect markets to lead this by starting to go up late next summer.
Hey Glenn, thank you another interesting discussion. The CPI data is interesting. However, I believe the Feds preferred metric is PCE. In any case, please double check me on the Fed raising/lowering rates…once the Fed has started to raise rates in response to inflation, I don’t believe historically they have ever stopped raising rates until inflation falls below the respective rate. Given that, looks to me like the Fed will continue to raise rates until the Fed rate is above the inflation rate. Just one more interesting discussion item.
excellent
Do u really believe the federal government
Hey Glenn! I have always been in favor of socially lubricated conversation, exhibit A is when CNBC interviews the CEO of Boston Beer. I have never seen one interview where the CEO and CNBC interviewers both smile and giggle throughout the segment. I have a glass of Sicilian Fiano on this side and will probably have one for you in recognition of your service for your country and for the VVNation! Ooooooooooweeeeeeee! Cheers and Salute!
My take away: inflation is beginning to possibly peak or at least move in the right direction. This would mean to me, the Fed has to continue the course to sustain the improvement. The "letting up" now would be premature and better suited for at least the next go around…at least.
With that, I'm going to listen to the daily report and take profits when the data suggests I should (i.e. MTI and color guard trends). Good luck all!
Inflation better… better than what?? Inflation last October 6.2%. This October 7.7%. Could argue inflation will come down causing deflation & extreme pressure on company margins. Even so food, energy, all the items that we need daily continue to be very high, but hey a used car has come down from ridiculous highs.