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Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

0:00 Intro and CONAB Report
2:43 Where is the USDA Surprise?
3:30 Another Winter Storm
5:44 Ethanol Production is STRONG
7:30 CPI Preview (Inflation)
9:05 Bitcoin ETF Approval
11:24 Cattle and Outside Markets

Conab, Brazil’s equivalent to the USDA, has reduced its forecasts for both Brazil’s soybean and corn crops. The soybean estimate has been lowered by 4.2% to 155.3 million tons, but despite this reduction, Brazil is still on track to achieve a record soybean crop this season. Additionally, Brazil is expected to maintain its position as the world’s leading soybean exporter, with an estimated export volume of 98.4 million tons. Conab has also downgraded its projection for Brazil’s corn crop by nearly 11%, estimating it at 117.6 million tons. Corn exports are anticipated to decline to 35 million tons, down from 56 million tons in the previous year. 🌱🌽🇧🇷

Winter Storm Gerri is set to bring more winter weather to the Plains and Midwest. This storm is forecast to bring heavy snowfall and gusty winds to various regions. It is expected to drop snow across the Central Plains, moving eastward into southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and northern Indiana. The Midwest is likely to experience persistent snowfall and gusty winds throughout Friday. Some areas, particularly in northern Illinois and Michigan, could see more than 6 inches of snow accumulation. ❄️🌬️

US ethanol production increased during the past week, with a weekly output of 1.06 million barrels, marking a 1.2% increase compared to the previous week and a substantial 26% increase year-over-year. Ethanol stocks reached 24.4 million barrels, showing a 3.4% rise compared to the previous week but a slight decrease compared to the same period last year. Implied gasoline demand also saw positive growth, rising by 4.7% compared to the previous week and by 11% year-over-year. Over the last four weeks, implied US gasoline demand has increased by 1.2% compared to the same period in the previous year. 🌽🛢️🚗

Economists are anticipating an increase in inflation for the month of December. The expected rise is estimated at 0.2% compared to the previous month and a year-over-year increase of 3.2%. This potential uptick in inflation could have implications for the Federal Reserve’s plans regarding interest rates. While the Fed had previously indicated three quarter-percentage-point rate cuts by the end of the year, the markets are anticipating a total of six rate cuts. Fed officials have suggested that rate hikes may be finished, but the possibility of rate cuts remains uncertain. The December CPI report, which could provide further insight, is set to be released today. 💹🏦💲

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has approved 11 spot-bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This decision allows everyday traders to buy and sell bitcoin through these ETFs without needing to own the cryptocurrency directly. The new ETFs began trading on the same day they were approved. Bitcoin settled just below $46,000 on the day of the announcement, following a substantial increase in its value since January 2023, when it was approximately $17,000 lower. Some critics argue that this approval could pose challenges for the SEC in terms of investor protection. 📈💰🪙…(read more)

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All eyes will be on the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) this Friday as traders and analysts eagerly await the highly anticipated crop production and supply/demand reports.

There is a palpable sense of anticipation in the agricultural trading community as market participants gear up for what is shaping up to be a potentially game-changing announcement from the USDA. With market dynamics constantly evolving due to various factors such as weather conditions, global demand, and trade tensions, all eyes will be on the USDA to see how they will surprise us this Friday.

One of the key areas of focus for market participants will be the USDA’s assessment of the current crop production levels. With weather events such as drought, excessive rainfall, and extreme temperatures impacting crop yields, there is considerable uncertainty and speculation surrounding the USDA’s estimates. Traders will be looking for any surprises in the USDA’s projections, as they will have direct implications for supply and pricing dynamics for commodities such as corn, soybeans, and wheat.

Furthermore, the USDA’s supply and demand report is expected to provide critical insights into the global agricultural landscape. With ongoing geopolitical tensions and shifting trade dynamics, the USDA’s assessment of global demand and supply could offer valuable insights into the potential direction of commodity prices in the coming months.

In addition, market participants will be closely monitoring the USDA’s projections for stockpiles and inventories of agricultural commodities. Any surprises in these figures could potentially lead to significant price movements in the commodities market.

Given the unprecedented levels of uncertainty and volatility in the global agricultural markets, the USDA’s report this Friday has the potential to surprise market participants in a multitude of ways. There is growing anticipation that the report could lead to significant volatility and price movements, presenting both risks and opportunities for traders and investors.

As we await the USDA’s report, it is important for market participants to exercise caution and prudence in their trading strategies. The potential for surprises in the USDA’s report should serve as a reminder of the importance of sound risk management practices in agricultural trading.

In conclusion, the USDA’s report this Friday has the potential to shake up the agricultural markets in unexpected ways. Market participants will be closely watching for any surprises in the USDA’s crop production, supply and demand, and inventory projections. With so much at stake, the USDA’s report could have significant implications for agricultural commodity prices and market dynamics. As always, it will be crucial for traders and investors to stay informed and adapt their strategies accordingly in response to any surprises from the USDA.